Service Report UK Jan2002

by dmouse 21 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  RunningMan

  When analyzing these stats, there are several things to keep in mind.

  1. Short periods of time can be very misleading. Short term fluctuations can make numbers look better or worse than they are. For example, things like bad weather can reduce publisher counts temporarily; the month ending on a holiday can slow down the mail, causing some figures to be included in the following month; temporary initiatives like activating inactive ones can inflate numbers. So, you must look at longer periods - several months at least, and compare them to the same months last year.

  2. Watch out for fluctuations caused by reporting changes. The 15 minute publisher rule will increase the number elligible for counting without actually increasing the size of the org.

  3. Sept 11 may scare a few people to activity for a while, but it will wear off.

  Overall, watch the most important numbers - baptisms (which are seriously in the toilet) and defections (which are not reported).

  Also don't forget that pioneering is down significantly, even though the hour requirement was dropped.
• 

  tdogg

  Help me out here, Ive not been paying attention. What is the 15 minute rule. I'm guessing something about rounding up 15 minutes to equal one hour.
• 

  RunningMan

  tdogg: The 15 minute rule was implemented a few months ago. Persons who are infirm or otherwise unable to spend extended periods in service can now report as little as 15 minutes of service per month, and still be considered active.

  So, the threshhold for counting eligible publishers has dropped. This will increase the count without increasing the actual quantity.
• 

  dmouse

  OK, I've had a go at putting the figures into a graph, forgive me but my skills in Excell aren't too good yet.

  This should show the trends for the last couple of years. This Jan is higher than the last two.

  
• 

  ballistic

  dmouse, some of us predicted a small rise in publishers when the announcement was made a few months back to include those with only 15 mins time to book as publishers. Do not also forget the drop or change in pioneer hours which would actually exagerate any drop in the number.
• 

  dungbeetle

  wow that's impressive dm...thanks!!!

  For the first time in a long time, Watchtower is actually concentrating on its own people. Inactives, irregulars, walkaways, fadeaways...there's been some concentration on these in the last few months.

  What thye should have been doing all along. They've been hit hard in the pocketbook--that's what's happeneing.

  ex-jw's are NOT a great source of income!!!
• 

  dungbeetle

  the peaks rise in April becasue of memeorial month (inactive/irregular outreach)

  Peaks rise in August becasue of end-of-pioneering year. They are begging for people to go out with them.

  One other thing. There is a difference between 'number of publishers' and people turning in their time. At any given time, 10 % of JW do not turn in their time, or they turn it in late.

  Watchtower has been jumping on the elders about this, so that 4000 publishers could just simply be the number of slips that, in frustration, the book study conductors filled out for their bookstudy group in frustration.

  If 10% of publishers over their across the big puddle are no tturning in their time; then 4000 publishers is almost those not turning in their time before. These are NEWLY COUNTED ones, not additional publishers.
• 

  ozziepost

  G'day dmouse,

  Thanks for your post and the graph. Don't worry, your Excel skills aren't so bad!

  We'd be very interested in seeing the February (and March) figs. Are you able to help? If so, please put them up on the board when you have them available. Thanks.

  Cheers,
  Ozzie

  "If our hopes for peace are placed in the hands of imperfect people, they are bound to evaporate."

  
  - Ron Hutchcraft Surviving the Storms of Stress
• 

  NameWithheld

  Interesting that the avg hours is now 7.9 for pubs. Used to be over 10 in the US not too many years ago. The pubs can't even be made to lie about getting 10 hours anymore?
• 

  expatbrit

  It would seem that Canada too reflects this sudden upward jerk. Total publishers of all varieties in Jan 2002 was 108,799, as compared to 107,097 in Jan 2001.

  Average bible studies in Canada are also at 0.2, and average common-scum publisher hours are 9.4.

  Whan was the fifteen minute rule instituted? Must have been around Jan, I think. I wonder what artificial figure enhancer they'll think of next. Counting the dead as still being publishers, because they are "crying out to God from the grave", perhaps?

  Expatbrit