Billy - thanks for a very well-written OP, which was a joy to read. I felt a little stupid reading it, NOT because I had missed the fact that global figures may be the subject of "creative accounting", but because I was one of those poor burnt-out sods who was chasing their tails whilst still in the Borg to report genuine hours each month. Sure, I tended to cut a few corners (in comparison to others) when it came to what did and didn't constitute 'counting time', but within that reasoning my time was always genuine - and I really struggled as a result. As a failing pioneer (hours wise) I was constantly under the microscope of my local elders, even when I became an elder myself. I realised then how easy it would be to make up the numbers, but that (in my mind) weakened the value of the genuine time I was reporting, so I never tried it.
As far as the worldwide report is concerned, I too believe that, if the results were genuine, the Society would already be reporting "negative growth". An obvious candidate for the skewed figures is the "30 Other Lands", which seem to represent the most convenient opportunity for inflating the statistics if required. It seems obvious to me that the figures are already being manipulated, given how almost-impossible it is to convert unbelievers (i.e. from doorstep to baptism pool) in developed countries. I recently did a thread in which internet usage by country was compared directly with the worldwide report. The results, in my opinion, proved that the information age is having a real impact on the spread of outdated and flawed teachings like those of the Society.
Think about it for a moment. Someone knocks at your door and manages to present a compelling argument that the beliefs of Jehovah's Witnesses represent the only true religion on Earth today. You accept an invitation to have a bible study, based on the premise that what he or she is saying is true. If you were really serious, for even a moment, about seeing this to its inevitable conclusion (i.e. changing your whole lifestyle and embracing a religion that is generally loathed and ridiculed by the masses) you would obviously jump on Google, Bing, Yahoo, Ask - type in "Jehovahs Witnesses" and see what the general consensus is about their beliefs.* You would then be directed to sites like this one, or jwfacts etc, and learn the REAL truth before ever having heard their version in full. You would, in effect, instantly become more educated about Witness beliefs and history than Witnesses themselves - and the next time the person called at your door you would thank them but tell them you've had a change of heart. I'm sorry, but I don't see it happening any other way, especially if you have access to the internet in your own home. This hypothetical scenario seems to me to explain why converting people who have no previous affinity with the organization is virtually impossible in developed countries.
In short, either we are ALREADY in negative growth, or we will be very shortly - but we will never know about it.
The end is coming very quickly, but not the kind of "end" the Witnesses have in mind....
* I personally use search engines for choosing which films to go and see at the cinema by reading their ratings, etc. I can't imagine how choosing a religion would merit any less scrutiny by those who are sincerely interested.