Some Watchtower growth projection numbers (5 scenarios)

by Saintbertholdt 27 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Crazyguy

  The numbers they report now are inflated, little kids being counted old ones in rest homes etc. These numbers will continue to be inflated but more young ones will leave as it becomes obvious that they are no longer relevant. They are not closing down halls all over because they continue to grow at 1-2% per year like they claim.
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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi John,

  "The little one himself will become a thousand, and the small one a mighty nation. I myself, Jehovah,shall speed it up in its own time."

  Perhaps if they have a speed up of the acceleration :)
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  Saintbertholdt

  The 'Lost World' scenario is where the Watchtower has a double the average PpPpD Ratio for the 2010-2020 decade and is then followed by the same growth rate as the 'New World' scenario. This however cannot be done anymore because the decade is half completed and therefore a reasonable projection can be calculated.

  Considering the state of the World economy from 2008 onward its actually quite a surprise that the Watchtower couldn't bolster numbers further than they have. They have bucked the trend by about double, but its still not enough.

  So in this lost paradise scenario, which is highly improbable, what would the numbers have looked like?

  The 'Lost World' scenario

  
  

  Note: Peak numbers in 2050 hit 23.4 million, but this opportunity seems to have passed the Watchtower corporation by. On the other hand stranger things have happened and you never know, ...buuuuut I don't think it will.

  Next the pessimist and Watchtower Armageddon scenarios.
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  Saintbertholdt

  So the Pessimist scenario addresses what most people have and will comment on in that there's a slow exodus from the Watchtower. To back that up the PpPpD Ratio has been declining quite linearly between 1990 and 2010. The 2010 decade is bucking the trend though. So what if the old trend resumed after 2020? This would hinge on the idea that sanity prevails and the US decides to stop lending, Greece finally defaults (as it should but probably won't do), the world licks its wounds and promises to return to fiscal prudence. Alternatively the US could innovate its way out of its predicament as it has done in the past with things like the 'green revolution' and the 'internet revolution'. Although the Pessimist scenario is also an unlikely scenario it could also conceivably happen.

  The Pessimist scenario

  
  

  Note: Peak numbers in 2050 end at 10.3 million publishers. Actually not that pessimistic if you come to think about it. Only a million less than the 'reasonable' estimate. The fact is you can't undo 100 years of growth that easily. Witnesses also multiply and have children who are brought up as witnesses and they most probably remain tied to the religion (for some time into adulthood anyway). This is the trend in all other religions on the planet. But what if there was a massive scandal? The final scenario 'The Watchtower Armageddon' scenario covers that.
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  Saintbertholdt

  What if a major cataclysmic scandal hits the Watchtower in the next couple of Years?
  For example: On 5 November 2017 the Watchtower declares chapter 11.
  Who knows why? Perhaps bad investments, and they run out of funds during their building project upheaval and end up making lots of debt that the faithful can't cover. Who knows? Cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria :) Then the scandals keep on coming (sexual abuse, lawsuits etc.) and they do something really dumb like they try another date prediction, which backfires.

  So in this scenario this decades PpPpD drops to zero. Then I use the inverse value (a reverse velocity) of the best decades PpPpD in ascending order. This scenario is a wild wild speculation but then again its Armageddon :)

  A Watchtower Armageddon projection

  
  

  Note: The Average publisher level in 2050 is 1.38 million. Very bad but the organization still survives. Come to think of it, its actually not that bad for the Governing Body. The Risk of Ruin of the organization is virtually zero.

  So if I was a betting man (which I am), I'd put the odds as follows:

  1. The Most Probable and Reasonable Scenario - (1 in 2)

  2. The 'New World' scenario - (1 in 3)

  3. The 'Lost World' scenario - (1 in 10)

  4. The Pessimist scenario - (1 in 3)

  5. A Watchtower Armageddon projection - (1 in 20+)
  
  

  Conclusion: I come to the unfortunate conviction that the Watchtower corporation is here to stay, but that its growth will be less optimistic than the GB would like. General lows from about 10 to a high of 13 million publishers can be expected in 2050. The extremes (3 deviation limit) are about 1.3 and 23 million.

  All in all slightly cloudy with a chance of showers :)

  Thanks for all the comments so far.

  I'd like to hear your odds and comments on these projections or even your own number projections.

  Greetings SB

  
  
  
  
  
• 

  freddo

  But it's becoming an empty shell. For example -

  Meeting attendance - the quality of dubs (ie staying power, stamina) is dropping.

  We need a Publisher to Meeting attendance ratio or percentage.

  DBOS = Dub Bums On seats.

  I reckon the DBOS is down in the last 15 years from 95% to 75% nowadays in the western world.

  The percentage of nominal low hour publishers is probably one-third to 40%.

  They are hollowing out from the inside.
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  Saintbertholdt

  Hi Freddo,

  So based on your idea that "...the quality of dubs (ie staying power, stamina) is dropping." how many average publishers do you project in 2050?

  Just for reference: The 2014 number (In the 2015 yearbook) is 7 867 958.
• 

  Saintbertholdt

  I created a Straw Poll with the Question:

  In 2050 how many Jehovah's Witness publishers will there be on average?

  http://strawpoll.de/oIRz9ky
  
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  Crazyguy

  JW facts states I believe for every two the get baptised one leaves, I'm thinking it's becoming a one to one ratio.
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  steve2

  The Watchtower is a millenialist religious group whose appeal in the modern world is on the wane.

  Each religious movement has its "moment" in time before it is replaced/superseded by something else.

  Look at the explosive growth of memberhsip in the so-called "Pentecostal"/"charismatic groups - it absolutely dwarves the growth of JWs.

  Look at the stunning resurgence of Islamist groups in the West.

  Here in New Zealand, the biggest growth was among Hindus from 1st and 2nd generation Indian immigrants - and this in a country where No Religious Affiliation is one of the fastest growing census categories.

  So, even if there are cataclysmic events that drive people into religious adherence, there are compelling reasons for concluding people will gravitate to the smorsgasbord of other religious groups crowding the market.

  JWs have not been the "only" kid on the block for decades - their claimed days of being "the fastest growing religious group in the world" are well and truly over, as the religiuosly needy flood to other groups for consolation.