2011 Watchtower publisher statistics with analysis

by jwfacts 220 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  metatron

  If some doctors have asserted that they could get most Witnesses to compromise on blood, as long as it was private, what does this tell you about Witness behavior in private in regard to their "ministry"?

  A life and death choice modulated by fear of peer pressure and willingness to comply as 'man pleasers'...... and you think their "preaching" stats are real?

  Going door to door in pairs is just another time waster to rack up largely empty hours for the cult to add up.

  And the internet? It's effects are mostly indirect, as most Witlesses aren't bright enough to research the Watchtower online. Porn, video games, and money are bigger threats... and how much factual content against Watchtower evil gets translated into Korean, anyway?

  metatron
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  TheListener

  Yadda Yadda 2 I totally agree!

  The time per month spiked yet the amount to gain a convert increased as well. The effectiveness is down because those going out are just ticking the boxes. They aren't really into it like the witnesses of previous generations.

  Could be more people are faking their time and padding their reports so the overall amount is higher but there isn't much productivity.
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  factfinder

  steve2 brings out many good points. With armageddon still being a no show I can imagine more and more publishers becoming more apathetic and not bothering to preach as much anymore. While statistics are interesting and informative, statistics never tell the WHOLE story.
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  JW GoneBad

  Thank you jwfacts. Much appreciated!
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  Simon Morley

  In 14 years of records (I have put in Excel format) the number of publishers has increased 26% while the number of partakers has increased 35%. The rate of growth is now 2.9% per year on average - that means ever year 3 out of 100 publishers ascend to the 114K ring.

  Also, I did a quick comparison of those the total baptized in 14 years vs. the difference between 1998 publishers and 2011 publishers. 2011 minus 1998 = about 1.8 million. Total baptized in that period = 3.9 million. I don't buy that the loss is all based on the natural birth/death rate as one would assume that the majority of those baptized in the last 14 years are generally healthy. There is a huge difference - 2.1 million unaccounted for or about 3.4% per annum (48% over 14 years).
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  Phizzy

  Thanks Simon, math is not my strong point, by any means, but I interpret your figures as meaning that the number leaving, for whatever reason, is HUGE !

  Am I right ? I mean, if the WT had that number of people staying, they would be a much larger religion today.

  And what occurs to me is that, the vast majority of those leaving are people who have lived the "truth", believed it, preached it and supported it an all ways.

  Yet they have found it wanting,deficient, not what it says it is, that makes me think deeply about my commitment, is it misplaced ?

  I still err on the side of thinking that the religion has something of value, perhaps another JW reading this could explain why all these people have left, and why, perhaps they are wrong in their thinking ?
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  jwfacts

  Joker 10, are you purposely misrepresenting what I have presented?

  As I mention on my site quite clearly, figures such as 6,488 hours per baptism are somewhat irrelevant on their own, but it is the trend that is valuable.

  In the part you quoted I identified that the ratio is up because the " Watchtower report has adjusted the population of the US".

  I am not sure why you think I should be including an analysis of South Korea, when I am not examining all other countries in detail. If you think that is valuable, why don't take the time to produce your own analysis and distribute it?
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  cedars

  Joker 10, what do you mean by South Korea being the most "wired" country in the word? If you're referring to internet usage, I think you'll find it's Iceland - so what's your point?

  The point that you make about Witnesses preaching in pairs, and how this should affect the way we look at hours preached per baptism is almost laughable. Of course we all realise this, however the "hours per baptism" ratio is still an important indicator of how effective the preaching work is or isn't, irrespective of how precisely the time is being counted (which doesn't change from year to year, but remains a standard marker). We all know perfectly well that not every hour that a Witness counts is spent engrossed in studying with interested ones, so your point isn't relevant to the discussion.

  The population of the United States could not have increased that much in 12 months. The new number most likely reflects the 2010 census, a number that they did not have last year.

  If you check the Worldwide Report again (assuming you did in the first place) you will notice that for the first time Hawaii is no longer counted as a separate territory, but has been merged with the figures for the United States. There's your "population growth".

  I agree with jwfacts. Perhaps it would be better if you could produce and publish your own detailed analysis of the Worldwide Report to underscore whatever theory it is you are trying to prove or discredit rather than taking pot shots at what others have done.

  Cedars
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  dozy

  The overall figures basically reflect the penetration and rate of growth / decline of "Christian" religions in each land. In Europe , where religious growth is stagnant , JW growth has flatlined. In Latin America , where there is growth , JWs are growing.

  What we often forget is that JWs are just another religion trying to get converts in an increasingly competitive & complicated world. I often remember doing return visits on people who also were visited by Mormons & maybe other religions as well - the very small number of people who are attracted by the JW message often are potential recruits for other religions as well.

  The increase in the number of partakers is going to start presenting a real long term problem for the WTBTS if the growth continues. A 5% annual increase doubles every 12 years or so , so if this rate continues , there will be 40,000+ in 20 years time. How can that be explained away? Perhaps by eliminating the belief in a literal 144,000?
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  Think About It

  There has to be new light coming from the FDS class,the 144000 has to be symbolic of a far greater number to rule the earth,or even the universe

  Get your sunglasses ready. The longer this farce goes on the more insane the teaching is that only 144,000 go to heaven to rule, and most of them are modern times JW's.

  Think About It