250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou 739 Replies latest watchtower medical

• 

  Simon

  Marvin, anytime someone shows you why you could be wrong you refuse to even consider it. So what's the point even trying to discuss things with you? All you do is announce "No, I'm not answering that" and then repeat the exact some thing that you've already pasted before which usually boils down to:

  I'm right, I have hard numbers, I have underlined things to prove it.

  Also, you've said n-n-n-nineteen so many times I now have that damn Paul Hardcastle song in my head

  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8JlTIo--CQ

  BTW: Could we find the total number of US soldiers killed in Vietnam if we knew that 19 out of 103 in one battalion had been shot?
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Do you still believe that Marvin?

  “That the number would easily be 250,000 (I take that to be "at least").”

  Simon,

  Based on my work behind the scenes with Watchtower appointed HLC members and other insiders at Bethel over the years in its Hospital Information Services department (and before that with JW attorneys working with JW patients trying to resist blood), plus my independent experience, I can see this number having been achieved. This is particularly the case given what has gone on in years past in underdeveloped nations with a relatively high ratio of JWs, like Mexico. In a lot of these countries no one really cared if some JW refused blood and died the result, unless it was a young mother or child. The numbers are staggering. But people don’t know this because it all happened in days when information was not widely available in communities that didn’t have safe drinking water and with open sewers running down main street. If you wanted to share the event you’d have to walk 20 miles to mail a letter, and then pray the letter got through. Or you could walk 100 miles to the nearest telephone. If a JW wanted to die refusing a blood transfusion they just let them go ahead and have their way. And they died. This was going on for decades.

  But all that aside, if we accept at face value the contemporary numbers presented by Beliaev of a modern society with state-of-the-art healthcare (New Zealand), then one seemingly small adjustment in the calculation to account for unreported deaths as like facilities would take us nearly to the figure you cite.

  I know these numbers are staggering. I don’t share them lightly. But I do share them, and I share them based on the most conservative assumption at every point where an assumption must be made to further the calculation.

  You are frustrated my repeated use of “conservative”. I get frustrated because you keep complaining of this without pointing to anything in particular that I’ve done that would inflate my number.

  I don’t promote the 250,000 figure because I don’t have published statistics from which to extrapolate the value.

  I do promote the 50,000 figure as a minimum because I do have published statistics from which to extrapolate the value.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 

  besty

  we need to wait on a high level defector
• 

  Simon

  I dislike the "conservative" label as it is ascribing some certainty to what is really an unknown. Yes, it's possible and even likely that a number is higher than the numbers we know of for definite but without proof then it's simply an assumption which is then given more weight that it warrants by applying the label.
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Marvin, anytime someone shows you why you could be wrong you refuse to even consider it.”

  That’s false.

  In each case when someone has presented something specific (not ambiguous) that can be responded to then I have considered it and responded.

  So far all you’ve done is offer generalities.

  If you know of at least ONE thing that I’ve done that would INFLATE the value in my extrapolation then spell it out. Say it. Tell me specifically WHAT it is.

  Otherwise I’ve taken information at face value and extrapolated based on given assumptions, which assumptions are in each case are conservative.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “I dislike the "conservative" label as it is ascribing some certainty to what is really an unknown.”

  Simon,

  That’s false.

  I’ve not just made conservative assumptions. My conservative assumptions have been to ignore the possibility of even one more death over and beyond what Beliaev found in his data set.

  We can be CERTAIN that that assumption is A KNOWN because there is no such a thing as a negative-death value (input) to be found in any patient’s record in any hospital, whether in the 2 regions of Beliaev’s data set or elsewhere.

  Otherwise I’ve taken the 19 deaths attributed to refusing red cell transfusion at face value. We know these 19 deaths occurred over the 10 year period of 1998-2007. We also know the aggregate population of JWs in New Zealand during the same period. We also know the population distribution of New Zealanders during the same period. My extrapolation does no more than let this data speak for its face value for what it suggests about the numbers of JWs dead due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine.

  Marvin Shilmer
• 

  adamah

  Marvin said-

  If you know of at least ONE thing that I’ve done that would INFLATE the value in my extrapolation then spell it out. Say it. Tell me specifically WHAT it is.

  Here's one you've never answered, and the answer COULD vastly inflate the number of your extrapolation:

  How many of those 19 JW's who died by refusing a BT were in the 16-18 y.o. age range?

  No need for an rationalization of how it wouldn't matter or such excuse, Marvin; just a simple number will suffice.

  Adam
• 

  Simon

  Also Marvin, I think you are going off your experience which differs greatly to other people's. Why does your experience count and others don't? You are quick to dismiss other people's experience of *not* coming across many cases of JWs dying because of blood.

  Anyway, here's an attempt at breaking things down using the mortality figures given earlier (page 2).

  Year	Publishers	Died	Blood	Heart	Cancer	Respiratory	Stroke	Accidents	Alzheimers	Diabetes	Influenza	Suicide
  1960	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1961	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1962	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1963	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1964	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1965	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1966	1000000	8000	255	1,945	1,864	454	421	389	272	227	162	123
  1967	1100000	8800	280	2,139	2,050	499	463	428	299	250	178	135
  1968	1200000	9600	306	2,333	2,236	544	506	467	327	272	194	148
  1969	1300000	10400	331	2,528	2,423	590	548	506	354	295	211	160
  1970	1400000	11200	357	2,722	2,609	635	590	544	381	318	227	172
  1971	1500000	12000	382	2,917	2,795	681	632	583	408	340	243	185
  1972	1600000	12800	408	3,111	2,982	726	674	622	436	363	259	197
  1973	1700000	13600	433	3,306	3,168	771	716	661	463	386	275	209
  1974	1800000	14400	459	3,500	3,354	817	758	700	490	408	292	222
  1975	1900000	15200	484	3,695	3,541	862	801	739	517	431	308	234
  1976	2000000	16000	510	3,889	3,727	907	843	778	544	454	324	246
  1977	2000000	16000	510	3,889	3,727	907	843	778	544	454	324	246
  1978	2000000	16000	510	3,889	3,727	907	843	778	544	454	324	246
  1979	2000000	16000	510	3,889	3,727	907	843	778	544	454	324	246
  1980	2100000	16800	535	4,084	3,913	953	885	817	572	476	340	259
  1981	2200000	17600	561	4,278	4,100	998	927	856	599	499	357	271
  1982	2300000	18400	586	4,472	4,286	1,044	969	894	626	522	373	283
  1983	2500000	20000	637	4,861	4,659	1,134	1,053	972	681	567	405	308
  1984	2700000	21600	688	5,250	5,032	1,225	1,138	1,050	735	613	438	333
  1985	2900000	23200	739	5,639	5,404	1,316	1,222	1,128	789	658	470	357
  1986	3000000	24000	764	5,834	5,591	1,361	1,264	1,167	817	681	486	369
  1987	3200000	25600	815	6,223	5,963	1,452	1,348	1,245	871	726	519	394
  1988	3300000	26400	841	6,417	6,150	1,497	1,390	1,283	898	749	535	406
  1989	3500000	28000	892	6,806	6,522	1,588	1,475	1,361	953	794	567	431
  1990	3750000	30000	955	7,292	6,988	1,701	1,580	1,458	1,021	851	608	462
  1991	4000000	32000	1,019	7,778	7,454	1,815	1,685	1,556	1,089	907	648	493
  1992	4200000	33600	1,070	8,167	7,827	1,906	1,770	1,633	1,143	953	681	517
  1993	4300000	34400	1,096	8,362	8,013	1,951	1,812	1,672	1,171	976	697	530
  1994	4500000	36000	1,146	8,750	8,386	2,042	1,896	1,750	1,225	1,021	729	554
  1995	4750000	38000	1,210	9,237	8,852	2,155	2,001	1,847	1,293	1,078	770	585
  1996	5000000	40000	1,274	9,723	9,318	2,269	2,107	1,945	1,361	1,134	810	616
  1997	5200000	41600	1,325	10,112	9,690	2,359	2,191	2,022	1,416	1,180	843	640
  1998	5300000	42400	1,350	10,306	9,877	2,405	2,233	2,061	1,443	1,202	859	653
  1999	5500000	44000	1,401	10,695	10,249	2,496	2,317	2,139	1,497	1,248	891	677
  2000	5750000	46000	1,465	11,181	10,715	2,609	2,423	2,236	1,565	1,304	932	708
  2001	6000000	48000	1,529	11,667	11,181	2,722	2,528	2,333	1,633	1,361	972	739
  2002	6100000	48800	1,554	11,862	11,368	2,768	2,570	2,372	1,661	1,384	988	751
  2003	6200000	49600	1,580	12,056	11,554	2,813	2,612	2,411	1,688	1,407	1,005	764
  2004	6300000	50400	1,605	12,251	11,740	2,858	2,654	2,450	1,715	1,429	1,021	776
  2005	6500000	52000	1,656	12,640	12,113	2,949	2,739	2,528	1,770	1,475	1,053	801
  2006	6700000	53600	1,707	13,028	12,486	3,040	2,823	2,606	1,824	1,520	1,086	825
  2007	6800000	54400	1,732	13,223	12,672	3,085	2,865	2,645	1,851	1,543	1,102	837
  2008	6900000	55200	1,758	13,417	12,858	3,131	2,907	2,683	1,878	1,565	1,118	850
  2009	7000000	56000	1,783	13,612	13,045	3,176	2,949	2,722	1,906	1,588	1,134	862
  2010	7100000	56800	1,809	13,806	13,231	3,221	2,991	2,761	1,933	1,611	1,151	874
  2011	7300000	58400	1,860	14,195	13,604	3,312	3,076	2,839	1,987	1,656	1,183	899
  2012	7400000	59200	1,885	14,390	13,790	3,358	3,118	2,878	2,015	1,679	1,199	911
  2013	7500000	60000	1,911	14,584	13,976	3,403	3,160	2,917	2,042	1,701	1,215	924
  Total:		1570000	50,000	381,618	365,718	89,044	82,684	76,324	53,427	44,522	31,802	24,169

  It's based on rough publisher numbers each year and is designed to show the number of deaths per year and in total likely caused by the different factors based on the rates per the population at large (from the US).

  Now, somethings I think are notable.

  50,000 deaths by refusing blood would be over twice the number of suicides. Are suicides easier or harder to 'hide' from stats? Do we know those?

  It's also about the same as would die from Alzheimers or dementia. How many do you know die from those? Any? Many? You need the same number to have died refusing blood. Same for diabetes.

  Now, for every one you know who's died of influenza or stroke, about 2/3rds of that number died from refusing blood.

  And finally, for every 7 or 8 people who die from heart disease or cancer, one is dying from refusing blood.

  That's if you take the 50,000 figure. Obviously, the 250,000 gives even wilder outcomes - in fact you're nearly at the 50/50 level of being off'd by blood refusal as by one of the leading causes of death for the general population.

  Whether you find those figures believable or not based on your own experience is up to everyone to decide.
• 

  Simon

  250,000 would mean 15% of JW deaths were due to refusal of blood treatment.

  Sorry, I just don't buy it.

  (and sorry, the table formatting didn't really come out)
• 

  Marvin Shilmer

  -

  “Here's one you've never answered, and the answer COULD vastly inflate the number of your extrapolation:

  “How many of those 19 JW's who died by refusing a BT were in the 16-18 y.o. age range?

  “No need for an rationalization of how it wouldn't matter or such excuse, Marvin; just a simple number will suffice.”

  Adamah,

  Beliaev does not document how many 16-18-year olds died in the JW group.

  Now tell everyone why this could vastly inflate the number of my extrapolation. Can you please do that?

  “Also Marvin, I think you are going off your experience which differs greatly to other people's. Why does your experience count and others don't? You are quick to dismiss other people's experience of *not* coming across many cases of JWs dying because of blood.”

  Simon,

  No. I can’t use my experience to extrapolate real numbers. I can only extrapolate real numbers with real data before me with a face value.

  I have not dismissed anyone else’s experience, either. It’s quite common for JWs to not have firsthand experience/knowledge of a JW who they know for sure died due to blood refusal. What I’ve done is used numbers to show why this experience can be real despite the numbers I’ve extrapolated. In other words, I’ve used numbers to demonstrate why this lack of firsthand knowledge is no refutation of my extrapolation but, rather, consistent with my extrapolation. This is not a dismissal of other people’s experience.

  “50,000 deaths by refusing blood would be over twice the number of suicides. Are suicides easier or harder to 'hide' from stats? Do we know those?”

  Suicides are easier to identify than mortality due to refusing blood.

  Also, the data you’re using appears to come from cause of death data. Refusing blood is not usually cited as cause of death. For instance, cause of death from hemorrhage due to blunt trauma by a patient who refuses red cell transfusion would not be listed as “died due to refusing blood”. This is one of many reasons why these deaths fly under the radar and whose quantity is identified only by retrospective statistical analysis.

  The deaths we're discussing are buried in the figures you cite above. They're buried all the way across the board, sometimes even the deaths by suicide believe it or not.

  “It's also about the same as would die from Alzheimers or dementia. How many do you know die from those? Any? Many? You need the same number to have died refusing blood. Same for diabetes.”

  Same as above.

  “Now, for every one you know who's died of influenza or stroke, about 2/3rds of that number died from refusing blood.:

  Same.

  “And finally, for every 7 or 8 people who die from heart disease or cancer, one is dying from refusing blood.”

  Same.

  “That's if you take the 50,000 figure. Obviously, the 250,000 gives even wilder outcomes - in fact you're nearly at the 50/50 level of being off'd by blood refusal as by one of the leading causes of death for the general population.”

  JWs with severe blood loss have a very good chance of dying if they refuse blood. It’s just no listed as cause of death.

  “Whether you find those figures believable or not based on your own experience is up to everyone to decide.”

  I see nothing in your chart that surprises me.

  “250,000 would mean 15% of JW deaths were due to refusal of blood treatment.

  “Sorry, I just don't buy it.”

  Close, but not exactly.

  If 250,000 JWs died because of refusing blood then it means this would be 250,000 deaths in addition to the standard mortality we would expect.

  To put this in perspective, 5x 50,000 deaths over the period of 1961-2011 would translate into about 1 death annually per 11 congregations. Given how these deaths can go unidentified without by retrospective statistical analysis that rate could be happening right in front of our eyes and we’d not realize it.

  If we take this figure of 5x 50,000 death over the greater period of 1945-2013 the reality would be even harder to see.

  Simon,

  It looks like I’m out of posts again. Don’t know when I can reply.

  Marvin Shilmer