I think the OP is right that the current harsh, hardline disfellowshipping policy creates a rod for their own back that they can't afford anymore. Violence begets violence, and the WT isn't in the position it once was where harsh discipline was an effective tool of terror to keep people in line. Previously, they were enjoying growth and could create an "us vs them", isolatory wall around the R&F that they were afraid of being on the outside of.
Things are different now. There are probably more exes and PIMOs than members and true believers. There is the internet. Anyone questioning anything can instantly find answers in the comfort and safety of their own home. And they also very quickly find out that they are not isolated and alone, the way the WT wants them to feel, but that there are support networks out there, for anyone who needs help.
Once they could rely on fear and compliance, but things have changed. MissDaSilva, far from quietly slipping out, feels confident enough to lob a grenade in her former elders' faces. If you live by the sword, you perish by the sword ⚔️, and the WT has created a class of angry warriors with nothing to lose, who would like nothing better than to see the Tower fall.
They're squeezing too hard in this day and age, and their harshness is coming back to bite them. So, logically, rationally, the best course is to end disfellowshipping, allow disassociation without consequences and try to support and strengthen the true believers still left in the ranks.
A brief footnote on disfellowshipping: the GB need to get straight in their heads the difference between sin and crime, and let the governing authorities investigate and sort out crime, which is their job.