by slimboyfat 40 Replies latest jw friends
See the tables on pages 124 and 125 of this book:
Admittedly these statistics don't measure the same thing official Watchtower statistics do (i.e. participation in preaching), nevertheless it is interesting that these figures tell a different story than Watchtower statistics for the same period, and apparently represent a concurrent trend across a number of Western countries.
This study indicates that the Witnesses are declining nearly as fast as the Christian Scientists. Some of these studies indicate as much as an 8% negative growth - which is catastrophic.
I have suspected for a long time that the Witnesses have been padding their membership numbers, particularly in industrialized nations.
It would be pretty hard to deny the Canadian census numbers.
I guess the main avenues of growth are the Third World countries.
Bangalore
I don't have any statistical evidence to back this up, but many congregations in my area are slowly shrinking. The main reason for the shrinkage is the exodus of the young people. There is one congregation that is almost entirely full of people 30+, mostly with no children, and most of the capable brothers are 50+. So there are brothers in their sixties carrying the microphones because there just aren't any younger males. I hate to see the old guys shuffling around, half-awake trying to deliver the microphones, but it must happen. This particular congregation is in a relatively small Kingdom Hall, so the shrinkage isn't as visibly apparent.
There is another congregation in a much larger hall that looks completely deserted because of all of the early departures. They have even had to get elders shipped in from other congregations. When you go to one of their Thursday night meetings, you wonder if you are in the right place because there just isn't anybody there. The same six or ten people answer all of the Watchtower questions.
Because the territory isn't producing any more recruits, these two congregations will end up extinct within the next few years, probably swallowed whole by some of the larger congregations in adjoining territories.
Strangely enough, the congregations that are doing well are the ones where many of the publishers and elders are financially well off. The parking lots are full of pricey SUVs, Mercedes-Benz, Audis, and other vehicles as they try to keep up with one another in vehicles and house sizes. But since they can't really one-up one another in home size or vehicle price anymore (they are all about even), now they try to outdo each other with their vacations. Still, their Kingdom Halls stay packed. I don't know why unless they somehow they feel like they are going to miss something if they don't show up.
If you are new to the congregation and you are not able to keep up with them financially when they have their outings (shopping sprees, vacations, Saturday trips out of town, etc), you are going to be left out.
I don't know how I got so far off-topic.
Anyway, back to the point - I have noticed that many, many congregations are shrinking and it's not due to people moving away.
So basically, he is bringing out that his studies of the data out there concur with this guy Starks, in that JWs are in decline in US, Canada, Austrailia, and New Zealand. He theorizes that it could be due to certain stricter religious movements reaching "market penetration," and that there is only a certain small number of people in the population that will be itnerested in such strict religions in the first place. Also, he thinks that "new forms of Protestantism" offer more attractive options for people than the "straight-laced" religions of LDS and the Witnesses.
He later goes on to explore the notion that strictness is necessary for the growth of a religion. This is something that has been discussed quite a bit on JWD over the years: whether the WTS is becoming less strict and more mainstream, and if they are, whether this is in their best interests. Some people here have explained that such leniency in church policy and doctrine can only reduce loyalty to the organization.
Thanks for posting Slimboy !
This info. confirms what we all know is happening in truth,despite the WT's efforts to obfuscate the figures.
It is interesting that the author posits the view that the reason for the decline could well be that the market for "strict" (=wacko) religions has been saturated, in other words the Dubs are running out of suckers.
The more that info. gets out about DF'ing and other looney stuff the harder it will be to find a convert.
Thanks again for posting.
love
Wobble
The more that info. gets out about DF'ing and other looney stuff the harder it will be to find a convert.
And I think this is one oftheir greatest conundrums. To get new converts they need to not look so wacky and irrelevant. But in stripping away their stricter doctrines and policies, they alienate long-timers.
Basically, if they do it this way, they will be in a state of transition for a long time, where their old adherents die off and new ones redifine the religion itself. Of course, we don't know what Governing Body 2.0 will do... as others have mentioned, some of them are just as strict as the old timers.
The WTBS has been doctoring its numbers for some time. 15 min makes one a publisher? Cut in pioneer hours etc.
I think the comment about market penetration is spot on. If I'm selling Lamborghini's I am well aware that there are only so many people that will shuck out $150,000 a year for a car they don't want to take out in traffic. There will always be a few new nutcases that need somebody to lead them through life by the nose, but with the advent of the internet, a lot of people that might have been pulled in won't be.
The figures do present clear evidence of widespread and sustained decline in the number of people who choose to describe themselves as Witnesses. We should however bear a number of caveats in mind:
1. Although the figures show JWs decreasing during the period, they nevertheless consistently credit JWs with significantly higher numbers than their own strict method of counting members results in.
2. Is it possible the census questions have changed slightly over time? The UK 2001 census pretty much encouraged all Christian denominations to class themselves as "Christian", and only a ridiculously low number like 30,000 Witnesses bothered to create a separate entry to specify "Jehovah's Witness".
3. While the trend in Mormon numbers might look good in these tables compared with the Witnesses, I have read a number of reports that the LDS Church campaigns when censuses are being conducted to encourage inactive members to identify themselves as Mormons. To my knowledge Witnesses have not conducted similar campaigns. (Except perhaps in European countries where there are financial and legal incentives for the Watchtower organization to claim as many members as possible)
4. One could possibly argue that the contradictory internal versus census trends show that nominal Witness membership may be declining, but the number of those committed enough to spend time on the ministry is still increasing.
How many of the hours reported in preaching are spent knocking on empty doors? The hours to converts ratio is pretty small.
Bangalore
