Fudging the Numbers: Is the WTBTS in decline?

by Coded Logic 46 Replies latest watchtower scandals

• 

  Phizzy

  Thank you Konceptual99 for your appraisal, very well thought out, and I am sure your estimation, and prognosis, is accurate.

  I think it is clear that "fudging the numbers" has gone on for a long time, but as decline in real terms is happening in many places, they will have to "fudge" a bit more in the future.

  Then the mind-controled JW's will have a feeling that overall, worldwide, everything is fine and dandy, and the fact that they are sitting in a Kingdom Hall with an ageing and dwindling congregation is just a parochial problem.

  You certainly can fool some of the people all of the time.

  The slow downward spiral will be imperceptible to the R&F JW's, especially as most who saw dramatic growth in their time are now coming to the end of their lives.

  I am confident that the "religion" (Scam) will be, if not gone, then hard to find because it will be so small, in fifty years time.
• 

  Splash

  Watchtower-Free Branch closings last 3 years... (list of 41 branches)

  The 2010 yearbook says there were 118 branches in 2009. This is the highest number of branches in any yearly report.
  The 2014 yearbook says there were 91 branches in 2013.
  This gives a total of 27 closed branches according to the yearbooks.

  Why the discrepancy? What about the 'missing' 14 branches?

  Splash
• 

  dozy

  There were 63 baptised in Scotland at the convention. Add on those baptised at the circuit & special days and you are maybe talking about 140 for the year. That's in a country of 5.5 million people and is mostly made up of JW kids getting their rite of passage dunk at 14 - 16 years old. So maybe 50 have come in through the ministry. That is a tiny amount and doubtless typical of most european countries. The WTBTS has definitely gone ex-growth now in the 1st world.
• 

  Apognophos

  Why the discrepancy? What about the 'missing' 14 branches?

  Some of these "branches" were probably the equivalent of a hut on a desert island with a single palm tree, so maybe the Society never considered them branches in the first place.
• 

  Londo111

  http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/278850/1/New-field-service-rules-coming-this-summer

  Good intel is that the Watchtower will introduce “new ways” to count time. Likely, this will have an impact on not only total field service hours, but bump up the publisher count as well. If they drop the auxiliary pioneer quota to 30 hours, and the regular pioneer quota to 50, then there might be a bump there as well, especially if it is easier to make one's time.

  If it is suddenly easier to make one’s time, then it could be that a large swath of suddenly irregular or inactive JWs will become active. Suddenly, it might seem like a “large increase”…praise Jah for speeding things up! But in reality, nothing has changed but the beancounting. It might be meaningless for us to compare the new metrics to the old…although the Watchtower will obviously present it as a seamless continuity.

  Another thought, more previously “unqualified” males might now qualify to be appointed ministerial servants and elders because they are making their hours. This could solve the shortage.
• 

  eva luna

  Marked-

  I dont know why I still care . But I know a brilliant business person, who was recently converted.

  I ache to share some of this. The Pedo payouts too.
• 

  Paris

  7 million people ? Represents family groups ? The avergae family size in the US is 2.5 people per family? Lets take that low figure and this means there are 2,800,000 total families who are JW's in the entire planet earth. Earth has nearly 8 billion people.

  2.8 million families are a a very small number. It is equivalent to a medium sized, not large city. Paris France has 10.8 million people. Los Angeles has nearly 15 million people living in L.A. City. Tokyo, Japan, has over 37 million people in that one city.
• 

  wifibandit

  Baptisms are going to dive. The internet is taking its toll.

  
• 

  Paris

  New baptisms are probably 80% withing existing families, children from 8 years old to early teens being pressured by the elders and their parents who are frightened they will become "worldly" and do something crazy, like going to university.
• 

  TheOldHippie

  "The avergae family size in the US is 2.5 people per family? Lets take that low figure and this means there are 2,800,000 total families who are JW's in the entire planet earth."

  Estimating number of families worldwide based on average family size in the US is violating just about every demographic principle there is. You just cannot do that.