British Sociologist Predicts Possible Collapse in Jehovah's Witness Numbers

by slimboyfat 88 Replies latest jw friends

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  slimboyfat

  overall number of Bible Students loyal to Rutherford declined sharply between 1926-1930 (until the Great Depression took hold in most places)

  I wonder if something similar may happen this time.
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  Leolaia

  Yes, if there is anything that sells the "paradise earth" gospel better than an eschatological date, it is human misery and the dream of a better tomorrow.
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  Awakened at Gilead

  it is doubtful that the internet would have any appreciable limiting effect in "third world" lands where access is restricted to the elite.

  I differ with you on this Leo. When I was in Honduras, all the young ones in the cong were constantly at internet cafes, so we had to counsel several about the dangers of internet chatting . Intener cafes are all over the place, even in extremely poor areas, and at very low cost.
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  neverendingjourney

  Social ties are of course important, but would they be enough to keep people going if they en masse no longer believed in the religion or felt it had lost its way? I doubt it.

  I couldn't disagree with you more. Let me give you a real-life example to illustrate my point.

  I was very good friends with a former Bethelite when I was still in. He spent about four years at Bethel and then married a pioneer sister who sought him out because of his "spiritual qualities." Very few of us thought she ever really loved him, but she was being theocratic and seeking a husband who fulfilled the Society's guidelines. He left Bethel and was appointed elder soon thereafter. Since he learned no real employable skills in Bethel, he relied on the generosity of the friends to land jobs. There were always JWs willing to help out an elder/former Bethelite.

  As the years passed, he and his wife had a child, a child whom he loves more than anything in this world. Before I made my exit, I had conversations with him where I expressed some doubts about offical WT teachings. I hadn't come to grips with my own feelings about the WT yet, and leaving hadn't crossed my mind yet. Nevertheless, any doubts that I expressed sent him into a panic. He didn't want to hear and hysterically repeated WT mantras to me: "read the Society's publications" "you need to pray more" "don't let Satan confuse you." It struck me as a bit odd because nothing I said could be considered apostacy.

  In retrospect, I believe that he got extremely uncomfortable because he was forced to confront inconsistencies that he himself was all too aware of. He had obviously been dealing with a great deal of cognitive dissonance, and was having a hard time coping. In fact, not too long after that conversation it became known that he had secretly been fighting a battle with alcoholims and was removed as an elder.

  Now, it's true that I could be projecting my views on him. Maybe an apostate thought has never crossed his mind and he firmly believes that the WT teaches the truth and is God's only channel. But let's suppose that deep inside he knows it's all a farce. What's a guy in his position to do? If he were to leave the WT his wife would most certainly leave him. Knowing her well, she would take their child and make it as difficult for him to visit them as possible. He would probably loose his job as well because he acquired it through his JW network and his bosses are all JWs. He would become a divorced mid 30's guy with no employable skills who has had his child taken away from him? Is that not a good enough reason to bite your tongue, suppress your doubts, and keep going along with the WT program, at least at a superficial level? If I were in his shoes, I would put up with the excruciating routine of field service and meeting attendance simply because it would be too painful to leave the WT. The price to pay would be too high.

  He's not the exception. There are many others who are in similar positions, where the JW ties run so deep that they would be left alone and unemployable if they were to leave the WT.
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  steve2

  Look at Denmark where there has been stagnation in JW numbers since at least the 1980s: More than 20 years hovering around the same number of active publishers, despite ongoing baptisms.

  I think stagnation in Western countries is the more likely scenario - and to a greater or lesser degree is already happening. Most JWs born into the religion are paralyzed by the dumbo question, "Where else would you go?" which is the kind of question that keeps people locked into bad relationships.
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  Leolaia

  I differ with you on this Leo. When I was in Honduras, all the young ones in the cong were constantly at internet cafes, so we had to counsel several about the dangers of internet chatting

  In case what I wrote was unclear, I was not making a blanket statement that internet access is limited to elites in third world nations; I was saying that where it is limited along class lines, the internet would not be expected to have an appreciable effect in the general population. Access to electricity, computers, and internet varies by community, just as it is in the USA, and certainly urban centres would have greater access than rural areas. With over 85% of internet hosts in G7 nations (which make up less than 10% of the world population), it is safe to say that most of the world is not "wired in" as much as those in the G7.
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  willyloman

  He's technically right, but he's wrong.

  JWs are schooled in cognitive dissonance. They've developed the ability to hold onto conflicting thoughts. Therefore, they can say they go out in FS to preach to others and convince them to take a stand before it is too late - that doing so is part of the assigned work for "Christians" in the last days and that this is proof that they are God's People (like no other).

  At the same time, they can point to lack of any interest in the field, the paucity of results in terms of bringing "householders" into the KH, baptizing them, and converting them to full-fledged dubs... as "proof" that these are the last days, therefore the work is slowing down!

  If times are bad, the end is near. If times become good, the end is even nearer because "at a time you do not think it to be...."

  And so on.

  The sociologist did his research and his findings are sound enough. His projections fail to take into account the effect of CD on the average dub. This seriously skews his timeline for dub self-destruction.
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  Hittman

  I think it's interesting to note that while many assume the Internet is having a big impact on Witness growth this author does not mention it at all in his analysis of possible reasons for declining rates of growth.
  
  That was the first thing that struck me too. Even the most casual internet user is likely to Google "Jehovah's Witnesses" as soon as the conversion process begins. The Internet is not only the antidote for JWs, but for any other controlling cult.
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  Elsewhere

  My instinct tells me that the WTS will gradually decline and die with a quiet whimper that no one will notice.
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  flipper

  SLIMBOYFAT- Very good thread . Thanks for posting it. Steve Hassan mentions in his books on cult mind control " Releasing the Bonds " and " Combatting Cult Mind Control" - that when cults such as Jehovah's Witnesses think they are losing grip on the control of their members , ie. numbers diminishing , people not attending meetings as much , etc cults tend to tighten down the screws of control by making even MORE rules and regulations to keep rank and file members in line. We have certainly seen that in the last couple of years with the WT society condemning higher education, discouraging ANY outside research through internet or reading secular publications , members are told ONLY to read and research WT publications to get answers to their questions ! They are running scared in my opinion. And to top THAT off a witness aquaintance told me recently that the April 15th Witness only Watchtower discourages ANY , " association with inactive ones who speak anything negative about anybody in the congregations or about the organization. "

  That's a VERY general statement - which I'm sure was quite planned by WT representatives. So even negative talk about pedophiles , spouse abusers , ANYBODY in the congregation will be seen as disobeying the WT society and trying to cause divisions. Clever bastards, but still cult mind control villains who are out to always control the rank and file members. And if they gradually piss enough members off by the extreme rules and control - then we will see even more numbers exiting the cult. But I agree with most here - it will be a slow, gradual burning down of the WT empire . I give it maybe 20 to 30 years