I have seen a few posts here, in various guises, in relation to whether Watchtower is in decline. Plenty of people respond, but it is all fairly anecdotal, or "gut feel". Some of it has been wishful thinking.
As of late 2015, Watchtower's numbers suggest it is still growing marginally, but there are various anecdotes on this site of publishers typically being older, and younger ones disappearing. Personally, I suspect there will never be a mass exodus, and that if Watchtower is to decline, it will be over a period of decades at least.
I think one of the most important indicators of future growth or decline, is the median age of the Witnesses. (By the way; "median age" does not mean the same thing as "average age". I am not going to explain the difference, here.)
Why is median age relevant?
- Virtually every country on the planet that has a median age of over 40 is experiencing zero or negative population growth. (In fact most countries experiencing significant population growth have median ages of 30 or less.)
- The effect of an increase in median age is not immediate. It plays out over decades.
- The effect has been masked by increases in life expectancy in most countries.
- Given that Watchtower struggles to gain recruits in the internet age, and is now heavily reliant on "born-ins" for future growth, I suspect the same applies to Watchtower.
Predicting growth from median age is a complicated topic, and the relevant median age that leads to a population decline depends on a number of factors and differs from region to region.
Japan is a good example. Its population peaked at 127.8 million in 2011 and is now back to around 126.8 million. It now has a median age of 45 and its population will inevitably continue to decline. The population decline has nothing to do with anything that happened since 2011, and everything to do with birth rates going back decades. In fact, the peak would have occurred before 2011, had it not been for increases in life expectancy.
I would say that if your local congregation has a median age over 50, or even over 40, it is in inevitable long term decline, even if the numbers appear stable at the moment. Individuals fading, getting d.a.'ed or d.f.'ed would be just speeding up the process.
So how do we estimate the median age?
If you still attend Kingdom Hall, you could look around and try to estimate the median age of your congregation, which is the theoretical age that exactly half are older than, and half are younger than. There is mostly no need to know or guess anyone's actual age, or work out averages. Just start with your guestimate of the median age, and count those who are above and those who are below it. If the numbers aren't even, adjust your guestimate and count again. (I think it is easier in practice than how it may sound, reading this.)
If estimating the median age as described above seems complicated, you could simply count the ratio of attendees over and under the age of, say, 50. That would still be useful info.
If a significant number of people here were to do that exercise, and report the median age here, I think it should be possible to work out rough but realistic estimates of how many Witnesses there will be in, say, 10 and in 20 years time. If you do choose to respond:
- please respond even if the news is disappointing
- if you can, please indicate your country
- if your congregation is unusually small (or large) please mention that as well.
How about it?
[Edit: missing paragraphs reinserted]