2005 - The year the Society began its decline (without anyone noticing)!

by cedars 112 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  binadub

  Two significant differences between the 1925 failed prediction and the 1975 prediction (imo):

  1) The WT essentially admitted 1925 (Millions Now Living ...) was a failed prediction. Rutherford admitted (in his own words) that "I made an @$$ of myself."
  The WTS not only never admitted 1975 was a failed prediction. They claimed they never predicted it in the first place, blaming people for jumping to a conclusion not intended.

  2) 1925 was well within the confines of the 1914 generation with room to spare. 1975 was well past the original concept of a 40-year "generation."
  Actually as the truth be known, in 1925 the Society had not yet published 1914 instead of 1874 as the beginning of the last generation. That didn't occur until 1943 according to Fred Franz in the 1973 book, "God's Kingdom of a Thousand Years Has Approached," page 209, par.55.
  It must have been kind of embarrassing if asked how their F&DS was appointed at a time when their belief was that Christ had returned in 1874.

  Violia: I forgot about the AOL chat rooms. Most active JWs on the Internet were in AOL JW chats. And most JWs on Internet had AOL accounts. There were even rumors that JWs had an investment interest in AOL. Were you a JW in those days?
  I maintain that H2O was the grand daddy of all Web expose's of the Watchtower. Maybe that's my perception because of where it fell in my exJW experience.

  ~Binadub
• 

  mrquik

  Thanks to Cedars & all the insight from everyone else. Just knowing that this cult is swirling in the bowl warms my heart. Make no mistake though as far as the end of this cult. It will only end when the money ends.
• 

  Godsendconspirator

  Does anybody else think that if the Watchtower were to go broke, the last article they would print would say it's because they are finally in the Great Tribulation and this system will end within the year?
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  JakeM2012

  During contruction of Paterson NY, 1989+, a reliable source had told me that contributions in the late seventies were low. This would coincide with the low feelings and decrease after 1975. He indicated that after the "apostasy" 1979-1980 that the contributions started flowing in like never before. Further, when Patterson was built the money flowed in big time . The reasoning was that the organization had gone through a time of cleansing and Jehovah was "blessing the organization". The apostates were the scapegoat. I know first hand that some had expectations of Armegeddon around 1994 close to the 80th year after 1914 and were donating heavily in the early 1990's.

  After the generation change in 1995 I felt there was a diminished urgency which will not be recovered. The status quo would continued at Bethel until the bean counters recognized the lower contributions and compared that with the liability of the ageing demographics of the Bethel family. There was talk that they would construct a large medical facility at Walkill. That did not happen. Instead, I guess it was around 2003-2006 that they were sending Bethelites home everyweek and back to the congregations. This corresponds with the printing decrease in 2005 noted by Cedars. Men in their 50's that had dedicated their lives to Bethel being sent home to "march around Jericho on the 7th day 7 times" and blow their horns. The end was close and all were to be in the field preaching. Many of those that came back to the local congregations were pretty quiet, low keyed, with low activity.
• 

  donuthole

  There are various threads of decay in the organization tracking over decades.

  As Cedars points out the Watchtower has long been a religious publishing enterprise. The first blow came with the switch to the donation arrangement. The activity of selling literature for an inflated "printing cost" financed the explosive growth of the Society, especially under Knorr. (The same way you had to pay 50 cents for generic cola at a Convention you could buy retail for 20 cents.) The second blow came with the rise of Internet and the demise of commercial publishing. The cutting back in printing and moving over to the Internet (albeit reluctantly) simply follows a transition that many commercial publishing outfits are undergoing at present. The Awake! is getting cut in and half and so is our local newspaper -- this comes as no surprise. Printing is no longer commercially viable -- it is nearly as outmoded as door-to-door sales.

  Can the religion survive without the publishing house? Certainly but the transition will take time.

  The real place to look to see the decay is the Witness youth. These are the ones that sustain "growth" in developed lands by virtue of the fact that nearly every child born in a Witness household will become a "publisher" and get added to the ranks. However, it doesn't mean that they will "make the truth their own" and remain. In fact a recent study showed that the Witnesses had very poor member retention. Witness kids that don't take the religion to heart or remain in it will not be around to sire the next generation. The religion will wither. You can't really look to statistics to see this. The affect is more observed anecdotally. In your local congregation, how many Witness children are getting reproved or disfellowshipped? Are those who are still in making plans to become full-time pioneers or reaching out for bethel service? Are the young men qualifiying to serve as ministerial servants? Compared to generations past do they seem as "zealous for fine works"?
• 

  cedars

  donuthole - thanks for those insightful comments...

  Can the religion survive without the publishing house? Certainly but the transition will take time.

  I think you would be surprised at how relatively quickly the religion might follow suit as things get progressively worse. Just imagine a scenario where nothing is printed apart from, say, the Kingdom Ministry - and Watchtowers and Awakes are only available as PDF downloads. Brochures and books quickly follow, and old literature and magazine stockpiles are depleted. Within a year or so, publishers are faced with going on the ministry with nothing but their bibles, and perhaps some material they have been asked to print themselves either at home or at the Kingdom Hall. There would be a HUGE drop in hours spent in the ministry, and jwfacts has already noted on other threads that the number of hours required per conversion is increasing. Within a couple of years max, the growth figures (if they were being printed, that is) would begin to show negative growth. Congregations would start to get shut down on a massive scale... Borderline publishers would begin to leave as they see the lack of evidence that the organization has God's blessing... you get the picture!

  As I've said before on this thread, the reasons behind the Society's decline at the start of the century have been building for some time. However, the first cracks became obvious in 2005, and have been widening since. It's like the hurricane began in the 70s, but the first roof tiles didn't start blowing off until just after the new millenium. We can only figure it out now with the benefit of hindsight, but I believe the decline is irreversible. A 50% reduction in magazine printing commitments in 7 years, and a 16% reduction in branches last year. Wow! These are not figures that the Society of old would have been proud of, and whatever their excuses may be, nobody can deny that it is part of a strategic withdrawal rather than simply a "streamlining" of operations.

  Godsendconspirator...

  Does anybody else think that if the Watchtower were to go broke, the last article they would print would say it's because they are finally in the Great Tribulation and this system will end within the year?

  I very much doubt they would go that far, but crazier things have happened. They will most likely attribute it to the difficult times we are living in as the end draws ever closer.

  Red Piller...

  My theory: The decline became most visible in 2009. The reduction to one meeting night a week was a colossal change that affected every publisher immediately.

  That was a massive change, and came as a huge surprise to me at the time.

  Cedars
• 

  slimboyfat

  About five years or so ago there was a poster on this site who claimed there were big changes coming in the organisation. He said he had a conversation with a member of the Governing Body who predicted many would leave the organisation in the coming years. Opinion was divided over whether to take the poster seriously. At the time the main speculation was that COs would be abolished because the society could not afford to keep them. That never happened, but plenty of other things did. Dropping the book study, cutting the magazines, closing branches, abandoning the 1935 cut-off for the anointed, and the new generation teaching all qualify as pretty big changes that have no doubt impacted on growth. I wonder if maybe there was some truth in what that poster said after all. That the Governing Body realised they had to make cut backs for a mixture of financial, legal, chronological reasons, and they had expressed concerns to a few trusted friends about what the result would be. Does anyone remember who that poster was or have links to the threads?

  On the recent DVD it was interesting that one of the GB members expressed the view that Jehovah does not are about growth he cares about faithfulness. If that's representative of the GB's current thinking and strategy then it represents an enormous break with the "theocracy's increase" mentality of the past.
• 

  zeb

  Credit card facilities at assembley halls? Please explain someone.!
• 

  cedars

  zeb - please try downloading the file from the link shown in the following thread:

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/watchtower/bible/215752/1/2011-November-Our-Kingdom-Ministry-PDF

  For those who are interested, I have written a re-worded follow up article expressing my views on the outlook for the Society on jwsurvey.org. Here is the link:

  http://jwsurvey.org/general-information/what-does-the-future-hold-for-the-watch-tower-society

  Cedars
• 

  life is to short

  btt this is such a great post.

  LITS