I have a few JW relatives who are True Believers. By this I mean, they believe with all their heart that 1914 was the beginning of the last days, that this is the last generation, that we are in the very last of the last hour of this system of things, and that you should obey the Governing Body even if it does not make sense.
All of them are in their 60s and up into their 90s There is nothing you can say or show them to convince them or even cause a small doubt that the WT is not God Organization.
Any jw under 50 years of age I don't consider, for the most part, a True Believer. Most have their doubts and are just hanging in there, until something happens to them personally, and start those wheels turning as a wake up call that something is not right, then research, then WTF---it's not the Truth. And others are just waiting for their parents to die so they can stop attending. Also another group is those who have a spouse that is a true believer. These also just attend to be with their spouse, but once that spouse dies, I doubt they will keep attending.
Then you have the young JWs being born Today and for the past 20 years. This group will never be what you call TRUE BELIEVERS. These were born in the internet era and are aware of all the hypocrisy like all the child sexual abuse. They also are aware of all the bull like the overlapping generation and they hate the door to door work. And these jw just don't want to live the JW TYPE OF LIFE.
So my question; In about 20 years, the majority of those True Believers will pass and be gone. These are the ones that continue to support the WT organization financially. This are the ones that will go down with the ship-so to speak.
I think that at this point today, the Organization mostly comprised of about 4 million True Believers world wide. These are individuals willing to go to prison if the need arouse.
With this in mind, what amount of Jehovah Witnesses can we expect in the year 2040??? I say about 2- million or so, members world wide, maybe less. This will be the last group before the WT turns into some fringe group like the Bible students who still follow Charles Russell.
But they will have members - ONLY IF- they do away with Shunning, Blood Doctrine, and all the other details in doctrine that make them a target by the public. Especially 1914 and 607 are dates that will need to be eliminated if the Organization is to survive.
Because in 20 years, if the Organization is still preaching that we are in the last days since 1914, it will be embarrassing for anyone to become a part of an Organization riddle with so many embarrassing flip-flops that anyone will be able to see and research for themselves.
The Organization can't keep preaching the LAST DAYS FOR 160 YEARS - 2040-1879 = 161 years- without intense ridicule from everybody.