by jwfacts 220 Replies latest watchtower bible
I predict a stern Watchtower study article or Questions From Readers in the not too distant future denouncing those who partake of the memorial emblems with any degree of "uncertainty". I can't see any other way that the Society will be able to put the brakes on the dramatic increase in memorial partakers since the 1935 date was dispensed with.
Cedars
only bibilcally illiterate like i was are the ones getting baptized..
Yes jgnat: Affluence and its opposite, poverty, are pretty good predictors of religious devotion.
True to an extent, but and even better indicator is political and economic instability. This book has a good discussion of the subject:
Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide by Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart
Also, I did a quick comparison of those the total baptized in 14 years vs. the difference between 1998 publishers and 2011 publishers. 2011 minus 1998 = about 1.8 million. Total baptized in that period = 3.9 million. I don't buy that the loss is all based on the natural birth/death rate as one would assume that the majority of those baptized in the last 14 years are generally healthy. There is a huge difference - 2.1 million unaccounted for or about 3.4% per annum (48% over 14 years).
Interesting. With the growth rate falling, it wouldn't take much for the publisher numbers to actually start falling.
With the growth rate falling, it wouldn't take much for the publisher numbers to actually start falling.
Who knows what the future holds, but if decline was going to set in you might have reasonably expected it to have started already: the generation prediction failed in 1995, the Internet has been exposing them since the late 1990s, bad publicity on child protection in the mainstream media, book study cancelled in dubious circumstances, numbers of anoined on the increase, and goodness knows what else. Yet they still posted an all time peak for publishers in the UK this year. If all that didn't result in a decline then what exactly would it take?
Who knows what the future holds, but if decline was going to set in you might have reasonably expected it to have started already: the generation prediction failed in 1995, the Internet has been exposing them since the late 1990s, bad publicity on child protection in the mainstream media, book study cancelled in dubious circumstances, numbers of anoined on the increase, and goodness knows what else. Yet they still posted an all time peak for publishers in the UK this year. If all that didn't result in a decline then what exactly would it take?
I firmly believe that if they were measuring today exactly what they were measuring 12 years ago, you would see a decline. Interventions such as allowing people to count as pubishers by recording 15 minutes of time and allowing both parents of chidren to count as active pubishers by both recording time spent studying with their children have fudged the numbers.
I can't speak as to what is happening in other areas of the UK but in our congregation, we have had only one convert under the age of 60 in the past ten years that I can recall. Silver surfers are the fastest growing demographic on the internet though and I think this last stronghold of potential converts will become less productive in the coming years. Incidentally there is not much in the way of a foreign language field where I am and the picture is probably different again in those areas.
Could have any UK islands or territories been merged into the UK stats?; like the merge of Hawaii finally with the U.S. stats?
Actually "peak" pubs. only comes as 1.1% increase for U.S. for 2011. Total of 2010 Hawaii 'Peak' pubs. was 8,786 and 2010 U.S 'peak' pubs. 1,178,349; totaling to 1,187,135. 2011 Report for U.S. 'peak' shows 1,200,572; therefore only 1.1% increase. That's only 1 per cong. average increase. Not dramatic at all!!
Could have any UK islands or territories been merged into the UK stats?; like the merge of Hawaii finally with the U.S. stats?
It doesn't appear so. The Falklands and Gibraltar still appear as separate territories. In any case, I don't think you can compare the politics of the US States with those of the Commonwealth.
Cedars
thx Cedars,, yes,, I see now,, it looks like only "land" merging, was Hawaii, merging to U.S. With only 1 'new land' being "Palestinian Territory." So total "lands" for 2011 is 236 same as 2010.
It is indeed curious that the Society would list the Palestinian Territory as one of their 'lands' when its very existence is a matter of political dispute. Here is the first paragraph from Wikipedia:
The Palestinian territories comprise the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Since the Palestinian Declaration of Independence in 1988, the region is today recognized by three-quarters of the world's countries to be part of the State of Palestine, [ 4 ] although this status is not recognized by the United Nations, Israel and major Western nations, including the United States. Effectively parts of the West Bank are currently governed by the Palestinian National Authority, while other parts are governed by Israeli military authorities, which the UN and international legal bodies often refer to as the Occupied Palestinian Territories. The Gaza Strip is being controlled by Hamas-led Palestinian Government.
Doesn't the Society's recognition of the Palestinian Territory as an entity mean it is making a political statement in support of its existence when many (1/4) of the nations, including the US, does not recognize it? Where is their supposedly neutral position?
