Stay Alive Til 2020 (page 2)

Think About It

Not catchy enough. It needs to rhyme. "Stayin' alive 'till 75"

If the end don't come by 2020

The WTS is full of baloney

sir82

I love charts like these, you can see the effect that various things (new light, world events, etc.) have had....

Early 80's: "Apostates" cleared out of Bethel, only zealous & loyal JWs stick around. Also, "1914 generation" near age 70. Growth is big.

1995: Now 80+ years after 1914. "Generation" definition is changed, pushing Armageddon back indefinitely. Growth drops sharply for several years

2002: One year after 9/11, inactive or hesitant JWs jump "back into the ark", convinced Armageddon is nigh

2004-05: No Armageddon after all - back to inactivity & slow growth

2007: Introduction of "Bible Teach" book, dumbed down enough for 3rd-worlders and 1st world immigrants to grasp, Growth inches up

2008: Low-hanging 3rd world fruit gathered, growth declines again

2009: World economic near-collapse again convinces hangers on that Armageddon is nigh - growth rate inches up

2010 & after: economy slowly improving, growth declines again

Overall though, as indicated in the OP, the trend is slowing growth. If the world manages to avoid near-self-destruction, we should definitely see the number of JWs level off and probably even start declining in less than a decade, maybe much sooner.

cedars

A very encouraging extrapolation, but the OP almost presumes I had plans to die before 2020 - or indeed that dying might be an option if the growth doesn't slow down or reverse by that time. Am I missing something?!

Cedars

Gopher

Sir82,

Excellent summary of major events leading to trends in Watchtower growth / decline. To your list I would add that the 1982 publication of the "Live Forever" book with its large vivid pictures of paradise led to an increase in the number of Bible studies and converts, at least throughout that decade.

sir82

Yes absolutely on the Live Forever book. I forgot about that - it definitely had a huge impact.

Like most things in WT-world, the bump only lasts a few years.

Another example:

The WT's latest attempt to stir up the population - 30 hour auxiliary pioneering.

2011: Huge buzz, everybody wants to do it, some congregations report 80 or 90% participation

2012: Again? [Yawn] Well OK. Fewer sign up for it

2013: Meh. No one is talking about it, no one seems to even notice. I can almost guarantee even fewer will sign up.

FrankWTower

@cedars,

Not at all. If you remember, the "stay alive 'til 75" quote was in reference to the supposed end of this "system of things" in 1975. The DO who said it (can't remember his name) was talking about staying alive spiritually until the end, or at least that's my understanding. In my case, I mean to stay alive intellectually until we see, not the end of the WT, but at least the moment when it begins its decline in worldwide membership.

If I'm wrong about the year, at least I based my extrapolation on mathematics, not on WT superstition.

wha happened?

who knows what the next magic number will be. Evidentely, when the GB sees the next decline on the horizon, they will be hard at work re-defining Jesus' words.

In the US I think we're a few years from reporting a consistantly flat level of growth

cedars

FrankWTower

Not at all. If you remember, the "stay alive 'til 75" quote was in reference to the supposed end of this "system of things" in 1975.

Ah, I see. Thanks for explaining. I'm too young to remember all that. What a morose catchphrase!!

Cedars

TD

The DO who said it (can't remember his name)

Wasn't that Charles Sunutko?

scotoma

The trendline shows that by 2014 we will be at the lowest level of growth since the begining of the chart.

That has to be significant. Centennial of "Christ 2nd Coming" combined with natural decay is a double hit.

If nothing else the chart refutes the myth of god speeding the growth. Deceleration = trendline going down. Acceleration = trendline going up.

Stay Alive Til 2020

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