TruthSeeker,
I was going to point out that August is always the highest month and that September is always one of the worst months for publisher numbers, but I see that you have figured that out already.
However, before you get carried away with the 30,000 drop off in publishers this year, do realise that this is actually a smaller drop than between August and September in the previous two years, as the statistics you provided shows.
Why is August always the month with peak publishers? This is one of the biggest mysteries in life, I feel. Lots' of answers have been suggested, but none of them fully satisfactory, in my view.
Back in the good old days when western developed countires experienced regularly, 5% growth or thereabouts, then I could understand that August would have the peak publisher number simply by virtue of the fact that it is the last month in the service year, and the numbers were always rising steadily month on month. But what about now when there is very little growth? Why does the peak still always come in August? Possible explanation:
1. Inactive ones have been geared up to go on the ministry again after the summer convention.
2. This is the last month for pioneers to get their hours in, and their increased activity (read: frantic meeting of quotas) boosts the turn out of other publishers with whom they go on the ministry.
3. Lot's of people on holiday in July forget to put in their report and put intwo reports in August instead, thus skewing the numbers since they are counted twince in the same month. (this could be tested out by looking at the Australian figures, since their summer holiday is, of course, in December). - this solution was originally suggested, as far as I know, by Singelenberg in his article about the Dutch reaction among witnesses to the 1975 disappointment.
4. Elders are encouraged through the KM to get everyone to put in a report for August especially. (this did happen once two years ago, but it does not happen every year, and cannot therefore explain why August consistently contains the peak publisher number)
Has anyone got any other explanations or views on which explanation I have given is most satisfying?
