How confident are you about various so called facts?

by slimboyfat 175 Replies latest social entertainment

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    Cofty you've still got the problem that you think homeopathy is a likely to work as the earth is to be flat. Even from a realist position this is pretty incredible. And it blows apart the 100% certainties. Of course one is much more likely than the other. And nothing is 100% impossible, unless you claim we know everything there is to know about the nature of reality, which we never will.
  • LoveUniHateExams
    LoveUniHateExams

    if the human body is essentially a machine and aging is a technical failure then there must be a technical solution

    Why must there be a technical solution? Perhaps the human body is a 'machine', aging is a 'technical failure' and no 'solution' exists.

  • Simon
    Simon
    And nothing is 100% impossible, unless you claim we know everything there is to know about the nature of reality, which we never will.

    We don't need to know everything to know certain things won't happen.

    Could the molecules in my keyboard suddenly rearrange themselves into the shape of a Tea Pot? Wouldn't that be impossible? Surely it violates the laws of physics that we do know even though there may be more to be discovered.

    The "1% for doubt" is equally a margin or error or, statistically, 100% certainty.

    Saying that is impossible (100%) in no ways affects your ability to say the earth is 100% not flat.

    Trying to have a continuum even at the absolute extremes is a trick theists use. They take acceptance that you can't say with 100% certainty that there is no god to be the same as there being an equal chance that god exists.

    It's the reasoning from Dumb & Dumber where he asks the pretty girl what chance he has of going out with her. When she says "very, very, small" he takes that to mean "so you're saying there's a chance !!"

    There is no chance in reality. The earth is round, homeopathy is for idiots and my keyboard is in no danger of turning into a teapot. Arguing about which of these is more or less likely is pointless.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    Because the human body functions until it breaks down. If you stop it from breaking down you've stopped it aging. That's what I mean by technical solution. If you keep replacing any part which brakes there's no reason you can't ride the same bike indefinitely.
  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    Could the molecules in my keyboard suddenly rearrange themselves into the shape of a Tea Pot? Wouldn't that be impossible? Surely it violates the laws of physics that we do know even though there may be more to be discovered.

    Maybe such events as so extremely rare that in human terms they never happen. But in "reality" they do happen. Quantum leap.

  • LoveUniHateExams
    LoveUniHateExams

    Dinosaurs: I can also make the statement "Jesus existed" but if it turns out that the Jesus who existed was actually called Fred and did none of the things in the gospels, then in what sense did Jesus exist? - I don't think that this is a good comparison. Whether Jesus existed or it was really Fred, a member of Homo sapiens existed. The dinosaur clade contained many families, genera and species. Unless you want me to define 'dinosaur'?

    To deny the existence of dinosaurs (in any form) is to call all dino fossils hoaxes.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    Well personally I think there's a far greater chance homeopathy may somehow turn out to be effective than the earth turning out not to be a sphere, and it's worthwhile making the comparison.
  • LoveUniHateExams
    LoveUniHateExams

    Because the human body functions until it breaks down. If you stop it from breaking down you've stopped it aging. That's what I mean by technical solution. If you keep replacing any part which brakes there's no reason you can't ride the same bike indefinitely.

    But aging is the complete breakdown of the entire organism. If you kept replacing worn-out parts with new ones, would it still be the same individual, or would you end up with a new person?

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    No it's to acknowledge that we live inside language and "dinosaur" and "exist" are slippery in all sorts of predictable and unpredictable ways. Fake fossils are only one of a plethora of possibilities for breakdown of reality matching meaning.
  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat

    Our body renews itself anyway. I don't share any single molecule with my ten year old self do I? (Or is that a myth? No I think it's true, I'm not certain, but fairly sure - 85%)

    Reminds me of one of my favourite sayings: no man can cross the same river twice, for the second time it's a different river, and a different man.

    As time goes on you may replace every part on your bike, but as you do it one part at a time you hardly notice, and it remains the same bike.

Share this

Google+
Pinterest
Reddit