Imo only baptized and death should be considered,
find out how many were baptized jw by 1993, lets say, add the number of baptized every year until 2003
estimate how many should be dead by 2003 .
the reason for not considering the number of publisher is because
a new publishers does not need to be baptized BUT usually does within months, or become inactive. There is no way, imo, to calculate the number of publisher that never get baptized.
By only counting baptized jw you deal with confirmed net results on a yearly basis.
Can anyone do the math?