Preliminary US service report for 2004 - based on KM figures (0% increase)

by truthseeker 28 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  truthseeker

  Below are prelimiary figures for the 2004 service year, based on numbers given in the "Our Kingdom Ministry" magazine.

  Publishers

  (inc. Pioneers) Baptized

  September 2003 981,784 1,737

  October 2003 989,636 2,650

  November 2003 981,909 2,714

  December 2003 991,443 1,810

  January 2004 997,742 1,798

  February 2004 1,001,560 1,463

  March 2004 984,608 1,827

  April 2004 1,007,774 2,583

  May 2004 991,779 2,580

  June 2004 971,110 3,253

  July 2004 994,664 5,536

  August 2004 1,019,696 (Peak) 2,624

  AVERAGES Publishers Baptized

  2004 Service Year 992,808 30,575

  2003 Service Year 988,236 30,401

  The results are as follows:

  For the 2004 service year, there was a 0.46% increase in the number of publishers. This will show up as a 0% increase when the official 2004 service year figures are published in the Feb 1st, 2005 Watchtower.

  For the 2003 service year, there was a 2.0% increase in the number of publishers.

  What is notable is that the peak figure of publishers for 2004 is 1,019,696. The peak figure for 2003 is 1,029,652. The peak has declined by 10,000.

  Baptisms were a fraction higher up on last year, but only by 174.

  As the United States is not religiously homogenous, high baptisms will usually hover around the 30,000 number.

  There is clear evidence that the 15 minute rule for certain publishers, has exhausted its effectiveness, and that growth in the United States once again, faces decline.
• 

  Pole

  Thanks for this info. It will be interesting to see whether they put together the partial results as reported by KM to get exactly the same results as you got.
  
  
  What I'm really looking forward to is the 2005 annual report - the first one I'm not going to conrtibute to. :)).
  
  Pole - of the "no longer a publisher" class
• 

  Happy Guy :)

  I am not sure why anyone would expect internal numbers to be reliable. I think the WT puts out the information it wants it's readers to think regardless of any truth or honesty of the information itself.
• 

  FairMind

  Yes, they certainly put the best spin on things that they can. I think they have to be careful though as many in the congregaions have noted the collapsing together of cogregations and the diminishing numbers who show up for field service.

  FM
• 

  JustTickledPink

  I know all the time I pioneered I never had even 1 successful convert... most of the baptisms were JW's kids that got baptized.... not new converts.

  I wish they would publish the numbers of actual new people off the street, instead of hey we had 30,000 babies born this year and they will all end up being baptized and then we will count them as new Jw's.

  I was baptized at 11 yoa, yeah.... I knew exactly what I was doing.
• 

  M.J.

  Just wondering. Is there a significance to the service year beginning/ending in September?

  So with 30K new baptisms and overall publisher numbers remaining flat, it would suggest that around 30K either died or became inactive (DF'd, DA'd, faded) wouldn't it? Perhaps I'm not fully informed of all the terms here. So with the annual death rate at around 0.85 % in the US, that would suggest that almost all that 30K loss would be from inactivity/disassociation.
• 

  jws

  So with 30K new baptisms and overall publisher numbers remaining flat, it would suggest that around 30K either died or became inactive (DF'd, DA'd, faded) wouldn't it?

  You don't have to be baptised to be a publisher and no doubt most of those were counting time before getting baptised. So, baptisms and publishers are kind of unrelated.

  But, new little JWs are being born all the time and at some point in their young lives, they usually start counting time. If there is a large population of JWs moving into the 8-12 year old range, but the numbers are still flat, that means a lot also died or fell away.

  Like somebody said, it'd be interesting to see whether the monthly totals add up to the yearly. Though, aren't there cases where time may be late in arriving for the monthly totals, but can end up in the yearly totals?

  0% growth is bad. The spin will probably be that the work is nearing completion and all the sheep have been found. But meanwhile, expect there to be some heads rolling when the CO or DO visits. Expect more talks concentrating of field service.

  Maybe the true story lies in the exposing of the JWs to criticisms over <insert issue here>. People have increased access to the internet. TV programs have highlighted problems. And, the further we get away from new millenium madness and tragedies like 9-11, the less scared people are that the world is about to end. As we settle into this century and if we stay free of terrorist attacks, the more they're going to lose.
• 

  jt stumbler

  They'll probably say that the narrow and cramped road is full! Or something to justify this non increase.
• 

  RunningMan

  Yep, the end must be pretty close, since the work appears to be nearing completion.
• 

  willyloman

  Is there a significance to the service year beginning/ending in September?

  That's when time began, according to WTS. That's why they expected to see the end of the system in Sept/Oct 1975. The Jewish calendar began with a month that started during that period (Sept/Oct, not 1975) At least, that's how I remember it. Don't have access to CD Rom at the moment.

  As for the topic: These numbers are interesting. Keep in mind they include the "15 minute publishers" which is reportedly at least 2% or more of the total. They also include the Spanish congos in the U.S., which in many southern and western states, are exploding because of immigration. The numbers suggest the "average" U.S. congregation must be losing attendance and baptizing new ones in ever smaller numbers... and that's exactly what most of us see in our areas. There is no question there is a decline where I live, and I believe my experience is common. Just one indicator: The circuit assembly had the same or smaller attendance the last time I went (just over a year ago) than it did when I first moved to this area nearly 10 years ago. And there was no change in assigned congregations that would account for that. Attendance was something like 1,900 and it slipped to 1,500 over several years. And this in one of the fastest growing counties in the U.S. according to population figures. Based on local newspaper accounts, the population of this area increased more than 8% a year in that time period. The 1,900 dubs at the assembly in the mid-to-late 90's should logically have grown to well over 3,000 if they were just keeping pace with the population. Also, at the last several assemblies, the number being baptized was in single digits, and almost all of them children.