Two Doctors Present Local Data from California
by Sea Breeze 35 Replies latest jw friends
-
-
Sea Breeze
These are literal doctors educating and briefing the general public on COVID-19.
They are boots on the ground doctors, not ivory tower appointees enunciating models and philosophies.
They say we should open almost everything immediately & most of us should all get back to work.
Tyson Foods, one of the U.S.’s biggest meat processors, didn’t mince words in a full page New York Times spread that ran Sunday, in which they warned, “the food supply chain is breaking.”
Please, if you are healthy demand to go back to work before a larger crisis gets out of control. We have far more data than we did 6 weeks ago.
-
AndersonsInfo
ACEP-AAEM Joint Statement on Physician Misinformation
The American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) jointly and emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Massihi. These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19. As owners of local urgent care clinics, it appears these two individuals are releasing biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests without regard for the public’s health.
https://www.acep.org/corona/COVID-19/covid-19-articles/acep-aaem-joint-statement-on-physician-misinformation/.
COVID-19 misinformation is widespread and dangerous. Members of ACEP and AAEM are first-hand witnesses to the human toll that COVID-19 is taking on our communities. ACEP and AAEM strongly advise against using any statements of Drs. Erickson and Massihi as a basis for policy and decision making. -
Simon
There are some serious issues with this video. As soon as he makes a major mistake I know I shouldn't pay the rest of it too much attention. Here's the mistake:
He claims that if x % of tested people are infected or not infected, that it equates to the exact same % of people in the greater population being infected.
This is fallacious reasoning.
If the people tested were selected completely at random, it may be valid. But they are not. The people tested are those who suspect they have been exposed to the virus or have symptoms, so they are are more likely to test positive than someone picked at random.
Everything else based off that premise of what that figure tells you is faulty thinking.
If 20% of people you test who have symptoms of the virus have it, that doesn't mean than 20% of the population has it.
Edited to add: seems like people are already on this, so anytime anyone posts this video please pass along this link which debunks it:
https://theprepared.com/blog/dr-ericksons-viral-covid-19-briefing-video-is-dangerously-wrong/
-
BoogerMan
Just watched these two doctors present what appears to be verifiable data and statistics from health authorities in the U.S.A. So why are these doctors in the video being pilloried for presenting official data to prove their case? I find it sinister that disagreeing with the official Covid 19 narrative is almost on a par with holocaust denial to some people. Open debate is needed when opinions differ - then the truth can be found.
The word misinformation is now being used like the term conspiracy theory, as an ad hominem attack - not the way to go. I'll wait and see.
-
Simon
BTW: This is an example where you don't need to be an expert to recognize that "the experts" might be wrong about something. You can always use simple logical reasoning to decide if what they are saying makes sense or not. People can have knowledge and skills in one area, but be totally clueless about statistics, sampling and basic maths.
-
Simon
So why are these doctors in the video being pilloried for presenting official data to prove their case?
Because they are misusing the data to come to a false and misleading conclusion. Read the article I linked above which explains it better than I did.
The word misinformation is now being used like the term conspiracy theory, as an ad hominem attack - not the way to go. I'll wait and see.
No, misinformation doesn't imply any conspiracy theory. It's more likely they are sincere, but just incorrect because their skills are in a different area of expertise - medicine, not math.
-
BoogerMan
With all due respect, I think if I had a disease, I'd rather trust an experienced physician than a mathematician.
These two doctors are discussing something they clearly understand and know a lot about.
-
Simon
With all due respect, I think if I had a disease, I'd rather trust an experienced physician than a mathematician.
Then you have completely missed the important part of the discussion.
No one is questioning the "medicine" part, but they are very wrong about an important assumption todo with the mathematics of how many are thus infected, and drawing a very misleading conclusion from it.
Changing your statement may help make your mistake clearer:
If you had a math / sampling question, would you ask a mathematician or an ER doctor?
-
Sea Breeze
Deaths can be calculated, even if many deaths are attributed to the virus when in fact they may have died of other complications. Notwithstanding, the doctors findings aren't out of line with other studies:
1) Stanford's antibody study shows 50 - 85 times more COVID-19 cases exist in Santa Clara; fatality rate would be 50 - 85 times LESS.
2) USC & LA County Public health antibody study shows nearly 50 times the amount of cases than "official cases"; 50 times LESS deadly.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
Dr. Erikson's data of 6% infection rate of the population is right in-line with the above California studies.
3) New York City shows 21% of the population already has COVID-19 antibodies or 13 times the amount of cases; 13 time LESS deadly.
https://www.livescience.com/covid-antibody-test-results-new-york-test.html
A German antibody survey was the first out of the gate several weeks ago. At a press conference on 9 April, virologist Hendrik Streeck from the University of Bonn announced preliminary results from a town of about 12,500 in Heinsberg, a region in Germany that had been hit hard by COVID-19. He told reporters his team had found antibodies to the virus in 14% of the 500 people tested. By comparing that number with the recorded deaths in the town, the study suggested the virus kills only 0.37% of the people infected. (The rate for seasonal influenza is about 0.1%.) The team concluded in a two-page summary that “15% of the population can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the process of reaching herd immunity is already underway.” They recommended that politicians start to lift some of the regions’ restrictions.