Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios) (page 3)

Saintbertholdt

"JW facts states I believe for every two the get baptised one leaves, I'm thinking it's becoming a one to one ratio."

So you would propose it will become static? When and at what number?

JWs have not been the "only" kid on the block for decades - their claimed days of being "the fastest growing religious group in the world" are well and truly over, as the religiuosly needy flood to other groups for consolation.

Yeah they're actually following a very set growth pattern now.

If my pessimist projection is correct they can actually stop their preaching activity today and still achieve some growth. Their preaching work is not really adding that much anymore. To become "the fastest growing" religion they'd have to discard a lot of the unattractive ideas like the blood doctrine, door to door etc. And that won't happen anytime soon.

dropoffyourkeylee

The JWs are growing in some third world countries at a much higher rate than in the Western countries. What will happen in time is a movement away from the U.S. to other parts of the world. The problem is that there is little or no money there and it becomes an issue of financing rather than numbers of adherents. The WT faces the problem of trying to finance the world evangelizing while their traditional breadbasket (US primarily) is drying up.

no-zombie

With deep respect to the work that 'Saintbertholdt' has done in regards to the Witness growth projections, I think that the numbers are too simplistic in just considering the publisher/population ratios as the basis of his calculations. I think that the true situation is far worse for the organization when the average age quotient is put into the mix.

This is because that the average age of a population has always been the true predictor of the future fertility rates.

And as the average age of a country increases (without the immigration of breading couples) and the tipping point of population menopause is reached, the rate of population decline is not linear but exponential. This is the real horror now facing industrialized nations like Japan and Germany.

In a direct application to the organization, first consider the average population country by country. You can quickly see the figures by going to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age. For example, here in Australia the average population age is 37.5 but the average in congregations would have at least 45-50. So then make an honest comparison to your own congregation. What will you find? I'd wager that the average age of the congregation is already least 10-15 years older than your national average.

By looking at the ratio of breeding age individuals as opposed to pre-menopausal and menopausal individuals and you will come to the understanding why so many congregations are dying or being amalgamating. And also remember that as a population ages so does it productive output. As the general publisher population ages, their work participation rate, work efficiency rate and actual effectivity rate to bring in replacement converts rapidly falls off dramatically.

Everything revolves around having children; and lots of them. A historical study of population growth rates reveal that only in countries where women who have 4-6 children in her lifetime are the places where real growth occurs.

Without them, nations or religions will die very quickly.

People may lie but numbers don't.

joe134cd

No-zombie- I can vouch for your comments. While I was awakening, and becoming aware of how the JWs we're ageing, and actually used to count the people sitting in the hall by age. Basically 3/4 were 40 and over and 1/4 were 40 and under with a light sprinkling or the 18-25 year age group

Vidiot

Years back, elders were complaining that young people were "leaving in droves"...

...imagine how much more it is, now.

elderINewton

As a couple of others have stated the demographics are the key missing pieces to this analysis.

If you take America, Canada, France, Germany, England, and Italy with its close to 2 million publishers, its probably safe to assume that 50% is greater than 60 years of age. So the average death rate is likely to increase over the world averages quickly. Its actually one of the reasons I suspect the cash grabs is now while people are "younger."

With that in mind and the meager increases, the death rate is likely to overtake the growth of 2ish % they are seeing. I suspect we are only 3-5 years from a normal -1% decrease.

A few years ago I would have thought differently due to growth in developing countries, but that stagnated slightly so, I'm back to the -1ish guess in the 3-5.

Vidiot

Sainbertholdt - "If my pessimist projection is correct they can actually stop their preaching activity today and still achieve some growth."

Well, considering that - at this point in time - the preaching work accomplishes pretty much zilch... um, yeah.

Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

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