Estimating future growth or decline of Watchtower

by shepherdless 36 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  joe134cd

  Sbf- you write some really thought provoking stuff. Have you ever thought about setting up a blog like JWservey.
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  cookiemaster

  I'm from Romania. Our congregation used to have around 60 members when I was a child. A decade and a half later and it barely has around 25-30 members counting the pioneers sent here from other places. The median age is somewhere between 45 and 50. I think 47 would be the best estimate. There are no JWs in my town. The neighboring towns have a total of 5 JWs. The congregation covers a 30 mile radius.
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  Vidiot

  I have it on very good authority that over the last decade, 9 congregations in the Peace Country area of northern Alberta have been dissolved or consolidated.

  x

  When I left my hometown in central BC some 20-odd years ago, there were 4 KHs serving 8 or 9 congregations.

  Last month I checked, and there are now only 2 KHs serving 4 or 5 congregations.
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  shepherdless

  Hi all, apologies for not getting back to this earlier. I haven't had a chance to even look at this website in the last couple of days.
  
  Thanks for all of the various comments. Some brief comments back, on a few of them:

  DOC - I agree that WTBS seems to be maintaining favorable statistics by making it easier and easier to be a publisher.

  SBF - I was not aware of any of those publications and links. I will read them when I have the chance. They look really useful.

  Ignorance is bliss - yes, you would count all attendees, including babies and toddlers.

  Mephis - I read the Pew report when it came out, but I had not picked up on the median age of JW's in the USA going from 45 to 50 from 2007 to 2014. That is awesome! By comparison, median age in USA overall in 2015 was 37.6.

  I will try to add a few more comments tomorrow.
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  shepherdless

  I have just been looking more deeply into the Pew Report for USA. The figures are not as good as they seem at first blush. The median ages calculated in that report are for adults (those aged 18 or over), not the entire population. According to the report the median age for adults in USA in 2014 was 46 (compared to 37.6 for the entire population in 2015).

  So the Pew Report median age of:

  - 50 yrs in 2014 was really equivalent to a population median of around 41 or 42; and

  - 45 yrs in 2007 was really the equivalent to a population median of around 36 or 37.

  Those numbers in isolation would lead someone to predict continued growth after 2007, and flat growth or very marginal decline after 2014. That is not real news, unfortunately.
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  Vidiot

  shepherdless - "...that WTBS seems to be maintaining favorable statistics by making it easier and easier to be a publisher."

  And a pioneer (via trollies and shorter hour requirements).
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  pepperheart

  hi you dont want anything that is just gut feel what about this then

  All these branch offices have closed down

  ireland

  estonia

  guatemala

  el sal vador

  honduras

  costa rica

  panama

  Since 2016 the watchtower have stopped printing about 50 million magazines a month and made them bimonthly ie watchtower and awake.if you say each copy costs just 2 cents that means the watchtower is saving $1million dollars a month and in another post i have just seen that they are closing the convention hall in sira lanka down and selling it off