12-year-old thread: JWS/WTS REACHES CRITICAL MASS - A NON-EVENT!

by steve2 20 Replies latest jw friends

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  steve2

  A few days ago, there was renewed interest in a 12-year-old thread which, among other points, argued the Watchtower's days were numbered. Several current posters expressed the view that the WTS has not been impacted by any "critical mass" and that it speaks to the immunity of the Watchtower to any such "critical mass" event.

  I thought the topic warranted a renewal for wider consideration - with the "benefit" of "12-years" hindsight - so have duplicated one of my responses:

  I guess one of the main things this 12-year-old post highlights is the folly of making predictions that the end is near - whether it be the end of the world or the end of the Watchtower. I tired long ago of threads that predicted such-and-such-an-event would shake the organization to its core. Look at the threads started over the Australian Mr Unthank's fervid attempts to bring the Watchtower to its apologetic knees in Court. How many posters whipped up frenzied views about the significance about that non-event on this forum? I will credit Mr Unthank with not directly posting on this forum; mind you, he hasn't had to given how readily others have posted developments for us.

  Breathless sensationalizing comes and goes on this forum almost as reliably as it does at Watchtower conventions. meanwhile, the Watchtower maintains an unblinking stand and (some of) Mr Unthank's comments take on an increasingly protracted story about being persecuted by the Watchtower. Um, no you're not, Mr Unthank. It's just turned out far differently from how you wanted it to. Bor-ing.

  That said, many here on this forum have often said that the Watchtower will not end by mass exodus but more by petering out. My mantra has often been, the Watchtower's biggest enemy is not apostasy but apathy.

  For several years, the number of baptisms has shrunk to well under a half of what they once were - and in some countries barely reach one-third of previous highs.

  Of interest, in 2012, memorial attendances worldwide were down by more than 200,000 over 2011. It remains to be seen whether this "dip" has continued in the present year.

  Be that as it may, I would never expect the organization to "suddenly" hemorrhage active membership; it's more likely to be mundane and gradual, like older ones persevering in the door-to-door work whilst younger ones get caught up in having to be in paid employment weekends and the preaching work gets second place. Or - a frequently observed fact in this forum - the aging bodies of elders in local congregations with fewer suitable younger brothers to step into their shoes.

  For years to come, the organization will cash in on 'splash and dash' events such as special months for auxiliary pioneering - but as with all such 'look-at-how-zealous-I-am' events, the capacity the organization once had to sustain growth in the West is long gone.

  Don't expect a bang but do listen for a spluttering sound in the years to come.
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  Londo111

  9/11 lengthened the Organization’s decline by a time and a season. Even those who somewhat doubt the organization (but who are not awakened), do not want to be destroyed in Armageddon. Thus when an event like 9/11 occurs, people fear the Tribulation is nigh and flock back. Events like this will always whip up endtime fever.

  If rumors are true, then 9/11 also killed the “liberal” element in the organization seeking reform and lightening of the load.

  The conservative element that won the day in 2001 realized that lightening the controls of fear and guilt would cause a massive hemorrhaging and things could fly apart really quick. Thus since that time, the Control was tightened and tightened, the tone has gotten harsher and harsher. Even those who are awakened to TTATT or simply doubt it is the “truth”, stay in for the family and friends that they’d lose otherwise. And they learn to keep quiet about what they know or face the consequences.

  Last year, the GB declaring itself alone to be the “Faithful Slave” and the one-day elder school confirmed the direction things are headed in. The 2012 Yearbook gave a nod toward shunning the inactive. They’re building a trench and a barbwire fence with guard towers with machine guns. I do wonder where this will all end. How much Control can they reach for until something snaps?

  Post 1975, there was a decline due to the failed 1975 prediction. I suspect that by 2015 the decline will be apparent in the yearly report.
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  respectful_observer

  Breathless sensationalizing comes and goes on this forum almost as reliably as it does at Watchtower conventions.

  I would definitely agree with that observation. Although it's not a barometer for the global organization, I seem to be encountering more and more situations where active JWs make statements and disclosures that make my jaw drop.

  A few recent samples:

  Long-time pioneer (in repsonse to a discussion of the GB/FDS change): "Well it's not like I believe everything I read in the Watchtower anyway. Does anyone?"

  Long-time elder (in response to the recent CA that picked on people saving in a 401K): "Why does the Society want every Witness to be stupid and poor?"

  Not a quote, but a CoBE I know well "partook" this year for the first time, as did a young MS in the same hall. It turns out they both participate in a weekly Skype "family" study with brothers from around the world. All three people in that hall (barely 70 pubs) who participate in that weekly call/study partook this year. The CoBE also disclosed that he'd been partaking privately at home for years.

  A LONG-TIME elder who has been moved by the WTS many times over many decades in several countries and continents: "Well let's just say I wouldn't be surprised if the current 'understanding' of 1914 changed. Sr. LONG-TIME elder and I have felt that other explanantions make a lot more sense."

  I've spoken to quite a few active JWs and many of them feel that "something" has felt very different in the last few years and that all these changes are just tremors to something that will negatively affect the organization in a broader long-term way.
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  Bungi Bill

  Steve,

  What you have said sounds right on the money.

  Furthermore, the WTS has long recognised this itself - that in fact its greatest enemy is apathy. Thirty years ago, I can recall very stern warnings being issued by the Circuit Overseer on that very subject.

  If the day does indeed come when the "organisation" is no more, it will have been brought about by the ordinary rather than the spectacular.

  Bill.
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  Mum

  Thanks to the internet and a more open-minded, less religious philosophy among more and more people, as well as better educational opportunity and better nutrition for many, the Watchtower way does not have the appeal that it once did for the masses.

  Probably the most persecuted religion in history, Judaism, is no longer threatened so much by persecution as by assimilation. Jews are marrying Gentiles at an unprecedent rate.

  The times, they are a changin'. - Bob Dylan
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  steve2

  Londo111 - I hadn't taken into account 9/11 but now you mention it, it makes sense in terms of leading the organization to be more conservative and tightening the control. Mind you, they have to be careful they do not elicit more open defiance of the rules. I have heard that the organization is having trouble getting all witnesses to obey the shunning policy - hence the repeated warnings.

  Respectful-observer - you're privy to a number of revealing disclosures. As they say, it's probably the tip of the iceberg. What stands out in your post is the semingly more questioning attitude of some active JWs in positions of power regarding partaking of the emblems. No wonder the number of partakers has increased for several consecuative years.

  Bungi Bill - yes, I get impression there are more warnings in the literature about apathy than there are about apostasy. It would be helpful if someone with the time and interest did a content analysis of the literature to see if this is correct.

  Mum - yes, the organization does not have the wider appeal it once did. When I was young, it was not unusual to hear of large numbers of people in the field with no previous connection to the organization becoming witnesses. Nowadays, the bulk of the little increase there is (in Westeren countries) is from born-ins. Less is heard about the success of the door-knocking.
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  respectful_observer

  I know quite a few active JWs who openly argue that the door-to-door work is incredibly inefficient and ineffective. They're loathe to waste their Saturday mornings, but have ZERO desire to do street work or participate in the fancy new booth/cart/table approach. Whenever it comes up, the typical response is "There is NO WAY you could get me to stand next to one of those things all morning. But I bet the pioneers will make good use of it!"

  More and more of the friends seem to hear certain things from the platform at CAs/DCs/SADs and say..."I can understand why they say have to say that, but in the real world..."
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  Londo111

  So many believe that if the CO or DO or Bethel rep says something off the wall during a talk...it's just them and they discount it. They don't realize that these teachings trickle from the top-down and reflect the views of the GB.

  Of course, there are those who hold as gospel ANYTHING said from the platform, even if it's from a #4 talk during the Theocratic Mininstry School.
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  jwfacts

  I agree, and expect that the Watchtower will continue for decades. Older members are unlikely to leave en masse, so the decline will come as these die out. Since there was great growth during the 1970's and 1980's and early 1990s, and converts are often young (late teens and twenties), these people are only in their 50's and 60's now and will on average life for another 20 to 30 years.

  The retention of the youth has never been great, and the number of hours preaching per convert is steadily rising, so as the old die out and the numbers of converts continues to fall, it will be a gradual decline, over the next 20 years before starting to increase in rate.

  Of course, that could all change in either direction if the GB do something insanely offensive, or something revolutionary and exciting.
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  Black Sheep

  The only way the bOrg will die quickly is if most leavers wake up that they have to push their families out of the church while they are still perceived to be true believers, instead of IDing themselves as the WT's dreaded APOSTATES, or trying to take the easy way out via 'fading'.