I think it makes sense given the world at the moment, wars in the middle east and the Ukraine etc
Yes, no doubt. It certainly makes me more inclined to go to the KH and to church. I suspect things in the world can get a whole lot worse too, with wars, AI, future pandemics. You name it. I think we’re in for a rough ride, and people need community in times like that.
It is true that some have incorrectly said the denomination is in actual decline. But what you seem to be misrepresenting, here and on other occasions, is that others including myself have correctly stated that their growth rate has declined.
Of course the rate of increase has declined. This is clear and I’ve never said otherwise. By contrast most other churches are trying to cope with severe declines and ultimately closure in the case of some denominations. Declining growth rates is an attractive “problem” for JWs to deal with compared with the severe declines other churches are facing.
And this remains the case in real terms despite their twiddling of the metrics.
Other churches do this too. For example some churches that required a financial contribution for membership have dropped that, and many churches now include online viewers in their attendance figures. That’s why I like the number of congregations metric more than others because it often (not always - no measure is perfect) gives a clearer picture of real long term trends across different groups.
Additionally, we all know that direct comparisons with other churches are invalid where there is no (or trivial) social impediment to leaving the church. This includes denominations that nominally ‘excommunicate’/‘disfellowship’ supposedly errant members but use the terms in a manner that does not actually involve shunning but just excludes them from attending religious services.
It sounds like you’re saying that because there is a reason for JW growth therefore the growth doesn’t count. But of course there is a reason, everything has a reason. More specifically, perhaps you’re saying that JW growth is morally tarnished because it’s accomplished by a practice you don’t approve. That’s fine as an ethical position if you want to take it. It’s not really what I’m talking about when I observe that JWs are continuing to grow while most other churches are declining. This is simply an empirical observation without saying it’s right or wrong, good or bad.
Having said that, it’s true that DFing is probably one reason for continued JW growth in among other factors, and for a complex set of reasons. In the 1990s sociologist Rodney Stark wrote a series of articles on JWs, Mormons, and growth patterns, in which he outlined a theory to explain why certain groups grow. Strictness and exclusion are factors and he identified a number of others as well. It’s not all down to one thing.
Another slightly ironic angle on the statement “JWs only grow because they disfellowship”, is that as they begin to downgrade shunning we will inevitably hear the converse claim too: “JWs are only growing because they dropped shunning”. We’ve already seen it debuted on the forum a few times and will no doubt amplify if they continue to grow, while they reduce shunning, and while other churches continue to decline.
It’s more complex than that. POMIs (etc) could be offset by families with multiple children who are counted as JWs in the census. This could also include spouses and adult children in the household who are counted as JWs by the ‘head of the house’ completing the census form.
However you explain away the high numbers of JWs in census returns, you should also explain why the same factors don’t affect Mormons or other groups. The simplest explanation is that JWs offer a modest count of their membership compared with other churches that often overstate their membership. But there is a lot of clutching at straws to try to avoid that obvious conclusion by any means possible.
