by Bluegrass Tom 33 Replies latest watchtower scandals
I'm disagreeing with Buster. The turnover is quite high. My calculations for the USA only would indicate that on the average about 57% of the increases in publishers due to baptisms are lost (in addition to the losses due to death) because of other reasons (fading, DF, DA or just plain inactivity). The yearly average growth for the USA appears to net-out at 1.1% for the 1993 - 2002 time period.
FM
No, no, nope. Everyone that disagrees with me is wrong.
Fairmind, I'm not positive what you disagree with, the math that leads to about a 3% turnover, or my sense that the 3% seems low.
But let me say again, that in an average-sized congregation, in any one year, the loss of about three people (congregation of about 100) seems lower than I would expect. All it would take, in a whole year, is one couple and some teenager that decide that the JW life was not for them - does that sound like a lot to you?
You also have to consider that according to the society 1/3rd of all people who DA, are DF'd or fade away rejoint the JW's again at some point in their lives. My aunt rejoined after being inactive for nearly 20 years.
That is interesting.
So, how many people that leave, return? ... after 5 years? ... 10 years?
Joker10
top 19 countries of the world also make up most of population of the planet-- China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Japan, Mexico, Philippines, Germany, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Ethiopia, and Thailand.
The controlling countries in Tom's meta-analysis are not the top (most populous) countries in the world; they ate the 19 largest national polulations of Dubbies. Argentina, Britain, Canada, Columbia, Congo, Dem. Rep of, France, Italy, Japan, Poland, Spain, Ukraine and Zambia are not in the top 19 most populous contries.
If you look at another example (okay, the first one I found), the RC Church in Ireland, you see a 27% decline in attendence 1990-1999. That's 3% per year, raw. Add in a 1% death-rate and a 0.5% increase in population and you get a 2.5% annual decrease.
It would seem that as many Irish people grew disillusioned with organised religion each year as Witnesses cease being active for whatever reason.
Just as well Dubbies know it is the troof.
I agree with some that state that the hours and publisher numbers are skewed.
In our rural congregation, esp in winter, I never saw an honest hour of service reported.! Most days would begin with 'starting our time' at an old 'not at home', or a house or two in territory near the hall. Then we would drive helter-skelter all over the territory in the county to make a rv here and there, mostly they were not at home anyway. Combine that fact with six or eight of us crammed into a mini-van, and suddenly you had 6 persons X 3 hours = 18 hours. Persons witnessed to - sometimes none. But we had extinguished the guilt for another week!
Also - most witnesses make sure the kids report some time every month - so they drag the kids out every Saturday or two for the morning - they all report 3 hours apeice - talk to virtually no one that listens to them - but they 'place' a lot of lit - cause they are 'cute' - all dressed up like little preachers. So this 'time' is counted - but can hardly be called effective witnessing about the faith of JW's - but then most of the adult witnessing is mo better is it? Very few witnesses ever witness about anything - just place some mags and go home. Reporting time is that whole thing - if u want to keep the privilages!!!
Just My Opinion
Jeff
I don't know about the kids though, I'd say they are QUITE effective. It's harder for grownups to be dishonest around them in their field service practices. Their presence stops householders from being violent at times. Also, considering how dangerous the literature can be ANY way the society can get into someone's hands can draw converts. Knorr knew what he was doing back when he required children to go door knocking in the 50's.
As for how many return. Well the easy answer is that out of the 1.2 million that leave 400,000 return. Why do they do it? Well you have to look at why they leave in the first place.
Consider this scenario. A young brother and sister both raised in the Truth have the hots for each other. Since they are not allowed to date until they are ready for marriage they start courting right out of high school and get married in their late teens. 2 years later the they both realise that they rushed things WAY too quickly. she has an affair, gets DF'd, divorced, and rejoins as soon as the brother has left town out of embarrassment.
I saw this one play out quite a few times in my old hall.
Another common scenario is this, a young man comes of age, decides he doesn't want anything to do with the truth, and fades away becomming inactive. Years later his faithful JW mother dies of a long bout with cancer. He doesn't really beleive in the org, but he's grief stricken and feels that there may be a slight chance that he can still see her in the new order. He goes to his local Kingdom Hall and starts studying again becomming an active publisher.
The third, and probably most common scenario is that a young woman leaves the org, develops a rebelious streak, and gets into the worst possible trappings of the world. Drugs, crime, casual sex, witchcraft (How many former JW's do you know that are self proclaimed witches, warlocks, and satanists?), and all the people that go along with it. Inevibitably she gets burned by an unwanted pregnancy, arrest, ripoff, overdose etc. Instead of blaming her own stupid actions she blames it all on her decision to leave the org and goes back.
Leaving or getting kicked out of the org doesn't mean that you've severed all ties. The sad truth is that many people, including some of the people on this site, will one day go back for reasons they can't even fathom. We have to apply the same guard against the org that we used to apply against the world back when.
What about the Baptized ones? WT does NOT tell us the number of Home bible studies- JW's kids, the Number of the Baptized puplishers, and the disfellowshiped ones or innactive. So we can't have an accurate number
Buster, what I was saying is that aside from losses due to death, over half of the yearly increase due to new baptized ones is offset by those who leave the organization or become inactive. So yes the turnover is low but on both sides, increases and decreases.
FM
OK, kiddies, before we stoop to fistfights, here are the death rates for the profiled countries:
| Counrty | Death rate per 1000 | Notes |
| Argentina | 7.57 | |
| Brazil | 9.32 | |
| Britain | 10.3 | (UK) |
| Canada | 7.54 | |
| Columbia | 5.66 | |
| Congo | 15.5 | (Two countries, Congo) |
| France | 9.04 | |
| Germany | 10.36 | |
| Italy | 10.13 | |
| Japan | 8.53 | |
| Mexico | 4.99 | |
| Nigeria | 14.1 | |
| Philippines | 5.95 | |
| Poland | 9.97 | |
| Russia | 13.91 | |
| Spain | 9.22 | |
| Ukraine | 16.4 | |
| USA | 8.7 | |
| Zambia | 21.89 | |
| Average | 10.48 | |
| World Average Death Rate per 1000 people for all 258 countries: ( 2085.14 / 258 = 8.08 ) | ||
| www.phrasebase.com | ||
