by Farkel 83 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
minimus,
: Stop posting dumb fluff about your old "glory days" and bring on the pizza challenge.
That's just too "spiritually deep" for folks, and folks who like pineapple on their pizza are too braindead to understand anything, let alone the "spiritually deep" stuff that would be required to fully pull off an effective pizza challenge
Besides that, pineapple on pizza is not Bible-Based(tm) at all.
Farkel
Edited by - Farkel on 8 September 2002 21:33:15
Yes watch out there is a tower falling and it is the WATCHTOWER !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dubs are now going to college and in college have their minds opened to critical thinking and real science. Once that happens, the Cult begins to lose their ever-needed grip. Every time the WTS speaks publicly about its problems, it shoots itself in the foot, but these days those statements are circulated around the world to hundreds of millions of potential viewers in mere seconds after they are uttered or written.
Indeed. It seems like this "Tool of satan" may be the one to topple the tower!!
Actually, I agree that the WT will never die, there will always be SOME die hard hangers on. But what about the next generation of dubs? More and more young ones are leaving or getting Df every year - the ones that are left are merely chair warmers, hardly of them have a real genuine "Zeal" for the troof. So you have to think, what will the next generation be comprised of? I believe that the WT is in a very bad state at the moment, and its reputation has probably never been worse. I predict that the WT will soon begin making very big changes. It will either go more mainstream, or go more cult like, unfortunately from recent changes, it seems as if its heading in the direction of the latter.
larc,
Here's a final thought on your statistics:
: As I recall, the average rate from 1945 to 1955 was about 15%. From 1955 to 1965 it had dropped to about 10%. In the 70's and 80's it had slipped to about 6%. In the late 80's and mid 90's it had dropped to 4%. From about 96 until today, the rate is about 2%, only a half a percent above population growth, with all of their growth coming from underdeveloped nations.
Wouldn't that be somewhat to-be-expected? I mean if you have one member in a group and that one member brings in another member, you have a 100% increase! Very impressive, but can you expect 6,000,000 members to each bring in a member to sustain that 100% increase? If so, then next year, 12,000,000 members would have to bring in another 12,000,000 members to keep the percent of increase stable.
In the few years preceeding 1975 I remember about 200-300 thousand new members being added each year. In Rutherford's day, such an increase would be an increase of 400%-600%.
Doesn't the principle of diminishing returns enter in as a group grows, even if they all are supposed to be evangelizers?
Farkel
Edited by - Farkel on 8 September 2002 22:28:49
Farkel: Well stated !!! ... All the things you mention have been brought by ex-JWs all over the world ... the prolem is not "local" as we used to be told, but is systemic, and permeates the entire organization from top to bottom and back again ... a serious spiritual, emotional, and mental cancer plagues the members ... it is terminal, and in time the religion will shrink back from a small pond to a mud-puddle to collect a few misfits here and there ... you are right, its glory days ended in the aftermath of 1975 and beyond ... AND ... we can add that when they ousted Ray Franz, they surrendered their opportunity to reform and become a half-way decent little religion.
Farkel: Your point about growth diminshing over time is very good. It is used in Harvard business studies, such as examination of new business growth during the critical initial phases, then rapid growth, then slowing, and eventual stability. It is somewhat like the bathtub curve.
I believe that the 200-300 thousand per year growth in the early 1970s was their peak growth in terms of percentage ... there were just over a million JWs in 1969 ... so a 200,000 increase would be a 20% growth ... that is exceptional for a group like that, ... it was their equivalent to a business rapid period of expansion ... and their "Glory" days ... by the 1980s they were slowing, and by the 1990s hit stability ... the only difference for them now is the Information-Internet age and scandals hitting them all at once ... this will trigger a loss of stability, and most assuredly serious long term decline.
Edited by - Amazing on 8 September 2002 22:51:36
Amazing,
: this will trigger a loss of stability, and most assuredly serious long term decline.
And this of course, will bring economic havoc. With the long term decline in JW membership, doughnut and coffee shops will go out of business en masse because so few dubs will be out in "field service" eating doughnuts and drinking coffee. The resulting decline will cause a total collapse of the world's financial systems and usher in Armageddon.
I'll have to check first, but I'm nearly certain that this is all Bible-Based.
This subject also makes me wonder why the world's financial systems and economies had not already collapsed when dub membership was really growing. I'm talking about the way they tip in restaurants, of course.
Farkel
Edited by - Farkel on 8 September 2002 23:13:13
Amazing and Farkel, the initial rapid growth, continued growth followed and eventual stabalization in the size of a business, is related to a lot of variables. One important variable is market share. Now, to make the analogy to the JW's, they have always had a very small market share, so this is not a limit to their growth, and all other things being equal, which they are not, they did have the potential for high growth rates for a very long time. Amazing, their peak growth was not in the 70's if you look at the whole decade, rather than just one year, e.g., 1974. As I said before, the highest growth rate was from 1945-1955. Now, if %'s were totally based on original size, then growth rates should have been higher in the 30's, which they were not.
Just want to say "thanks", Farkel ...............
Larc:
You are as STUPID AS EVER, simple as that.
I just looked at my 1975 Yearbook, and it gives 1.6 million average Publishers for 1973.
Today, there are 6 million.
That's pretty DAMN GOOD GROWTH for just about anything you would like to measure. You can play all the "statistical games" with whatever numbers you like, but they will just make a BIGGER FOOL of YOU.
Yeh, the WTS is currently in a stagnate period.
SO WHAT? Do you think this is their first, or their last?
As I have already pointed out, time and circumstance are on their side. Just wait until another significant word crisis happens, and their numbers will take off AGAIN. And if such doesn't happen soon enough for their likings, they can play their "prophecy card" in a fashion that is appropriate for the times.
As for "no more glory", you FOOLS argue one day that the WTS is "filty rich" and then the next dy that they are barely alive.
What about the "glory" of numbers? Compare ANY yearbook statistic with the same for 30 years ago!
What about the "glory" of "real property"? Compare the Branch facilities with those 30 years ago! Compare the KHs with those 30 years ago! How many Assembly Halls existed 30 years ago?
Hell, the only problem the WTS has is is getting their hands on MORE than their annual ONE BILLION DOLLARS to keep up with their expansion.
