2011 Watchtower publisher statistics with analysis

by jwfacts 220 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  sir82

  An ex-bethelite told me that the GB recon there are only about 2000 genuine anointed left on earth

  Heh, I heard an old timer tell me that....25 years ago!

  If there really were 2000 "genuine anointed" back then, there's likely no more than 50 left today.

  Of course, it's all totally bogus anyway. Saying "there's about 2000 genuine anointed" is a slightly more polite way of saying "the great majority of those who partake are mentally ill".

  There will be "about 2000 geneuine anointed" on the earth for the next 100 years, or until JWs fade into oblivion, whichever comes first.
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  Mickey mouse

  I heard there's precisely 0 genuine governing body members left.
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  jwfacts

  00DAD - Global Financial Crisis?

  Yes, I used GFC for global financial crisis. That along with a string of earthquakes set off the superstitious alarm bells in the all those half hearted inactive JWs.

  If I was a JW I would be opting for Anointed status. Start partaking and spending a few years in a foreign land seems to be a ticket to the GB and retirement security. They have quite a few spots to fill at the moment as well, so could be easier to get on the GB than one would ordinarily expect.
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  dropoffyourkeylee

  In terms of growth, my observation (midwest US) is that the 'growth' they keep reporting is coming from two sources; 1) from children becoming unbaptized publishers, and 2) from re-activation of formerly inactive, such as family members who have attended all along with spouse or parents. There are VERY FEW newcomers who buy into it anymore. I can't remember the last time a respectable couple started studying and came in, as was common in the pre '95 days. The number of baptisms at assemblies is at a level so low I am astonished. Last one I attended had 1 baptized with 750 in attendance.

  A number of people have commented that there is growth in the foreign speaking congregations. My personal observation is otherwise. I have a family member who transferred to a French-speaking hall about 4 years ago. Virtually all their 'growth', increase in attendance, is in additional English speakers who transfer to French. They also pick up a number of immigrants (mostly from Africa or the Carribean) who bacame JW in their home country and attend the French congregation here. This congregation has never yet had a French-speaking convert to accept the message, despite the fact that about half of their congregations are pioneers. Pioneering for them consists of driving around to specific addresses supplied by the English speaking congregations when they run across a French speaker... talk about ineffective... it can take hours just to get to 2 or 3 addresses.

  On another note: The last 'genuine' anointed, and I use the term loosely to mean someone who was a JW and accepted consecration before 1935, died in '89.
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  metatron

  My God! Why accept these numbers as real?

  Allow me to explain: Suppose you are confronted with a corporation on Wall Street that claims to have endlessly growing revenues in spite of obvious problems - and cutbacks, layoffs and production down turns that never stop?

  You would probably avoid investing in the company because it appears to be some kind of a fraud.

  And that's what I keep seeing here. I don't doubt that these numbers are correctly added as received.... but I doubt they represent something completely real.

  Look, ..... if I'm confronted with a glaring difference between asserted growth and cash flow, what do YOU think I should believe? I say TRUST THE CASH FLOW. Money talks, bullsh*t walks.

  It's been many years now and all that while, there have been reports of uninterrupted growth. Meanwhile, they dumped subscriptions, cut the Awake, reduced the Watchtower, sold off Kingdom Halls and Branch Offices, reduced literature, sold off printing equipment, laid off long term Bethelites into the worst job market in 60 years and built a printing press system with money from a building they sold after an appeal for $50 million failed.

  Oh, and let me comment on baptisms, folks.....

  As an elder, years ago, I was appalled by the casual and rather dismissive demeanor of young Witnesses waiting in line to be baptized and that was years ago! I am all the more impressed by the obsessive nature - of young Witness "men" in particular- as they focus on their cell phones with a devotion that was once reserved for a girlfriend. These kids are getting baptized but their "Dedication" is a joke.

  You can note trends in their stats but be skeptical of the absolute numbers. They count the fake, the disspirited, and the compelled. The reality is becoming much different.

  metatron
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  jwfacts

  metatron - interesting observation, but I only agree in part.

  There are a number of ways that these numbers are fudged, but I think the overall trends it highlights are quite accurate. The leaders have also watered them down the numbers by changing requirements of hours, but I don't believe they are fudging the figures in too much of an outright manner. People lie about how many hours they preach, and the preaching is ineffective, so on its own the 2 billions hours is fairly meaningless, but it is still increasing and the number of publishers is still increasing. This is shown by increasing numbers of congregations, and increases in memorial attandance and district convention attendance. In fact, these numbers are more relevant than of many churches that just count membership rather than active members. I have thought that once the publisher numbers start declining they may stop reporting these and just start counting meeting attendance or memorial attendance.

  I know from some contact with my family that many do still believe with great fervour, and the meeting attendance, whilst not growing much, is not declining too much either. I have no doubt that you are correct that the newer generations are not as committed as the older generations. This is shown in the slowing growth trends, as many of them become inactive, and the trends also show that they jump back in during times of crisis. Long term it is good news, as those that are not committed will eventually start to leave in greater droves and not come back. The finanical woes are also a good indication of this, but this is not just from falling numbers and apathy, but also because they are no longer selling magazines.
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  nicolaou

  The last year that partakers matched or exceeded the current 11,824 was 1965!

  Many thanks to Atlantis for his excellent topic of 4 years ago; Memorial Partaker totals for 72 years by request!
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  dozy

  Thanks very much for your analysis , JWF. Loving the graphs.......

  I would agree with your assessment. I think that there is a very strong , enthusiastic core who are pioneering , often serving in foreign speaking congregations , very zealous ( by the JW definition.) The majority , though , are pretty apathetic - 2nd / 3rd / even 4th generation JWs that know how to play the system & essentially treat the whole religion as a glorified social club. For these ones , JWism works on a certain level - all their friends & most of their family are in & there really is no incentive for them to leave , especially when they can "get by" with pretty minimal effort.

  In Europe / Japan the number of publishers has pretty much flatlined for decades now. It does surprise me that given the paucity of new recruits and the number of young ones not getting baptised ( and us older ones apostasing or just drifting out ), that there isn't a decrease , though. I suppose it just show that given enough effort made to recruit , you can at least maintain numbers , even in a pretty dismal operation such as JWs. It would be interesting to know how many elders / ms there are. I would guess that these numbers are decreasing. A relative was at the ms school recently & he said the place was half full & most were middle aged or elderly. And lots of elders I used to know are now just R&F , as a result of being deleted for bad conduct or just resigning from pressure of workload. And most have no desire to be reappointed , even as ms ( "been there , done that".)

  Barring a black swan event ( eg huge sex or financial scandal , schism , major Franz style apostasy , bizarre new rules introduced by GB ), I would expect the numbers to continue to increase by a couple of percentage points a year , from now till time indefinite (to coin a phrase.)
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  Phizzy

  Has any one factored in the number of Bros who would have died during the year (s) ? This must be what 1% ? So is not the increase larger than it looks ?
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  slimboyfat

  Sorry I assumed they would not be as daft as to mark down the addition of Hawaii as an increase. If that's what they have done then that's just plain stupid.