Well we now have another ray of “new light” that has flashed forth. It is a new teaching regarding earthquakes. For close to eighty-five years now the core believe of Jehovah’s Witnesses has been the last days teaching that earthquakes have increased in intensity and frequency since 1914. No longer, now it seems it has gone the way of the “generation” that would not die who were alive in 1914. Now we have the great new discovery that there were not more or stronger earthquakes since 1914, almost 40 years after experts and many good men were disfellowshipped for saying otherwise. Do you think it will cause a major review and apology to those who were called apostates and kicked out for pointing out this fact? The article is from the Awake! March 22, 2002 it is entitled, “Earthquakes, Bible Prophecy, And You”
It is interesting to note AlanF wrote a long paper debunking this century old teaching. Can this be the first time known apostates have actually created “new light” for the Governing Body? Read what the article has to say and then compare was has been said for the last fifty years regarding earthquakes and see if you are not stunned by this bright flash of stubborn stupidity in face of the facts. The first half of the article of the 3-22-02 Awake! goes as follows:
“BEFORE his death, Jesus foretold events and situations that would give evidence that this world had entered "the conclusion of the System or things.” That period, he said, would be marked by such things as' pestilences, food shortages, and large-scale warfare. He also mentioned "great earthquakes"
that would occur "in one place after another." (Matthew 24:3,7; Luke 21:10, 11) Was Jesus referring to our day?
Many say no. They assert that the number of earthquakes has not substantially increased in recent decades. In fact, the U.S. National Earthquake Information Center reports that earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude' and greater remained "fairly constant" throughout the 20th century." *
Note, though, that the fulfillment of Jesus' prophecy does' not require an increase in the number or power of earthquakes. All Jesus said was that there would be great earthquakes in one-place' after another. Furthermore, he stated that these events would mark the "beginning of pangs of distress." (Matthew 24:8) Distress is measured; not by the number of earthquakes or how they rate on' the Richter scale, but by the effect that they have upon people.
*Some say that any reports of ~an increase in the number of earthquakes are simply due to advances in technology, which enable more seismic events to be detected.
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Jesus foretold earthquakes in significant number and intensity as a feature of the sign of his presence. (Mt 24:3, 7, 8; Lu 21:11) Since 1914 C.E., there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes, resulting in much distress. With data obtained from the National Geophysical Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, supplemented by a number of standard reference works, a tabulation was made in 1984 that included only earthquakes that measured 7.5 or more on the Richter scale, or that resulted in destruction of five million dollars (U.S.) or more in property, or that caused 100 or more deaths. It was calculated that there had been 856 of such earthquakes during the 2,000 years before 1914. The same tabulation showed that in just 69 years following 1914 there were 605 of such quakes. These statistics are a means of indicating the extent of suffering from earthquakes during this period of history.
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The people of this 20th-century generation living since 1914 have experienced these many terrifying events concurrently and in concentrated measure—international wars, great earthquakes, terrible pestilences, widespread famine, persecution of Christians, and other conditions that Jesus outlined in Matthew chapter 24, Mark chapter 13, and Luke chapter 21.
*** w98 9/15 7 It Is High Time to Awake! ***
“Earthquakes in one place after another” (Matthew 24:7)
During the last 2,500 years, only nine earthquakes have each killed over 100,000 people. Four of these quakes have occurred since 1914.
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“There will be great earthquakes” (Luke 21:11)
It is true that there were major quakes in centuries past; furthermore, with their sensitive equipment scientists now detect more than a million quakes a year. But no special instruments are needed for people to know when there is a great earthquake.
Has there actually been a significant number of major earthquakes since 1914? With data obtained from the National Geophysical Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, supplemented by a number of standard reference works, a tabulation was made in 1984 that included only earthquakes that measured 7.5 or more on the Richter scale, or that resulted in destruction of five million dollars (U.S.) or more in property, or that caused 100 or more deaths. It was calculated that there had been 856 of such earthquakes during the 2,000 years before 1914. The same tabulation showed that in just 69 years following 1914 there were 605 of such quakes. That means that, in comparison with the previous 2,000 years, the average per year has been 20 times as great since 1914.
*** w92 5/1 6-7 The 1914 Generation-Why Significant? ***
Accordingly, the war that broke out in 1914 was accompanied by terrible food shortages, since normal food production was disrupted for over four years. What about “earthquakes in one place after another”? In the decade following 1914, no less than ten destructive earthquakes killed over 350,000 people. (See box.) Indeed, the 1914 generation experienced “a beginning of pangs of distress.” And ever since, pangs of distress have struck with regularity in the form of natural disasters, famines, and many, many wars.
*** w92 5/1 6-7 The 1914 Generation-Why Significant? ***
Title page of Scenario of the Photo-Drama of Creation, 1914.
For further details, see chapter 16 of the book You Can Live Forever in Paradise on Earth, published by the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society of New York, Inc.
[Chart on page 7]
Earthquakes in the Decade Following 1914
Date: Location: Deaths:
January 13, 1915 Avezzano, Italy 32,600
January 21, 1917 Bali, Indonesia 15,000
February 13, 1918 Kwangtung Province, China 10,000
October 11, 1918 Puerto Rico (western) 116
January 3, 1920 Veracruz, Mexico 648
September 7, 1920 Reggio di Calabria, Italy 1,400
December 16, 1920 Ningsia Province, China 200,000
March 24, 1923 Szechwan Province, China 5,000
May 26, 1923 Iran (northeastern) 2,200
September 1, 1923 Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan 99,300
From table “Significant Earthquakes of the World” in the book Terra Non Firma, by James M. Gere and Haresh C. Shah.
*** w88 10/1 5 The Sign-Have You Seen It? ***
“And there will be great earthquakes.” (Luke 21:11)
In their book Terra Non Firma, Stanford University professors Gere and Shah list details of 164 “significant earthquakes of the world” spanning over three thousand years into the past. Of this total, 89 struck since 1914, taking an estimated 1,047,944 lives. This list included only major earthquakes, and since publication of Terra Non Firma in 1984, destructive earthquakes have occurred in Chile, the Soviet Union, and Mexico, resulting in thousands more deaths.
*** w88 10/15 3 The Sign-Proof That the New World Is Near? ***
Since 1914, hundreds of millions of lives have been snuffed out by wars, famines, pestilences, and other disasters. The New Encyclopædia Britannica (1987) lists 63 “Major historical earthquakes” spanning the past 1,700 years. Of this total, 27, or 43 percent, have struck since 1914. The book Terra Non Firma, by Professors Gere and Shah, has a list covering a longer period. Of the total “significant” earthquakes in that list, 54 percent have taken place since 1914. Even granting that records from past centuries are incomplete, we cannot escape the conclusion that in our time mankind has been greatly affected by earthquakes.
*** w88 10/15 3 The Sign-Proof That the New World Is Near? ***
[Footnotes]
The World Book Encyclopedia (1987) lists 37 “Major Earthquakes,” from 526 C.E. forward. Of this list, 65 percent have occurred since 1914.
*** w87 1/15 21-2 Earthquakes-Distress Upon Distress ***
Many seismologists believe that earthquakes are no greater or more frequent now than they were in the past. Conversely, others conclude that our generation has experienced earthquakes more frequently than did previous ones. Based on available records, the 20th century does significantly overshadow the past in seismic activity. Publications of the Watch Tower Society have repeatedly called attention to this, highlighting the Biblical significance of earthquakes occurring since 1914.
Records of earthquakes before 1914 are not complete, however. And earlier generations did not have scientific means of measurement that would permit us reliably to compare the magnitudes of earthquakes past and present. Does this mean that we cannot recognize the fulfillment of Jesus’ prophecy?
No, not at all. Jesus apparently foresaw that history would not record all pre-1914 quakes and that earlier generations would not have accurate seismological instruments, just as he foresaw the other circumstances of our time. Consequently, he did not word the prophecy in such a way that recognition of the fulfillment would require earthquake records from earlier centuries or instrument readings. Jesus did not say that the number of earthquakes in “the last days” would be X times greater than the number during some earlier period, nor did he state that we would see the greatest earthquakes ever. (2 Timothy 3:1) He did not speak as a seismologist.
Jesus focused on the human experience. Earthquakes were to be part of “a beginning of pangs of distress.” (Matthew 24:8) Distress is not measured by instruments. The travail of people is the ultimate measure of a calamity, including an earthquake. For Jesus’ prophecy to be fulfilled, distress caused by earthquakes would have to be present in a significant way. Recognition of the earthquake feature of the prophecy is thus not dependent on the vagaries of human record-keeping or upon scientific measurements of energy released. Today’s reports of earthquakes graphically portray the dimensions of human distress resulting from seismic activity
*** g84 10/22 6-7 The Countdown Nears Its End! ***
EARTHQUAKES
‘There will be earthquakes in one place after another.’—Matthew 24:7; Mark 13:8; Luke 21:11.
The earth shakes from more than a million quakes a year, 3,000 of them forceful enough to move the earth’s surface noticeably. Modern scientific instruments are finely tuned to note and record even the slightest quake. But Jesus foretold “great earthquakes.” (Luke 21:11) Has the frequency of these really changed? It has never required sensitive mechanisms to tell us when major quakes strike. Since 1914 the yearly average of reported severe earthquakes has soared to over 11 times what it was during the thousand years before then. Is more than that required to fulfill the prophecy?
*** w84 4/15 5-6 Do You Recognize the Sign? ***
EARTHQUAKES: Earthquakes occur so regularly “in one place after another” that many pay them little attention. Yet in 1973 the publication Earthquakes warned: “One may have the very uncomfortable feeling that we are again heading for a period of increased earthquake activity. This feeling, very unfortunately, is correct.” Three years later, T’ang-shan, China, was struck by what an American specialist called “the greatest earthquake disaster in the history of mankind.” And how many of the major quakes since then do you remember? Perhaps the ones in Algeria, Italy, North Yemen, Colombia and Iran?
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Modern-Day Earthquakes
Does Jesus’ prediction of earthquakes find a fulfillment in the 20th century? In other words, have there been great earthquakes that indicate we are living at “the conclusion of the system of things”? Facts prove that this century is being rocked by earthquakes. The earth experiences more than 1,000,000 per year, with 1,000 of them being damaging shocks.
Some seismologists believe that the earth is now in an active earthquake period. For example, Professor Keiiti Aki of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology speaks of “the apparent surge in intensity and frequency of major earthquakes during the last one hundred years,” though stating that the period from 1500 through 1700 was as active.
In the Italian journal Il Piccolo, of October 8, 1978, Geo Malagoli observed:
“Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as statistics show. In fact, during a period of 1,059 years (from 856 to 1914) reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes causing 1,973,000 deaths. However, [in] recent disasters, we find that 1,600,000 persons have died in only 63 years, as a result of 43 earthquakes which occurred from 1915 to 1978. This dramatic increase further goes to emphasize another accepted fact—our generation is an unfortunate one in many ways.”
Jesus prophesied that “the conclusion of the system of things” would be marked by “earthquakes in one place after another,” and, according to Luke’s account, “great earthquakes.” (Matthew 24:3, 7; Luke 21:11) Has the generation that was living in 1914, and of which there are still many survivors, witnessed these things? The facts answer, Yes! (See Chart II.) And earthquakes are still being witnessed not only by remaining ones of that generation but by the largest number of people in history. (Matthew 24:34) Mankind today is also more aware of the global activity of earthquakes and their effects than were people in any past century.
What is it that would make an earthquake “great”? Its intensity, or magnitude, as measured by the Mercalli or Richter scale? Or, rather, would it not be its notoriety and the amount of destruction it caused? As the accompanying Chart III indicates, loss of human life due to earthquakes has mushroomed since 1914. And some of them with the greatest magnitude have been deep within oceans, known only to a few, with little if any effect on human property or life. In determining the modern fulfillment of Jesus’ prophecy, we should focus not merely on the magnitude of quakes according to the Richter or other such scale but on the extent of resultant property damage and loss of human life.
*** g81 4/8 29 Watching the World ***
Quakes on Increase?
Earth may be in a period of growing earthquake and volcanic activity, according to Robert I. Tilling, chief of the U.S. Geological Survey’s office of Geochemistry and Geophysics. “There are some suggestions that both volcanoes and earthquakes worldwide are on the increase,” he told a scientific gathering. Tilling said that this could reflect a basic change in movements of the giant rock plates that form earth’s crust.
*** g80 10/8 20-1 Do You Recognize the Meaning of What You See? ***
Has the frequency of earthquakes really increased? The Italian magazine Il Piccolo observed: “Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as statistics show.” And then it produced figures for the past thousand years to prove it.
What does it all mean? Long ago the Bible foretold a time when, along with international wars and food shortages, there would be “earthquakes in one place after another.” (Matt. 24:7) This is now taking place on a scale unequaled in human history. The Bible mentions such earthquakes as part of a composite sign identifying the last days, the conclusion of the wicked world system of things. It also associates them with the invisible “presence” of Jesus Christ, the time when he would begin to exercise God-given authority as king over all mankind.
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During the past sixty-two years Jehovah’s Witnesses have pointed out to their neighbors that all the facets of the sign that Jesus gave have seen fulfillment since 1914. Regarding earthquakes as a feature of that sign, more than 900,000 persons have died because of earthquakes since that year. Counting from about 1,000 years ago, the average yearly death rate from earthquakes was 3,000 before 1914; but since then that average has leaped to 15,000 per year. Jesus’ prophecies about earthquakes apply now!
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If so, remember, we are almost sixty years into ‘the generation that will not pass away until all things occur.’ Its time must be running out! Ask Jehovah’s witnesses to explain in detail Jesus’ prophecy about our time. It is vital to get an accurate knowledge of God’s requirements if you are to survive the fast-approaching end of this wicked system into that foretold paradise earth.—Matt. 24:21; Rev. 21:1-4.
[Graph on page 73]
(For fully formatted text, see publication)
EARTHQUAKE DEATHS EACH YEAR
Before 1914 3,000
Since 1914 15,000
(Approximation based on the past thousand years)
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NO DIFFERENCE IN EARTHQUAKE PATTERN?
Yet some persons say: ‘There have always been earthquakes. This time in history is no different from the past in that respect.’ A scientist asserts in Natural History magazine:
“One notices with some amusement that certain religious groups have picked this rather unfortunate time to insist that the number of earthquakes is increasing. . . . It is worth remarking that the number of great earthquakes from 1896 to 1906 (about twenty-five) was greater than in any ten-year interval since. Apparently this religious concern is associated with some of the words of the Gospels referring to the last days . . . [Jesus’ prophecy] still impresses a seismologist [earthquake expert] as not much of a prediction.”—December 1969.
Is this a valid objection? To answer that question, in your own Bible notice carefully what Jesus went on to say. He did not predict that the above-listed events (including earthquakes) would occur within any “ten-year interval.” Rather, he said: “Truly I say to you that this generation will by no means pass away until all these things occur.” (Matt. 24:34) A whole “generation” is much longer than ten years.
Further, remember that Jesus foretold “great earthquakes.” What is it that makes an earthquake “great”? Is it not its effects on lives and property? But modern earthquake students tend to consider an earthquake “great” only if it rates high on the Richter Scale, which rates “magnitude,” the power or force a quake releases. Some of the earthquakes with the highest magnitude ratings, however, are under the oceans! These have had virtually no effect on men. On the other hand, quakes with relatively low Richter Scale ratings have been among the most disastrous. The Agadir, Morocco, quake in 1960 rated “light” on the Richter Scale. Does that mean that it was not “great”? Certainly not. Twenty thousand persons died!
We must remember that Jesus’ words had a certain fulfillment in the first century C.E. on the Jewish “system of things.” They had no sophisticated scale to measure earthquakes then. But there were, nevertheless, “great earthquakes” and earthquakes “in one place after another” in that period prior to 70 C.E. when the Romans destroyed Jerusalem.
Bible commentator A. Barnes attests to this, saying: ‘Many earthquakes are mentioned as preceding the destruction of Jerusalem.’ Large ones are known to have struck places in Asia Minor, Judea and Italy, including the destruction of a large section of Pompeii in 63 C.E. Obviously, what made those quakes “great” and what fulfilled the prophecy was not the reading on a then unknown instrument, but, essentially, their effects on people.
*** kc 113 12 The "Last Days" and the Kingdom ***
19 Also, “earthquakes” are included as part of the “sign.” An upsurge in earthquakes since 1914? This may sound surprising. But the statistics are even more surprising! As Geo Malagoli commented in Il Piccolo: “During a period of 1,059 years (from 856 to 1914) reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes.” His figures show that during those years an average of 1,800 persons died each year in earthquakes, whereas there have been 43 major earthquakes since 1915, and these have killed an average of 25,300 persons a year.
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22 To add to the troubles, earthquakes continue to rock the earth as Jesus forecast for this generation. Among the most deadly were the 1920 China quake when 180,000 lost their lives, followed by the 1923 Tokyo killer that took the lives of 143,000. Two thousand five hundred died in Turkey from earthquakes in 1966, and official statistics put the number dead in that country from quakes during the twentieth century at 40,000. In 1967 Colombia had its worst quake ever, with 75 dead and 300 injured; in France 1,100 were made homeless by an earthquake; in Indonesia 41 died, 370 were injured and 2,000 homes were destroyed. Sicily, Greece and Iran experienced quakes in the opening months of 1968. It has been reported that the severity and deadliness of earthquakes have increased markedly since the “time of the end” commenced for this old system in 1914. In fact, over 900,000 persons have died from earthquakes in this century, including close to 1,250 in the United States.
*** w69 2/1 69 The Meaning of Present World Distress ***
Also, after 1914 a series of earthquakes rocked the earth, causing great damage. In 1915, in Italy, nearly 30,000 were killed. In 1920, in China, 180,000 died. In 1923, 143,000 died in Japan. And major earthquakes have continued to take place with unusual frequency since then. As Jesus foretold, they are another mark of the “last days.”
*** tr 67 10 God's Kingdom Comes to Power in the Midst of Its Enemies ***
9 Also, after 1914 a series of earthquakes rocked the earth, causing great damage. In 1915, in Italy, nearly 30,000 were killed. In 1920, in China, 180,000 died. In 1923, 143,000 died in Japan. And major earthquakes have continued to take place with unusual frequency since then. As Jesus foretold, they are another mark of the “last days.”
*** w67 1/15 58 As Age-Old Institutions Crumble, Is Survival Possible? ***
EARTH’S MOST TREMENDOUS SHAKE-UP
The description of the effects of the plague continues: “And a great earthquake occurred such as had not occurred since men came to be on the earth, so extensive an earthquake, so great.” Earthquakes are the most destructive of the natural forces that man has experienced, and they are increasing in frequency in our times. One of more than average intensity took place at noon on September 1, 1923, and left Tokyo, Japan, and adjacent cities in ruins. The death toll was 100,000, and 43,000 remained missing. The violence was such that in some fields potatoes were thrown out of the ground. The depth of Sagami bay was increased in places a maximum of 690 feet and decreased as much as 820 feet. The earthquake that destroyed Lisbon, Portugal, in 1903 was said to have shaken an area four times as large as Europe.
*** w67 4/1 198 How We Know We Live in the "Last Days" ***
much of mankind.”4 Similarly, former president of the United States Dwight D. Eisenhower said: “A deterioration has been going on since the first World War.”5
Also, as Jesus foretold, after 1914 a series of earthquakes rocked the globe, causing more damage and casualties than ever before. In 1915, at Avezzano, Italy, 30,000 were killed. In 1920, 180,000 died in Kansu, China. In 1923, 143,000 perished in Japan. And earthquakes have continued to occur with frightening intensity, taking a toll of lives greater than in any other period of human history. Now almost every year sees a major tragedy due to earthquakes. Just since 1960 there have been devastating earthquakes in Morocco, Chile, Iran, Yugoslavia, Alaska, Turkey and other areas. Clearly it makes up another mark of the “fingerprint” of these “last days.”
*** w64 11/15 678 Sign of the Kingdom in Power ***
After 1914, particularly since 1948, great subterranean forces seem to have been at work, convulsing our planet, rippling its surface with tremors and almost annually producing one or more disastrous earthquakes. In 1960 Peru, Morocco, Algeria, Japan and Chile were all stricken, with a total death toll exceeding 26,500. In Chile alone damage was estimated at more than $300,000,000. In 1962 Iran and Colombia suffered from great upheavals, Iran reporting some 12,400 dead. In 1963 Libya, Yugoslavia and Kashmir, India, were hardest hit, with a total of 1,390 dead and some 16,000 rendered homeless. Early this year, 1964, Alaska literally writhed, and damage from the quake and the subsequent seismic sea wave was reported to be in the neighborhood of $750,000,000. Certainly Jesus’ forecast that “there will be great earthquakes” has been undergoing a striking fulfillment in our time.
*** w62 3/1 132 God's New World in Our Generation ***
And “there will be great earthquakes,” said Jesus. (Luke 21:11) That earthquakes have increased in destructiveness during the twentieth century is a matter of record. The first five months of the year 1960 brought the loss of more than 20,000 lives in earthquakes around the globe. But today all mankind is quaking because of world developments and fear of nuclear annihilation.
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“EARTHQUAKES IN ONE PLACE AFTER ANOTHER”
Therefore, for this to be the time of Jesus’ second presence earthquakes would have to be in evidence in an outstanding way. Are they? There can be no question about it. Terrifying earthquakes have rocked the globe with increasing severity and frequency during recent years. A university seismologist declared: “Something is going on all over the planet that is hard to put a finger on. Great forces are at work stirring up things far underground, causing vast land drifts on several continents. The further you are from the last big earthquake, the nearer you are to the next.”
Significantly, since 1914 there have been more major earthquakes than in any previous period of similar length in recorded history. The severest of all, as indicated by modern seismographs, was the Assam quake of August 15, 1950. In December, 1957, Outer Mongolia experienced an upheaval described as “one of history’s greatest earthquakes.” Then, last year, tremendous quakes shook Chile, Morocco and the Persian town of Lars. Scientific American declared: “Major quakes used to occur in clusters, each period of activity being followed by a rest period. Since 1948 the pattern has entered a new phase, with approximately one great quake a year.”
*** w56 10/15 614 When Will God's Kingdom Come? ***
“And there will be great earthquakes.” Without a shadow of doubt these words have also seen marked fulfillment since 1914. Statistics show that for the 2,000 years that men have been keeping records of earthquakes up until 1914 some 4,700 lives were lost each year. But since 1914 earthquakes have been taking an average of 24,200 lives annually. And in recent years the tempo of major earthquakes has stepped up still more.—Luke 21:11, NW.