Estimating future growth or decline of Watchtower (page 2)

jookbeard

TOH; I wonder how many Polish jw's have actually left their homeland to live and work in other countries of the EU? I don think its that many, in London there are 4 Polish speaking congs at a guess each cong would probably be about 75 publishers each maybe far less, and London has been one of the most popular destinations for Polish migrant workers to settle in recent years probably only topped by Germany, also the town of Peterborough has one of the biggest Polish communities in the UK yet does not have a Polish speaking cong in it at all, has that made much of a dent into the full service report for Poland? More surprising are the amount of Portuguese and Spanish congs in London which seems more than double since I was in.

shepherdless

Hi OldHippie,

you are correct that there are a lot of factors involved. However, they can be dealt with. For example, in relation to Poland, the median age of the Polish population overall is 39.5 years. If i had the median ages for half a dozen Polish congregations, and I combine them, and get an overall median age of, say, 45 years, I know there will be a decline in Poland, irrespective of how many Polish citizens have moved, other factors, etc. I may even be able to estimate a rough rate of decline.

OneEyedJoe

I haven't been in about a year, so I may be a little off, but I'd estimate the median age of my former congregation to be about 45. That may be a little conservative, though - it may be closer to 50. I think there's roughly 90-100 publishers assigned to the congregation with an average sunday attendance around 50-70. This is in the southern US.

I like this approach to estimating the decline. It will at least give us a reasonable estimate on the upper limit of how things will trend for the cult. I definitely agree that it will be a mostly slow decline with no mass exodus (unless something really big happens) and the decline will be mostly driven by the old ones dying off over the next decade or two. The problem, though, is that JWs aren't even keeping up with population growth rates so the decline will be more than what you'd estimate using normal models. To get more accurate you'd have to adjust the life expectancy figure to account for the young ones that leave, but that would be a tough thing to estimate.

DesirousOfChange

I think there is a decline much larger than the numbers published in the Yearbook would even indicate. Remember, they count "publishers" whether they always attend or seldom attend. Whether they are pioneers or "low hour" publishers. They all are counted. There is always a "push" to get irregular pubs to report at least 1 hour (or even 15 min for elderly), as there always is if someone is about to go (or goes) inactive.Thus the 8 million headcount is grossly inflated as to how many are really active, zealous diehard JDubs.

Additionally, many "active" JWs outright lie on their reports. Many here admit to doing just that. Faking it. Many are trapped and have to attend and report hours. (Thanks to you who are in that position and esp the elders that serve as our "double-agents" and leak all the "confidential" info.)

Locally in our area of the US, Kingdom Halls are being closed and congs being merged. First, because of overall shrinking membership & attendance. Second, because of the lack of men who will step up and (or show up) to serve as elders & MS. There are many elder appointments of young guys under 30 years of age. That never used to happen in the past.

WTS can continue to inflate the numbers by having their pep rallys and by juggling the real statistics.

If you really want to see what is happening, attend lunch at the Reg Conv near you this year. Over 1/2 of the auditorium is reserved for Elderly & Infirm. Almost any new "growth" (baptisms) will be that of born-in children too young to make a decision about what they will order from the restaurant menu after the event, let alone pay for it themselves.

Doc

Finkelstein

If the substantial drop in ones getting baptized in US last year is indicative to the decline in the WTS in most modern countries, that could be a good indicator for the rest of the world.

Maybe that's why the WTS is aggressively pining for money these days ....... the Jig is up.

joe134cd

When I was awakening, I was responsible for counting the attendances. I started to count by age. Basically 2/3 of the cong were 40 and over and 1/3 40 and under. With about 3% in the 18-25 year age group. This is in a 1st world westernized country out side the U.S/EUROPE.

Dick Trashy

I've been fading since 2014. Still a servant, still playing the game. I'm waiting for the right time to exit. I know that I'm just 1 of thousands just going because we have to. I've said by the end of this year I'm out no matter.

The JW has 10 years top. The internet will expose them.

Coded Logic

I'm not sure that "median age" will be particularly informative in estimating the potential decline of the WT. I think a much better source would be to look at how quickly the growth rate has declined over the past fifteen years and project that continued reduction into the future.

http://www.jwfacts.com/watchtower/statistics.php

It's also worth noting that the decline isn't just in the lower recruitment. It's also in the fact that what qualifies as a "publisher" has been downgraded to someone who reports as little as fifteen minutes per month. Many of the publishers are JWs purely for social reasons and have little understanding or interest in doctrinal matter - and even less interest in donating funds or performing parts.

Pioneer hours have been reduced. Aux pioneer hours have been reduced. Length of talks have been reduced. Meetings have been reduced. Reading material has been reduced. Studies have been grossly simplified. Baptism is being encouraged younger and younger. Etc.

The WT has been fudging the numbers for some time. And there's not much more they can do at this point to keep cooking the books. The WT already is in decline. It has been for almost a decade now. The real question is how much longer can they hide that fact?

Landy

I've been fading since 2014. Still a servant, still playing the game. I'm waiting for the right time to exit. I know that I'm just 1 of thousands just going because we have to. I've said by the end of this year I'm out no matter.
The JW has 10 years top. The internet will expose them.

And it sounds like you'll still be there in 10 years. Still fading ......

Doubtfully Yours

It is growing tremendously in 3rd world lands, I mean, African continent, the Caribbean islands, etc.

There are personality types that are attracted to the structured life of an Org like the WTBTS. Now, of course, they have the campaign of baptism at a young age and also visiting/recruiting at nursing homes.

The numbers, albeit slowly, will continue to grow.

DY

Estimating future growth or decline of Watchtower

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