Watchtower Organisation - it's all over, bar the shouting

by slimboyfat 199 Replies latest members campaign

• 

  notsurewheretogo

  Every printing and publishing company has lost money and stocks etc due to the changing nature of the print industry, of which I work in.

  Still doesn't detract that they have billions in the bank, have regular contributions coming in from the change they made to abolish mortgages to the society and are growing in numbers.

  Once Warwick and Chelmsford are complete these places will operate at a fraction of the cost of Brooklyn/Ridgeway.

  Like all printing companies they are reducing their costs, they stopped DO's, they turfed out bethel boys and have stopped a lot of special pioneering. Bethels are closing down etc...all of this negates the costs you mention.

  They will get to the point where their costs are manageable and they will survive of that I am in no doubt.

  For sure it is changing and indeed a slow decline for them but it will be decades if not more that they ever disappear...I think lack of money will not be their downfall but time will be as it will destroy their doctrines and legacy.

  And even if they get short of cash they can recite scriptures where the God's people gleefully donated in help of a certain project etc...if the GB made a specific call to the dubs for cash to help them survive the dubs would do it...they are the lifeblood of the organsation.
• 

  shepherdless

  Just my 2 cents.

  it wouldn't surprise me if Watchtower was spending close to a Billion $ p.a. In addition to the nearly quarter billion they spend on missionaries, special pioneers and travelling overseers, it is pretty clear from another threads that they are spending about $100 million p.a. on IT, and that figure will be hard to reduce.

  Also, that CO said that they were subsidising that branch for $6 million p.a. If that is the case, then you can bet most of the branches in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa are being subsidised as well.

  I don't think collapse is imminent, but I do think financial issues are bigger than their membership issues at the moment.
• 

  Magnum

  I agree. I believe I’m one of the few who think the org could crash relatively soon. Some time ago on this forum I mentioned a situation I’ve unfortunately witnessed a number of times and am all too familiar with – the deaths of animals, especially cats. I’ve had to watch many of them die.

  Many organs and systems in the body are tied together and when an organism is sick or injured, one or more those organs and/or systems is often not functioning properly. Many are tied together, some in feedback loops, such that the improper functioning of one causes disruptions in the normal operations of others. If the situation is not corrected, often the organism reaches a point of no return – a downward spiral from which there is no recovery.

  I’ve observed it many times with cats. I’ve seen that point from which death is virtually inevitable. Body temperature drops, organs and systems start to fail and shut down, and then death comes fairly quickly. I think something similar is going to happen with JWdom. There are many interconnecting factors that tie together as in feedback loops. What are some of those factors?

  • Doctrine. JWs have lost in the doctrinal arena. They have a documented history of failure in their predictions – a number of them pre-WWII and then 1975, 1994, 2000. They run from doctrinal discussions now. The days of Franz-like deep prophetic and doctrinal discussions are over.

  • Growth (discussed in comments above)

  • Apathy

  • Slow-down or halt in construction

  • Lack of men suitable for appointment (as discussed above)

  • Drastic reduction in and perhaps future complete termination of printed material (as discussed in OP)

  • Lower caliber & quality of individual JWs. Fewer deep thinkers and intellectuals than a few decades ago. More social misfits, losers, etc.

  • Exposure on internet (history, prediction failures, doctrine, lawsuits, scandals, etc.)

  • Finances

  • Termination of missionary and DO arrangement

  Consider the situation in The Emperor’s New Clothes. Everybody sensed something was wrong (that the emperor was actually naked), but each was scared to speak up thinking he or she was the only one who noticed it and not wanting to be different. All it took was for a child to finally cry out that the emperor had no clothes, and the others realized they were right, that they weren’t the only ones who realized the emperor was naked.

  I think that a number of JWs somewhere in their minds sense that something is wrong, but they try to suppress those feelings and they fear saying something about them to others. I believe there might come a point, though, when a few finally do speak up and that might start a snowball effect with others joining in.

  Some say that JWdom could become like other groups who once thrived, but still survive as small, insignificant groups. The overall JW doctrine, however, does not allow for a slowdown/decrease. In the last of the last days, JWdom is supposed to be increasing and giving a great, loud Jericho-style shout, not shrinking and retreating. With the leveling off of growth and possible coming decline, the weakening preaching work, the KH sell-offs, etc., some could start talking.

  In one sense, I believe that JWdom has already crashed. It’s not what it used to be. It used to be zealous, bold, confident, confrontational and forward moving. Now it runs from confrontation and is just trying to survive. However, I still believe there could be a total collapse.

  It’s interesting to watch.
  
• 

  compound complex

  If the situation is not corrected, often the organism reaches a point of no return – a downward spiral from which there is no recovery. -- Magnum

  There's so much to think about, matters about which my head-in-the-clouds poet self would not see sans prompting; your mention of "feedback loops" -- a concept new to me -- perfectly illustrates what is happening to Goliath, who, in this situation, seems to be dropping to his knees in a rather protracted, but sure, slow motion. When, then, the killing blow to the head?

  Thanks, too, SBF, for your excellent posts and in-depth, intelligent analyses.

  CC
  
  
• 

  LoveUniHateExams

  Good post, Shepherdless.

  And just to add some background details: we also have to factor in the millions of dollars/pounds WT are losing in courts over the paedo problem.

  I hope you die, WT, you bastards!

  (Sorry but that's just the way I feel.)
  
• 

  LV101

  Good analogy, Magnum. It's intriguing knowing their history of survival success over the decades. Free everything handed to them it seems hard to believe they'd ever crash but like many inheritances poor investments are made and heirs are back to basics.

  It's very interesting to hear about and watch. We'd all pay a huge price to have a ring-side seat but at this point need as much verifiable info as possible. Thankfully we have this incredible site and if nothing else, the ole cult is entertaining.

  A couple of yrs. ago when they retooled and jw.org was born seemed they were back alive with business survival techniques -- I know I gave up on their collapsing any time soon. They were dancing and singing how happy they were - ay yi y -- and appeared as if their oxygen level was good. Looks like their plan of action didn't solve all issues thus we'll hope in the "organs and/or systems" cat failure as it truly is an animal - beast! It won't be one aspect of business failure but many to bring it down. Slow and steady is good -- more interesting as much as I'd prefer a devastating collapse.
• 

  nowwhat?

  They have "fallen!" They just don't know it yet
• 

  Doubting Bro

  Magnum,

  I think you make some interesting points, especially as it relates to the issues the WT faces. In my opinion, their number 1 issue that they need to address but don't seem to know how is APATHY. The majority of their problems stem from apathy. Low retention, low converts and lack of a pipeline for leadership are 100% related to apathy.

  There will always be some super zealous JWs but the number of those relative to the number of apathetic ones (which there were always some of those in every crowd) is much lower than it used to be. The average JW elder goes through the motions. The average JW pioneer does as well. And those are the "exemplary" ones.

  When I was a kid, during the WT study there would always be 10 hands shooting up on every question, now 2 maybe 3 at most. Singing was loud, now mumbling. Meeting attendance was higher with more meetings!

  If the religion had a truly enthusiastic base, number of converts wouldn't matter. JWs for the most part, look at the religion as a lifestyle, social club which would be fine except the lifestyle sucks thus apathy. If they really want to hold on to what they have, they would change their approach and create more social opportunities, charity work, etc. The problem is their doctrine doesn't allow for it which puts them in a bad spot.

  In my opinion doctrine is the least important thing. Yeah,the doctrine makes no sense but that doesn't really matter. It changes so frequently that most members don't care about doctrine. So, they could eliminate that obstacle if they chose to. I think the GB for the most part still believes in their doctrine although they know some things are not right (1914, generation, etc). They just are waiting for a "flash of light" or someone with a creative bone in their bodies ala Freddy Franz to give them some new ideas.

  They could figure out a way to spin a decrease and have actually started doing that. The bunker video from last year's RC showed less and less people at the KH. They could continue to downsize, move meetings to a few larger assembly halls, sell off local KHs, use the internet more, cease printing and go 100% digital. I could run this religion out of my house with volunteers doing the same out of their houses. That's why I think their fate will be more of the Bible Student's fate as opposed to a sudden collapse.

  Agree it will be interesting.
• 

  nicolaou

  Take a poke around the exjw subreddit and it will soon become apparent how masses of young JWs feel about the organisation and their place within it.

  They call themselves PIMO; 'Physically In, Mentally Out'. The game is pretty much up for a generation who've grown up on Google & Facebook.

  Sure, pressure may have gotten them baptised but they're heading for the exit the moment they leave home - with a middle digit extended to the Kingdom Hall.

  Nice topic Slim'
• 

  slimboyfat

  And even if they get short of cash they can recite scriptures where the God's people gleefully donated in help of a certain project etc...if the GB made a specific call to the dubs for cash to help them survive the dubs would do it...

  Isn't that exactly what happened in May 2015? And we know how much contributions went up - 15% for a few months only. Not exactly an impressive response. That's why the cutbacks were announced in the autumn of 2015.

  I'm going to start another thread specifically to gather evidence that JWs have serious financial problems. Because I'm not sure if those who disagree do so in spite of the evidence, or because they are not aware of the evidence.