Leander, you've heard right -- 1914 has nothing of the significance that JWs claim. They claim that the date is significant based on a provably wrong chronology and a provably wrong set of interpretations of a few of Jesus' words. Here is why:
JWs interpret various prophecies and Bible passages as saying that there would be a period of 2520 years called "the Gentile times" which supposedly began in 607 B.C. and ended in 1914 A.D. But every step of their calculation is based on things that are either not provable from the Bible (i.e., they're purely speculative), or can be disproved from the Bible and/or secular history.
The 607 B.C. date for the fall of Jerusalem can be proved wrong both Biblically and secularly. JWs base this date on the claim that "the 70 years of Jeremiah" (cf. Jer. 25:11, 12; 29:10) were both a period of captivity of the Jews to Babylon and a period of desolation of Jerusalem that ended in the autumn of 537 B.C. when the Jews arrived back in Judah after nearly 70 years of captivity in Babylon. Counting back exactly 70 years gets you to the autumn of 607 B.C., which they claim was therefore when the desolation of Judah began. However, there are many things that disprove this claim. 2 Chronicles 36:20 unambiguously states that the Jews were no longer captive to "the king of Babylon" after "the royalty of Persia began to reign". Both the Watchtower Society and secular historians agree that this happened in 539 B.C., and so the captivity of the Jews to "the king of Babylon" must have ended in 539, not 537 B.C. Thus the "70 years of Jeremiah" must have ended in 539 B.C. This alone destroys the basis for Watchtower calculations.
Jeremiah 25:11, along with a number of other passages, proves that the 70-year period was not one of captivity of the Jews and desolation of Jerusalem, but of Babylonian supremacy over not just the Jews, but the nations round about Judah. Jeremiah 29:10, translated properly, supports this: "For this is what Jehovah has said, 'In accord with the fulfilling of seventy years for Babylon I shall turn my attention to you people, and I will establish toward you my good word in bringing you back to this place.' " In other words, about the time when, or "in accord with" when, the 70 years of Babylonian supremacy were fulfilled, or completed, God would return the Jews to Judah. This certainly occurred when the 70 years were fulfilled or completed in 539 B.C., and within two years the Jews returned to Judah.
In conjunction with 2 Chronicles 36:20 and Jeremiah 25:11, Jeremiah 25:12 shows that the 70-year period was not what the Watchtower Society claims. The passage states that "when seventy years have been fulfilled" God would "call to account against the king of Babylon" or punish him. It is unarguable that this punishment began to occur when the armies of Cyrus the Persian overthrew "the king of Babylon" in 539 B.C., killing the secondary king Belshazzar and subjugating the primary king Nabonidus. Jeremiah 27:6, 7 indicate that "the king of Babylon" being referred to was the line of Babylonian kings beginning with Nebuchadnezzar, and that the Jews and nations round about that were subjugated by these kings would remain subject to them "until the time even of his own land comes, and many nations and great kings must exploit him as a servant." Obviously this began to occur in 539 B.C. when Nebuchadnezzar's line ended. Nabonidus was probably married to Nebuchadnezzar's daughter and Belshazzar was probably their son, and therefore Nebuchadnezzar's grandson, so this whole scenario is self-consistent and consistent with the above-referenced scriptures.
So it is clear that the "70 years of Jeremiah" must have begun in 539 rather than 537 B.C., and therefore the basis for Watchtower chronology is wrong. Secular history, again supported by the Bible, indicates that the 70 years probably began in 609 B.C. when the Babylonians under Nebuchadnezzar's father Nabopolassar put a final end to the Assyrian empire and began a period of supremacy over all the other nations in the Middle East.
You can get a much fuller explanation of the above material in the book The Gentile Times Reconsidered by Carl Olof Jonsson (available through the Freeminds website http://www.freeminds.org ).
Today many JWs are beginning to acknowledge that the traditional WTS chronology is wrong. But they still cling to the 1914 date because without it all claims that something of prophetic signficance occurred about that time have no foundation at all. Without the "1914 chronology" it's easy to see that everything the Society has claimed are pure smoke.
The Society has traditionally interpreted various passages in Matthew 24, Mark 13 and Luke 21 as being a prophecy about "signs of the end" which careful Bible students would be able to observe and then conclude that "the time of the end" had begun. Such "signs" include earthquakes, war, famine and pestilence. The Society has long claimed that these things have been strikingly in evidence since 1914, and therefore that "the sign" has been observed and so we are in a period they call "Christ's parousia or presence". However, a careful examination of each feature of the Society's claim shows that everything they claim is wrong.
First, the claim that the Greek word parousia means "presence" in Matthew 24:3 and a few other key Bible passages is demonstrably wrong. The word certainly means "presence" in some contexts, but the Society consistently fails to inform its followers that the word also means "arrival, coming, advent, the royal arrival/visit of a king". A careful analysis of all of the relevant Bible passages that bear on "the second coming" of Christ proves that the latter senses are what the Bible writers had in mind, not an extended "presence" in which Christ would rule invisibly and which could only be recognized by those with "eyes of faith". Keep in mind that this notion of an invisible presence was adopted by Nelson Barbour and his followers in 1875, after they searched around for an excuse as to why Barbour's prediction that "the world would end" in 1873/1874 failed. They concluded that the world had indeed ended in a certain fashion, and that Christ had indeed begun ruling in heaven in 1874 -- only no one could see it. In 1876 Charles Taze Russell adopted this ridiculous notion and it, or the equally ridiculous notion that Christ began ruling invisibly in 1914, has been standard Watchtower fare ever since.
Next note that not a single one of the claimed "signs of the end" has been noticeably greater than before 1914. In fact, some of them are far less in evidence. Earthquakes since 1914 have killed slightly more than the number of people on average per year than they did 300 years ago. But because the population today is 4-5 times greater, the risk of being killed in a quake is 3-4 times lower. Therefore, if anything, earthquakes are an "anti-sign". Today famine and pestilence still kill plenty of people, but far fewer than in any previous century on average. Before 1914 it was not uncommon for nearly an entire village or city to be wiped out by such, but that doesn't happen today. What about war? Again a careful study shows that on average, war kills about the same percentage of population as it has during the previous five centuries.
In view of the above facts, it is evident that there is no observable "sign" such as Jehovah's Witnesses would have you believe. The few semi-enlightened JWs who acknowledge that their chronology is probably wrong and that the facts of history about earthquakes, war, famine and pestilence as outlined above are correct, turn right around and make a new claim: that Jesus' words about a "sign" don't necessarily mean that these "features" need to be particularly in evidence, but only that they need to be present. But that's ridiculous on its face. If these "signs" are no worse than ever before, and some are not even as bad, then they cannot possibly be used to distinguish our time from any other. It would be like saying, "I will return from vacation when the grass is green, the sky is blue and young men are lusting after young women." It would be meaningless, and you could not tell from anything I said when I was about to return from vacation.
In view of the above, it is evident that Jesus' words, if they have any meaning at all, must mean something quite different from what these many always-wrong end-times proclaimers claim. Indeed, a careful reading of the Gospel accounts shows that Jesus was telling his listeners exactly the opposite of what they claim -- that things like earthquakes, war, famine and pestilence are common things that would always be observed and therefore that they should not be interpreted as signs of anything. This is reasonable because such things had been traditional elements of Jewish apocalyptism, which Jesus clearly wanted his followers to have no part of.
The notion that Jesus was warning his followers not to be deceived by claims that someone could observe "signs of the end" and therefore issue an advance warning to Christians not as astutely observant as themselves is epitomized in two scriptures:
"On this account you too prove yourselves ready, because at an hour that you do not think to be it, the Son of man is coming." (Matthew 24:44)
"Look out that you are not misled; for many will come on the basis of my name, saying, 'I am he,' and, 'The due time has approached.' Do not go after them." (Luke 21:8)
Jehovah's Witnesses and other rabid end-times proclaimers consistently ignore these scriptures and think that they don't apply to them. You can see it in the excuses given by JW defenders everywhere, including such lights as You Know in this very thread. When challenged with such facts in an open forum, they inevitably ignore the facts and/or run away. Watch for this behavior here.
You can get a much fuller explanation of the above ideas in the book The Sign of the Last Days: When? by Carl Olof Jonsson (available through the Freeminds website http://www.freeminds.org ).
Jerome gave a fine commentary on how much was wrong with the Bible Students in 1919 when they claim that Jesus found them so extraordinarily faithful that he appointed them "over all his belongings". Clearly, their claims are nonsense. Amazing also gave a fine summary of what is wrong with JW claims.
In view of the above ideas, it is evident that the claims of JWs and their apologists that true Christians can know when Christ is about to return are without foundation. Many already admit that the traditional Watchtower chronology is wrong, so they can get no information from it. It is evident that their claims about observing "the signs of the times" are nothing more than wishful thinking. Therefore it is as you said: "everything else crumbles".
A lot of the above material can be found in the books by Raymond Franz Crisis of Conscience and In Search of Christian Freedom (available through the Freeminds website http://www.freeminds.org ).
AlanF
