Nobody will come out of the Republican primaries a clear winner. So it will be an open Republican Convention. Therefore, it is quite possible that a "Darkhorse Candidate" will get the nomination. If the economy improves, Obama will be hard to beat. If the economy goes bust, Obama will lose. If the economy stays like it currently is, then if the Republicans nominate a moderate candidate, then it will be a very close race with the Republican favored.
I Want Your Prediction: Who Will Be The Republican Nominee & Will He Beat Obama?
by minimus 55 Replies latest jw friends
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slimboyfat
The price of oil is going up. If it continues to do so the economy could stall and Obama could be in trouble.
Any of the Republicans on offer winning is a scary prospect.
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outsmartthesystem
Romney.
And Obama wins for the same reason George W won in 2004. Lack of genuine....likable competition.
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botchtowersociety
Nobody will come out of the Republican primaries a clear winner. So it will be an open Republican Convention.
I find that unlikely because I believe the odds favor Romney winning outright based on delegate counts. The odds of it going open are still low at this point. This article at Realclearpolitics estimates a 20% chance of it going brokered.
Therefore, it is quite possible that a "Darkhorse Candidate" will get the nomination.
I find that unlikely as well, but that is because I think Ron Paul would throw his delegates to Romney if it comes down to your scenario. That would almost certainly put Romney over the 50% mark in terms of delegate votes, with Ron Paul receiving something in return.
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Berengaria
Dems are turning out in Michigan to vote for Santorum, by the way. That tells you who they really fear.
Santorum is asking them to.
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sabastious
Ron Paul should get the vote based on what the Republican party needs (a RINO), however this might not be the case. The fact is that Romney, Gingrich and Santorum are TOO old school Republican to win against the new age president Barack Obama. Paul would also do best against Obama in debates, imo, because Obama has been preparing for Romney which is a completely different political animal. Paul is a total wildcard and I wish the GOP would see that, but I don't think they will. There is no way on God's green earth that a conservative is going to win against the first new age presidential incumbent. Therefore Ron Paul is the republic's last chance against Vader and the Death Star.
If all goes "according to plan" Romeny will win the GOP vote and lose to Obama by 8 points.
-Sab
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botchtowersociety
Santorum is asking them to.
Yeah, which says something about Santorum's campaign. Michael Moore, Obama, et al are turning them out too in what they call "Operation Hilarity."
Ron Paul should get the vote based on what the Republican party needs (a RINO), however this might not be the case. The fact is that Romney, Gingrich and Santorum are TOO old school Republican to win against the new age president Barack Obama. Paul would also do best against Obama in debates, imo, because Obama has been preparing for Romney which is a completely different political animal. Paul is a total wildcard and I wish the GOP would see that, but I don't think they will. There is no way on God's green earth that a conservative is going to win against the first new age presidential incumbent. Therefore Ron Paul is the republic's last chance against Vader and the Death Star.
I agree, although I voted for Paul in my primary based on principles and not political strategy.
If all goes "according to plan" Romeny will win the GOP vote and lose to Obama by 8 points
We'll see. I am not enamored of Romney by any means, but we'll see. Remember, Obama couldn't beat McCain by that margin, and that was back when the financial collapse hit and hopium fever was in full effect.
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sabastious
I agree, although I voted for Paul in my primary based on principles and not political strategy.
Noble, but the democratic party of today is an extremely well oiled political machine. I hope there are some that are focusing on strategy because that's the ruleset the demos have put on the table.
-Sab
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sabastious
We'll see. I am not enamored of Romney by any means, but we'll see. Remember, Obama couldn't beat McCain by that margin, and that was back when the financial collapse hit and hopium fever was in full effect.
The fact that they are just throwing "who should have won last time" at Obama seems very lazy. The media destroyed much of Paul's chances. Could Paul enter the race as an independent after losing the GOP vote? Based on my observations of my own community there are going to be a lot of no votes because of GOP disgust. Those votes could be transfered to an independent candidate. If Obama had a demo challenger things would have been so different I imagine.
-Sab
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dog is god
The repubs got nuthin. I'm remembering how the repubes made those truckloats of votes get lost in Fla, voting places in dems areas closing early. Then all those new voting computers put out that were made by Bush cronies. There just is not one pleasant thought about Bush's administration. His winning decided by the Supreme Court. Katrina. The Dick Cheney and Halaburton, Blackwater, stupid unjustified wars, even Imminant Domain reconstructed so that ANY business can take your property whether it is for public good or not. Giving Corporations the title of "persons". How Bush used 9-11 to get what big Corp wanted in the middle east. Bankrupting the nation and taking huge loans from China. Attacking Unions and moving industries overseas creating massive unemployment. Obama might win but then the repubes can repeat the Bush playbook. Senators and Congressmen getting uber rich on insider trading. It just makes me sick.