Proof Jehovah's Witnesses have been declining for nearly 20 years? (At least in the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand)

by slimboyfat 40 Replies latest jw friends

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  dissed

  Visiting my mother-in-laws Lutheran Church you notice almost everyone is older and their are few children.

  The KH's of the JW's are migrating in the same direction. It used to be when children became a responsible age they left with only a small number of them coming back. But.....

  With the web and sights like this, fewer are coming to their JW senses and returning once they learn of the support available to them upon leaving.

  From what I'm learning, eyewitnesses to low JW meeting attendance, etc..those numbers estimating on the decline may be on the conservative side.
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  TheOldHippie

  "Parents are also now able to count time studying with their children - another clever trick to keep the annual worldwide report looking respectable. "

  NOW able to do so? Well, they have for all my 30+ years as an insider been able to do so, so that just ain't a contributing fact.
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  Joker10

  Don't get excited. The most recent ARIS study from 2008 shows 1,914,000 people identifying as Witnesses in America. That is a 44% increase from 2001. That is 583,000 more people!

  http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/reports/ARIS_Report_2008.pdf

  Both Australia and New Zealand will show positive increases in publishers for this year's annual service report; with Australia showing another 2% increase.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Don't get excited. The most recent ARIS study from 2008 shows 1,914,000 people identifying as Witnesses in America. That is a 44% increase from 2001. That is 583,000 more people!

  That's a different measure so you are not comparing like with like. I think that was a telephone poll wasn't it? And the sample size for JWs was quite small, whereas a census is not a sample, it is comprehensive.
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  wobble

  I like the point made, in Slimboy's original post, that any increase, in some of the religions, is not significant when compared with the increase in population for the same period.

  This pop. increase makes the decrease in JW's even more dramatic.

  Love

  Wobble
• 

  yesidid

  "Parents are also now able to count time studying with their children - another clever trick to keep the annual worldwide report looking respectable. "

  NOW able to do so? Well, they have for all my 30+ years as an insider been able to do so, so that just ain't a contributing fact.

  You are correct OldHippie, the father or the main conductor has always been able to count the time.

  The difference is that recently the mother is also able to count the time, so there is an extra four hours a month for each mother.

  y
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  jwfacts

  Joker10, assuming that report is accurate, it shows 0% growth over the last 20 years in comparison to the population. in 1990 there were 0.8% of the US population claiming to be JWs and in 2008 there was 0.8% of the population. Therefore despite preaching they are only able to keep up with population growth.
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  hamilcarr

  After skimming through the methodology used in the latest report, I don't think there's any reason to suppose the numbers are not accurate. I believe they show the opposite of what this thread is trying to prove. JWs are one of the few established christian churches that are not declining, they even picked up growth again after a small dip in the nineties.
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  slimboyfat

  After skimming through the methodology used in the latest report, I don't think there's any reason to suppose the numbers are not accurate.

  Which report? Whatever the merits of the methodology used in any particular measure, for diachronic analysis I think it's always preferable to compare statistics that were gathered in the same way. That's why I think it is dubious to compare a result from one measure, one year, and a different measure from a different year, and act as though you can work out an increase or decrease between the two. It's a different measure. If the different measures were conducted in the same year the chances are you would have got a different result. So what would Joker10 do then, work out the increase within that year or what?

  However what I thought was most interesting about the census figures is not simply that they differ from Watchtower figures for the 1990s, it's the fact that they show a completely different trend that is significant. According to the figures in the Watchtower the number of Witnesses in the US in 1990 was 816,417 and that increased to 945,689 in 2001. That is an increase of 16%. Contrast that with the census figures that show a 4% decrease over the same period. Combine that with census results from Canada, Australia and New Zealand that similarly contradict the trend shown in the official Watchtower figures and I think we can say there is a significant discrepancy.

  I agree with you by the way that JWs are nevertheless doing a lot better than most other churches in keeping members. Most other Christian groups are declining much faster in Western countries.
• 

  Doubting Bro

  Thanks for the link sbf. Interesting reading. I do agree with your assessment that it is quite interesting that the census figures are showing a much different trend. I don't know what the US census questions will be next year, but if they ask to identify with a religion I certainly wouldn't mark down JW. And, as far as the local congo thinks, I'm an active supporting member who turns in a fs slip. I only go so as not to lose family relationships, yet I give no money and don't believe much of what they teach.

  I wonder if this reduction on such a confidential form is really an indication that there are way more folks in my situation than the WTS believes? I do agree with the statement that there are way fewer walk away believers than before, likely because of the information available debunking the believe that the WTS is God's chosen organization. I'm sure that has a big part in the census results since before people who were df'ed would still identify as JW even though the WTS considered them birdfood.