How are the figures for scandinavia? (norway, sweeden, denmark, finland).
Worldwide Service Report for 2010 / Yearbook 2011
by Designer Stubble 55 Replies latest watchtower bible
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davidl7
Alanov stated: "Just done some quick number crunching and most of the report does show quite good increase for them.
However the interesting thing I found was the following
Average publishers 2009 =7,046,419 Average publishers 2010=7,224,930 = 2.5% Increase
Average baptisms 2009 = 276,233 Average Baptisms 2010= 294,368 = 6.5%
So it shows 6.5% increase in baptisms and only 2.5% in average publishers
So as usual they attract new ones but then lose many of them after their baptised"
I disagree with your conclusion. The problem with that assessment is that thousands are counted as publishers even before they are baptized....there are cases of individual preaching and reporting as a non-baptized published for over 4 years before getting baptized...so, in fact, there is really no loss in membership. In fact, I would say that the official number of those preaching is actually less than those preaching. Thousands who are studying and accepting the Bible truths are preaching to their families and neighbors, and yet that preaching activity is not counted.
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factfinder
david17- I agree with you. Years ago I was in a cong. where various ones I worked in FS with did not turn in FS reports. I knew they had hours to report- they did not think it was important to do so. I remember meeting parts urging all to report their fs and why it was important to do so. Even when I gave up meetings I still did informal witnessing and placed literature without reporting it.
Yes- the baptism figure (294,000) is already included in the pk pub figure(7,500,000). Its just that those publishers got baptized during the 2010 SY. Some witnesses do take a while before getting baptized. I began reporting fs every month and was counted as a publisher each month for about one and a half years before I decided to get baptized.
Baptism figures are useless in trying to determine how many fall away. You'd be using the same numbers twice as everyone baptized is counted as a publisher all along and you have to be a regular publisher at least 6 months before you can be accepted for baptism.
How did Scandinavia do in the reports?
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davidl7
Mongolia stated "Yep, the overall numbers continue to increase, but the demographics are shifting at (relatively) lightning speed.
A generation (non-overlapping) ago, industrialized nations led the charge. Young people worried about societal upheavals & the planet's future joined in.
Today, it's the dirt poor 3rd-worlders and the mentally or emotionally ill who are streaming in.
Great, they've got all these people getting baptized. Now what do they do with them? They don't contribute $$$."
Where are you getting your information from? I know several college professors that have become Witnesses, all new converts since 2005. I was recently introduced to a former Mormon, who studied archeology to find proof that the Book of Mormon was the truth...instead he became disillusioned as he came to the conclusion that archeology proofs that the Book of Mormon is a fable, unlike the Bible, in which the cities, monuments, kings, peoples, etc, are proven to have actually existed. He just got baptized accepting, true Christianity...
And what do you mean by 3rd-worlders.. I was just in Argentina, and, again, I met 2 fairly recent converts who are college professors, including one historian. I also met a former Catholic priest who studied in Rome. Many of the people in the 3rd-World nations are very well educated, and some are becoming Witnesses. Latin America is rapidly becoming a largely middle class economy, with people who are very literate, and as a result many are reading their Bibles (usually their Valera or Moderna versions), and are becoming Witnesses as they discern that the churches of Christendom are not teaching the truth of the Bible. And how do you define 3rd World? Are you implying that it is a slow-growth economic nation, with a small educated public?
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alanv
David I agree with much of what you say. However we already know from independant sources that the JW religion is one of the most mobile in the world. It is reliabaly reported that two thirds of those brought up in the religion leave during their adulthood. So the facts already show that many leave.
I think the figures I stated are reasonable. The only thing I didn't include was the approx 1% who die each year. So if those figures are repeated year on year the only conclusion would be that they were indeed losing many. Suposing the baptisms were increasing at 10% per year and publishers increase was 2.5%. Surely that would mean that many were being lost.
I totally agree it does show a 2.5% increase, but it also shows that many are leaving. These figures are not a science they are purely approxamate.
For a more in depth picture of what we are speaking of, go to the jwfacts website where the figures are explained better than my effort.
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stapler99
The analysis on http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php is informative.
I would add one point - the percentage of those baptised who leave is slightly overstated because some publishers never get baptised in the first place.
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yadda yadda 2
Can someone please post the last 5 year's main statistics, so we get some perspective here?
I think a large factor in the decent increases in the last few years is that most of the growth now is in third world or near third world countries, where people tend to have bigger families and families are tighter, so the children are more loyal to the parents religion. We see this a lot in latin American and African countries.
There is also the 2014 factor - I suspect a lot of already disillusioned and tired JW's are just hanging on, quietly hoping the end will come by 2014 or shortly thereafter. If nothing happens by the end of 2015 I think the organisation will suffer a negative statistical trend the same it did post-1975. The Society has never held out 2014 as a possible date the way it did with 1975 though, but human nature being what it is there will nevertheless be a fair number expecting the end to come before the 100th anniversary of Christ's 'invisible presence' and 'kingdom reign'.
Current tougher economic times is also a factor. People flock to religion for refuge when times are tough materially and insecurity levels are high. Many religions are experiencing new growth lately.
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alanv
Hi yadda yadda below is a link to the detailed figures for the past 20 years. It shows all the things we have spoke about very clearly
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Ex-Dub MS
You have to bear in mind that when a publisher forgets to turn in his/her time for the month and then submits a slip for the previous month (cuz you never wanna be irregular--you know, just like with REAL poop :-P) they're counted as two publishers that month. Multiply that by one person per congregation and voila! Tens of thousands of phantom witnesses knocking on doors.
Which is why the 'peak' is total nonsense unless you publish the 'low' number too.
Three kinds of lies, people...
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Mad Sweeney
I guess we're lucky they even bother to publish the average number. They rarely, if ever, announce average numbers from the platform either at assemblies or locally; they always announce peaks.
