Calebs I think is right I mean what percentage of the population is over 65, its got to be pretty high and when they all start to die off.
Fudging the Numbers: Is the WTBTS in decline?
by Coded Logic 46 Replies latest watchtower scandals
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jookbeard
Slimboyfat has us believe that they are the fastest growing group on the planet
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jhi29
Thanks Phizzy! Good to be here.
It's the dyed-in-the-wool types that puzzle me so much. Unquestioning, unfailing loyalty... exactly what they'd accuse dyed-in-the-wool Catholics, worshipping their Pope! I recently ran into the lady that converted our family back in the mid-80's and she was clearly dressed for FM. Since she felt the need to chat, I asked her if she was on a break. She said yes and laughed nervously, as if it's still a subconscious embarrassment to do what she was doing.
I felt that way as a teenager, but my god, she's in her 60's! If you're not over it by now sweetie...
Ah well! And then she reached out to rub my arm and said it was SO good to see me, with that pre-packaged condescension of an active JW to whatever they've labeled me as. Apparently not DF'd though! I simply smiled wide and said thank you, It's nice to be seen. -
donuthole
Baptism numbers are largely irrevelant. Watchtower growth is tracked according to active PUBLISHERS, baptized or not. Why does this matter? Practically every child born in a JW household will at some point become a publisher, contributing to the overall growth rate. That doesn't mean however that they'll in to be baptized, or won't be disfellowshipped in the later teens/early adulthood.
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steve2
Baptism numbers matter because for decades the organization itself touted the increased number baptized as evidence theirs was a rapidly growing organization. Symbolically it also represents formalizing one's relationship with the organization. Also, donuthole, you refer to active publishers being the way the organization's growth is tracked. Again, this was more the case with the organization's own reports in the past. Nowadays they tout such statistics as memorial attendances and number of tracts handed out.
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OneEyedJoe
So I was playing around with google.com/trends with some JW related search terms. I found the results a bit surprising, and certainly interesting, so I figured I'd share.
First off, the link to what I tried: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0dtdq%2C%20jw.org&cmpt=q
One of the most surprising things that stood out was the regional interest. The top 3 countries for both "jw.org" and "Jehovah's witnesses" searches are Angola, Zambia and Congo, and the entire top 10 of both lists is dominated entirely by the 3rd world. Now, I think google scales these based on the total search volume from the regions in question, so it's perhaps a little less shocking, but it does show that the per capita interest in JWism is much higher in 3rd world countries than it is in the more educated/secular places. On a scale from 1 to 100 the US ranks a 6 for interest in JWs, and the UK comes in at 3. Pretty dismal, I'd say.
Another thing that I found interesting was the related searches section. The top 2 related searches for jw.org (once you skip the obvious "jw") are both clearly made by spanish speakers (and jw.org/es - the spanish site - also made the top 10). Also, several of the top 10 related searches for "Jehovah's Wittness" are clearly not english. It seems that the bulk of the interest in JWism is from latin america(since spain is significantly more secular than latin america, i think we can assume spaniards are contributing very little to the spanish JW related searches) or from immigrants originating in latin america. This supports what I've seen in the US, where it seems the only congregations that are growing are foreign language groups, and especially the spanish congregations (though they seem to be plateauing).
The JW.org campaign of august does seem to have had a little success with a peak in interest in august. However, I suspect the roughly 50% increase from July to August was less than what the typical R/F JW would expect. Where was that success, though? Not in the US or UK! If you filter by region, interest in JW.org peaked in January of 2013 in the US and October of 2013 (the app/bible release) in the UK.
I think by itself this is essentially irrefutable evidence that the JWs are experiencing decline in the US, UK and western europe.
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Apognophos
Fascinating, OEJ. I wonder if anyone has any other ideas on why those African countries are ranking so much higher than the rest of the world. I feel like your post should probably be in a new thread just to draw more people's attention to it.
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OneEyedJoe
I feel like your post should probably be in a new thread just to draw more people's attention to it.
Done:
I almost started a new thread, but wasn't sure if it deserved to be on its own, but since you seconded the idea...
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Vidiot
punkofnice - "I'm sure they will survive because I don't want them to."
Okay...
...maybe try wishing for them to survive, then?
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OnTheWayOut
Okay, baptism numbers are VERY important. Unbaptized publishers, mostly non-adults, will not continue as members for years and years. They either get baptized or walk away.
They have reached their peak and are about to experience a sharp decline in baptisms over the next few years. I'd say the life expectancy of the JW cult is about another 25 to 30 years...
I hope that's right. If nothing else, I look forward to my wife walking away from being "active" sometime in retirement. If she never wakes up, I would love to see the cult around her simply shut down.