by mrquik 89 Replies latest jw friends
I think people will wake up after this 2014 year has come and gone.
It will be easier to see in hindsight, IMO, that this year was all a glorious distraction.
The borg will not be able to keep up this level of activity. People will feel the obvious lull and have time to think.
You could see the numbers drop in 2015 for the first time in many years.
It may continue to slowly drop going forward. I personally hope to see this.
-TE
An important consideration re the 1975 walkout is this: was it Watchtower policy to shun disassociated ones back in 1975? No. So it was much easier to leave back then. But since the introduction of shunning for disassociated ones since 1980/81, it has become more difficult to walk out. The threat of losing family means that a scandal of comparable magnitude to 1975 would see a smaller exodus - or at least a much less visible and less vocal exodus, with people choosing to simply fade and go inactive rather than formally disassociate.
Don't be surprised if Watchtower implements a new draconian policy in the near future that says inactive ones who miss x number of consequetive meetings will be considered as having disassociated themsleves and are to be treated the same as those who have formally disassociated themselves.
Nope. I do believe that they will shrink over time but it will be a death by a thousand cuts not a mass exodus.
The numbers may still be there on the books, but they already are diminishing in the seats. Many are simply not attending.
We've also known for a long time that the number of hours being reported is ficiticious.
MANY of those who are there, are there for the "community" or social network that exists within the WT Organization.
WHAT WILL REALLY HURT THE WTS IS IF THEY LEAVE THEIR CHECKBOOKS AT HOME.
With the huge sell off of property; the sneaky take-over of Kingdom Hall property; and especially the absolution of mortages, I predict that many JWs will just be apathetic about giving much money. All they'll see is the need to pay utilities and local expenses. Screw sending that cash to WT HQ.
The older ones are the most in need of their social network, so they will continue on and they are often more gullible and thus will keep giving. But, they are the "older ones" which means that when they die..........the cashflow stops.
Apathy will gradually squeeze the life out of the WTS as we know it. They already see it, thus the money grad we are currently witnessing.
Doc
If they leave in this pivotal year, they could be in time for celebrating Christmas!!!
I expect that we are on the cusps of a mass(maybe a sort of critical mass) exodus. This money grab and the GB throwing caution to the wind, looks like they are really getting desperate. These are desperate times that call for desperate measures.
Looking back at the split that occured in the Worldwide Church of God could be helpful.
I can see shunning working on those leaving alone... that makes sense. However, leaving with entire families who have had it in tow? Now you're talking mass exodus.
The recruiting efforts building up to 1975 actually gathered them up enough people and money for their goals. They paid for modernization of the printing company and the number of people who left was smaller than the number recruited.
They are operating on similar assumptions now and I think they are wrong. They think they will retain more than they lose by lightening the load of elders and members as far as meetings go but cracking the whip on all members to "obey."
In the book, THE TIPPING POINT, the author, Gladwell defines a tipping point as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point". The book seeks to explain and describe the "mysterious" sociological changes that mark everyday life. As Gladwell states, "Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do". The examples of such changes in his book include the rise in popularity and sales of Hush Puppies shoes in the mid-1990s and the steep drop in the New York City crime rate after 1990. It has nothing to do with JW's, but it is possible to reach that critical mass or boiling point with the members.
For me, it should have been making "this generation" unattached from people alive in 1914. To me, it seems that it should have been further changes in major doctrines about "this generation," or the FDS, or laying off Bethelites, or the UN membership, or now- seizing congregation moneys. But if I didn't wake up for a decade past the generation change, others may take time to wake up (or never do it) as far as the latest changes come and go. The members did not walk out in masses when the 20th century passed. I doubt the 100 year anniversary of Christ's presence will do it either.
I hope I am wrong. But I see smaller numbers waking up at each point. I see younger ones leaving at adulthood or getting DF'ed and never going back. I see the organization peaking somewhere around where it is now. (I think it peaked after 7 million and the numbers are slightly bogus now.) But the shrinking of the organization would go past my lifetime, maybe another 100 years.
Still, that one lawsuit or one GB member being caught with his hand down a boy's pants. That one big negative story about too many children dying over doctrinal issues. It could reach critical mass. I don't care for six screens or AAWA or protesting at Conventions/Memorials. I see these things as the prophesized persecution they tell members about. But who knows? Maybe something will stick. If anything, I think it would be the pedophile issues.
I still doubt anything like a "mass exodus", despite the comments above. I think that many of us who have left have forgotten what it was like to be in the WT bubble.
Our minds were so warped by what were constantly told that we simply discounted any negative thoughts of our own or comments from others, as these occurred our minds were already primed with an answer to them that left us feeling secure and superior in our judgement. We were faithfully ignoring what was in front of our noses.
I think there will maybe at best be an increase in attrition, and if past experience is anything to go by, this takes a while to happen after the "trigger" event or events.
We may see a discernable drop in numbers, especially in the West, around 2017/8 is my guess.
But not a Mass Exodus.
Edited to add : I have just read OTWO's excellent post above, and I agree, I think paedophile issues will be the biggest problem for the WT. As soon as they surface in huge numbers, which is bound to happen, it will show the JW's that their religion is no different to others, and that Holy Spirit is certainly not having anything to do with their religion.
