Stay Alive Til 2020

by FrankWTower 27 Replies latest jw friends

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  FrankWTower

  I've been playing around with WT statistics recently, helped by the great data available on jwfacts.com. I wanted to share somehting with the community, maybe you've seen something like this before.

  Continuing the trend of decline seen during the last 30 years, I was able to extrapolate the year when WT growth might finally end. If trends continue, we may only have to wait about 8 more years, 9 years to see it reported if the WT decides to report it at all, to see publisher growth end and possibly reverse.

  The graph shows the annual growth rate of average publishers during the last 31 years. Data for these figures can be found here. I used Microsoft Excel to extrapolate the decline trend.

  

  May the force be with us.
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  Phizzy

  "If you sit by the river for long enough you will see the body of your enemy float by".

  2020 is not that long, I shall sit by the river and fish.
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  CADSkin

  Not catchy enough. It needs to rhyme. "Stayin' alive 'till 75"
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  Fed-up

  lets hope the trend continues
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  Gayle

  Looks great..but I wonder if 2014 could hasten it even sooner.
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  caliber

  Not catchy enough. It needs to rhyme. "Stayin' alive 'till 75"

  Yes Stayin alive til 2025 has a more poetic ring to it.. maybe just "overlap" some years or something to arrive at this year

  Maybe you're being too "eager" for the end
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  Londo111

  I think 2015 might see the start of the Decline...at least, in the US. It will be 40 years since 1975. 101 years since 1914. By then, the Conti lawsuit should be concluded and it may open the door for others. The Information age is taking a toll for potential recruits and for those who are starting to wake up. Baptisms seem primarily children and only a third of those stick with it. Magazines are being cut in half, branches are being downsized.

  If the rumors are true the number of elders has declined by a third in the last two decades, and the number of ministerial servants, the pool from which elders can be drawn, seems to have dwindled even more. The Hierarchy complains that brothers aren’t “stepping up to the plate”. The last one-day KM school basically shows they will simply crack to the whip harder…and likely this will cause more elders of conscience to step down or awaken to TTATT.

  This is an Organization that thrives on End-time fear-mongering…therefore major wars, terrorist attacks, and unusual historic events do cause the inactive to run back to the Organization for fear of Armageddon. Thus, 9/11 and the 2008 Economic collapse did forestall the Decline. Conversely, this effect can be offset by Organizational blunders.
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  DATA-DOG

  How about ....

  2020, THERE AIN'T NO MONEY!!!
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  Splash

  "Keep it keen, 'til 2019"
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  GoneAwol

  "from plenty to empty in 2020"