Curious. What was your local Memorial attendance like tonight?
Balaamsass2
JoinedPosts by Balaamsass2
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Memorial attendance
by Balaamsass2 incurious.
what was your local memorial attendance like tonight?
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95
Trump Tariffs started today, Some Countries Caved in early morning.
by liam inusa politicians in charge of the economy for the past 50 years were too stupid to understand how the economy works.
this just proves my theory, that an education on the top tier universities just sucks and means nothing in the real world, unless its in the stem education.
for 50 years usa had zero tariffs on other countries.
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Balaamsass2
Today:
Economic Outlook Dives Just Three Months Into Trump’s Term
Probability of a recession leapt while growth outlook slumped, survey of economists finds
April 12, 2025 9:00 pm ET
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-economic-outlook-trump-b4e3469a?st=e8uyRj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
President Trump is pushing his trade policies further than almost anyone imagined three months ago. PHOTO: ANDREW HARNIK/GETTY IMAGESWhat a difference three months makes.
Since President Trump took office, economists have dramatically slashed estimates for growth while raising them for inflation and unemployment.
The main reason, according to respondents to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of economists: tariffs.
When the Journal last surveyed economists, from Jan. 10 to 14, they were unsure about many aspects of Trump’s policies, including tariffs, immigration restrictions and tax cuts. But they had to weigh that uncertainty against an economy that had consistently outperformed expectations.
The shift in economists’ outlook reflects that Trump is pushing his trade policies further than almost anyone imagined three months ago.
The survey gathered responses from 64 academic and business economists from April 4 to 8. That was after Trump announced a baseline duty of 10% on imports and larger, “reciprocal” tariffs on countries on April 2, which the president dubbed Liberation Day. The responses predate Trump’s announcement on April 9 of a 90-day suspension in the reciprocal tariffs while retaining the 10% baseline tariff and ratcheting duties up to 145% on China, which has retaliated, and a subsequent exemption for electronic products from China tariffs.
GDP after inflation (quarterly, annualized growth rate)Source: Wall Street Journal surveys of economistsQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025Q1 202600.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.75%Apr. '25 forecastJan. '25 forecastOct. '24 forecastEconomists expect U.S. gross domestic product after inflation to expand just 0.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to the survey’s average estimate. That is down from a forecast of 2% GDP growth in January. If accurate, it would make this year the economy’s worst since 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic caused a brief but deep downturn. Economists expect 1.8% GDP growth in 2026.
They also increased their estimated probability of recession in the next 12 months to 45%, up from 22% in January.
Probability the U.S. is in a recession in next 12 months including todaySource: Wall Street Journal surveys of economistsNote: Average of economists' answers. Gaps indicate question not asked or data unavailable.RECESSION50%2006'10'15'20'250102030405060708090100%“We’re dancing with recession,” said Joseph Davis, chief economist at Vanguard.
Stocks have sold off and bond yields have risen since April 2 in response to the trade war. The University of Michigan said Friday that its survey of consumer sentiment plunged to one of the lowest readings in a decade and that household inflation expectations reached their highest since the early 1980s.
Forecasting the economy always involves a fair amount of guesswork. The last time the Journal’s survey showed economists putting this high a probability on recession—during much of 2022 and 2023—they were dead wrong.
But uncertainty is especially high in the current moment because of Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs, which aim to rapidly reconfigure complex global supply chains that have been decades in the making.
No one—including, apparently, Trump himself—knows the final outcome. Top aides including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have for months reassured Wall Street that tariffs are intended to give the U.S. leverage in negotiations with trading partners. Trump himself suggested his tariffs weren’t going to change before pausing the tariffs on Wednesday and then telling reporters Thursday that higher tariffs could come back if trade deals aren’t reached.
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PreviewSubscribeReflecting that unpredictability, economists’ estimates for 2025 GDP growth spanned an unusually wide range.
Amy Crews Cutts projected a 2% contraction based on plummeting consumer and business sentiment and evidence from her clients that tariffs are already causing supply-chain problems. But James F. Smith of EconForecaster is forecasting 3.1% growth on the assumption Trump will quickly roll back any tariffs because they are “so outrageous.”
“It’s looking like brilliant diplomacy,” Smith said. “In the short run, I’d be very surprised to learn that most of the companies with critical supply chains don’t have big inventories in warehouses around the U.S.”
Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton, economists at California Lutheran University whose growth estimate was in line with the 0.8% average, said their forecast assumes “that Liberation Day tariff rates will be negotiated down significantly.”
Overall, economists projected the average U.S. tariff rate will rise about 19 percentage points in 2025. In January, they had assumed a 10-point increase. The average effective tariff last year was around 2.4%, according to the Tax Foundation.
Economists expect Trump’s new levies to subtract 1.2 percentage points from 2025 GDP growth and add 1.1 percentage points to inflation.
As a result, economists now see consumer prices rising 3.6% in December 2025 from a year earlier, up from 2.7% in January. The forecast for 2026 remained little changed at 2.6%, suggesting tariffs are expected to cause a one-off rise in the price level rather than sustained inflation.
Consumer-price index, year-over-year percentage change (actual and forecasts)Sources: Labor Department (actual); Wall Street Journal surveys of economists (forecasts)2023'24'25'26'271.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0%ActualApr. '25 forecastJan. '25 forecastOct. '24 forecastIn the past two recessions, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero. But because most economists and policymakers expect Trump’s tariffs to push up prices—at least in the short run—the prospects for Fed rate cuts are clouded. The median economist in the Journal’s survey expects two quarter-point rate cuts by December and two more in 2026, leaving the benchmark federal-funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% by the end of next year.
Economists also raised their average forecast for the year-end unemployment rate to 4.7% from 4.3% in January, then falling to 4.6% by the end of 2026.
Back in January, economist Mike Cosgrove of The Econoclast anticipated no impact on growth from Trump’s tariffs, which he saw as a negotiating tool. Now, he thinks the U.S. will be lucky to skirt a recession.
“It’s a huge shock to the whole global economy,” Cosgrove said, adding that Trump should have given businesses more time to adjust. “I totally support President Trump in his effort to level the playing field, but I don’t support how he has gone about that.”
Economists have been whiplashed by the big swings in tariff policy in recent weeks. Upon seeing the “reciprocal” tariffs take effect on April 9, economists at Goldman Sachs raised their estimated recession probability to 65% from 45% and slashed their GDP forecast—only to revert to previous projections after Trump announced the 90-day pause.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
How closely does your outlook on the economy align with the panel’s? Join the conversation below.
The president, the Journal has reported, has privately acknowledged that tariffs could trigger a recession but has said he didn’t want to cause a depression.
Like tit-for-tat trade wars, though, recessions can evolve unpredictably, with feedback mechanisms that exacerbate the deteriorations in sentiment, spending, hiring and investment. That is why policymakers will typically spare no effort to avoid them.
“It’s hard to get people’s confidence back,” Cutts said."
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Can someone remind me the reason's you could be disfellowshipped?
by SydBarrett inthe only reasons i can remember are smoking, sexual immorality and of course, apostasy.
there must be others but having been out since 1990, i'm drawing a blank.
i was thinking perhaps serious criminal offenses that result in prison, but then i remembered a brother in my congregation in the 1980's who went to prison.
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Balaamsass2
It really does depend on your connections, popularity, and ability to lie.
I have seen family members of popular elders get away with everything...and anything, serial theft, serial fraud, and serial fornication..
Bluntly honest or cranky single sisters get disfellowshiped for minor infractions.
I have seen serial child molesters skate and appointed elders and giving convention parts in 3 years. Twice in my area. A murderer once. Never underestimate the power of ass kissing and green handshakes. Nothing spirit-directed or godly about the Borg.
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Can someone remind me the reason's you could be disfellowshipped?
by SydBarrett inthe only reasons i can remember are smoking, sexual immorality and of course, apostasy.
there must be others but having been out since 1990, i'm drawing a blank.
i was thinking perhaps serious criminal offenses that result in prison, but then i remembered a brother in my congregation in the 1980's who went to prison.
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Balaamsass2
ANYTHING three window washers agree on....especially if they don't like you.
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What is really Babylon the great?
by Halcon infor believers of god and christ, it seems that it should be obvious that babylon the great of revelation should be all religions and spiritual practices associated with the one true enemy of christ...the devil, satan, the snake etc.
essentially any group or individual practicing and promoting witchcraft, sorcery, devil worshipping etc.
all things practiced in ancient babylon (the nation presumably used as the model for the one in revelation).. or is this too simple of an explanation?.
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Balaamsass2
A fever dream of an old man on a prison island. No second witness to any of his prophetic dreams. Per Watchtower..never happened.
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95
Trump Tariffs started today, Some Countries Caved in early morning.
by liam inusa politicians in charge of the economy for the past 50 years were too stupid to understand how the economy works.
this just proves my theory, that an education on the top tier universities just sucks and means nothing in the real world, unless its in the stem education.
for 50 years usa had zero tariffs on other countries.
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Balaamsass2
Looks like another predictably unpredictable week.
Gold has been reaching new highs. I have to chuckle when I think back to our old next-door neighbor, the cheerful garbage man. He got off work early afternoons everyday. He would change, put his metal detector over his shoulder, and take his two noisy mutts for a walk for a couple of hours. He always waved and had a big smile. He always lived below his means and slowly remodeled his mid-century modern house. Over a beer one afternoon he showed me the results of his dog walking.. a mason jar of gold nuggets worth thousands. The result of his methodical metal detecting every day while walking the dogs. lol No white knuckles, no brokerage fees, taxes, or management fees. :)
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95
Trump Tariffs started today, Some Countries Caved in early morning.
by liam inusa politicians in charge of the economy for the past 50 years were too stupid to understand how the economy works.
this just proves my theory, that an education on the top tier universities just sucks and means nothing in the real world, unless its in the stem education.
for 50 years usa had zero tariffs on other countries.
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Balaamsass2
4/11/25 lunch update.
"
Consumer Sentiment Plunges on Recession Fears; China Hits Back Again on Tariffs
Gold prices scale new highs, while Treasury selloff extends
Last Updated:
April 11, 2025 at 12:02 PM EDT
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-11-25
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95
Trump Tariffs started today, Some Countries Caved in early morning.
by liam inusa politicians in charge of the economy for the past 50 years were too stupid to understand how the economy works.
this just proves my theory, that an education on the top tier universities just sucks and means nothing in the real world, unless its in the stem education.
for 50 years usa had zero tariffs on other countries.
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Balaamsass2
4/10/2025. Markets are swinging back and forth, hanging on Trump's every tweet and press release. Oh well, the WSJ has a story on Navarro that might give some insight into the decision-making process. : "
"Trump’s Tariff Man Peter Navarro Is Down but Not Out
Musk calls trade hawk a ‘moron,’ but president values his loyalty and hard-line stances"
"WASHINGTON—Wall Street loathes him. His policy prescriptions give Republican lawmakers heartburn. Elon Musk thinks he’s a moron.
And after President Trump paused many new tariffs on Wednesday, the man he calls “my Peter” may be down. But he’s not out.
Apart from Trump, no one is more associated with the tariffs rocking the globe than Peter Navarro, the scrappy trade hawk who helped design the much-maligned formula for Trump’s reciprocal levies. He has Trump’s ear and his loyalty: As the president privately reminded a group in the Oval Office recently, Navarro went to jail for him.
Navarro, 75 years old, has been an unflagging influence as markets convulse and recession fears grow, helping craft Trump’s tariff policy and protect it against moderating voices in the administration. A former college professor and California Democrat plucked from obscurity to advise the 2016 campaign on China, Navarro’s view has held sway with the president for years.
“Peter has endured because he believes the same things the president does—that America is a country worth saving, that the American worker is the finest in the world and that the globalists are both wrong and evil,” said Steve Bannon, the Trump ally and economic populist. Bannon called criticism of Navarro “really veiled attacks on President Trump.”
Navarro’s influence—and the limits of it—were on display in recent days. He had a central role in designing Trump’s reciprocal trade action, which hiked U.S. tariffs to levels not seen since before World War II, before being paused by Trump on Wednesday afternoon. That abrupt shift, effectively repudiating Navarro’s hard-line stance, sent stocks soaring and calmed nerves on Wall Street and in Washington."
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/peter-navarro-trump-tariffs-48dc0b74?st=YnAGEz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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95
Trump Tariffs started today, Some Countries Caved in early morning.
by liam inusa politicians in charge of the economy for the past 50 years were too stupid to understand how the economy works.
this just proves my theory, that an education on the top tier universities just sucks and means nothing in the real world, unless its in the stem education.
for 50 years usa had zero tariffs on other countries.
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Balaamsass2
Well, another day, another tweet. 4/8 4:00 pm EST. The market is UP. lol!
Scratching my thinning gray hair...Who IS Trump listening to? It appears that College Professor Peter Navarro is that person, so I plan on reading more about him and watching his documentary about China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Navarro
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Our (JW) genetic mutation
by Jalisco inthe spiritual dna of our faith was "protestant" for over 100 years, until 1985, after which it changed to a catholic sense.
for example, for decades we were presented with the example of the bereans who "were more noble-minded than those of thessalonica" because they went to see in the scriptures if what paul preached to them was really like that.
and then a second to the bereans?
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Balaamsass2
Ah...I remember the changes...too well. Bethel went on a witch hunt. Anyone who knew or spent any time with Ray Franz was under a microscope and subject to the inquisition...including myself. I had "shared meals" with Ray and Cynthia in their room! The baptism changes made me choke...they smacked of creature worship.
It was like a fever in California when the Time magazine story hit the news stands.
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Religion: Witness Under Prosecution
6 minute readRichard N. OstlingFebruary 22, 1982 12:00 AM ESTA secretive and apocalyptic sect shuns a former leader
For 40 years Raymond Franz devoted his whole being to the Jehovah’s Witnesses. The religion responded by raising him to the very top, as a member of its worldwide Governing Body. But it was a difficult period for the leadership. In 1975 the sect faced a debacle: the present world did not vanish as Witness publications had all but guaranteed. In a faith in which doubt is not tolerated, questions inevitably arose in the minds of some believers. Gradually Franz began to question other teachings, and now, in a downfall as dramatic as an excommunication within the College of Cardinals, he has been ostracized, or as the Witnesses say, “disfellowshipped.” The result is that the former leader is being shunned by almost everyone he has ever worked with, cut off from all relatives except his wife, and denied any hope of eternal life.
Officials of the Watch Tower Society, as the religious organization of 2,257,000 followers is formally known, refused all comment on the unprecedented case. But Franz, 59, reluctantly agreed to break his silence and explain to TIME the accusations against him. In doing so, he provides a rare glimpse inside the secretive headquarters of the tightly organized faith.
Franz is a third-generation Witness. His uncle, Frederick W. Franz, 88, has been the religion’s top ideologue for decades and, since 1977, its head. Raymond Franz began full-time work for the sect as soon as he finished high school. He suffered penury during 20 years as a missionary in the Caribbean, became a trusted writer of official publications, and joined the 17-member Governing Body in 1971.
Known to outsiders for their persistent door-to-door proselytizing, Jehovah’s Witnesses exist within what Franz calls a “hermetically sealed” community; every doctrinal blip or scintilla of sin is closely monitored. Nowhere is this more true than at Bethel, the sect’s Brooklyn headquarters. By Franz’s account, reading or studying of the Bible is considered “evil” unless conducted in authorized discussions following Watch Tower doctrinal guides, lest staffers veer into error.
Because of his own work as an author of an official volume about the Bible and a growing feeling that Watch Tower discipline was too harsh, Franz privately concluded that the religion emphasized human organization rather than biblical teachings. Says he: “While producing people who were outwardly moral, they subverted the essential qualities of humility, compassion and mercy.”
Franz never hinted at his uncertainties as he delivered speeches in 50 nations through the 1970s. But to ease his internal strain, he took a leave of absence from his Bethel duties early in 1980. Meanwhile, the Governing Body had begun a secret investigation of heresy rumors, and it used star-chamber tactics. Initially there were no direct confrontations. Instead, staff members were allegedly threatened with disfellowshipping to get their testimony about doctrinal discussions with others. On May 21, Franz was summoned to Brooklyn for a fateful grilling by his Governing Body colleagues. Did he doubt that Jehovah had only one chosen organization? Did he question the official End-times chronology? Franz sought to avoid confrontation but could “only bend so far.” It was not enough. Opponents were unable to get a two-thirds majority for his disfellowshipping on the spot, but he was forced to resign from Bethel. In all, about a dozen officials were purged, almost certainly the worst doctrinal crisis Watch Tower headquarters has ever faced.
But the pursuit of Franz was not over. As a refugee from Bethel and his life’s work, he found himself with few marketable skills, a $10,000 settlement from headquarters and $600 in personal savings. He turned to an old friend in the faith, Peter Gregerson of Gadsden, Ala., who runs a regional supermarket chain. Gregerson loaned Franz and his wife a house trailer to live in and gave him work as a handyman. By 1981 Gregerson too had begun to question Watch Tower dogma and resigned from the faith.
Six months later, the official Watchtower newspaper announced that the policy of shunning disfellowshipped Witnesses included shunning those like Gregerson who were “disassociated.” Not long afterward, Franz was seen in a restaurant eating a meal with his benefactor Gregerson. That single sighting provided the technical infraction for which Franz was finally disfellowshipped by the Gadsden leaders two months ago. “By one stroke they eliminated all my years of service,” says Franz. “I frankly do not believe there is another organization more insistent on 100% conformity.”
From the leaders’ viewpoint, however, it was obviously imperative to strike at Franz and the others. The dissenters’ Luther-like emphasis upon “Scripture alone” rather than official interpretation was only one threat to the foundations of the religion. Many other central Watch Tower doctrines were also at stake.
For one, Witnesses believe that only 144,000 of the faithful (a number taken from Revelation 14: 1-3) will be “born again” and go to heaven. The faith’s rulers, among whom Raymond Franz was once numbered, come from this elite. The “other sheep” who are loyal to the Watch Tower are promised an earthly paradise. Jehovah will shortly annihilate the rest of the human race. The dissenters reject this class system. They contend that the figure of 144,000 is symbolic and that all believers since Christ’s day will go to heaven.
The Witnesses also teach that the Second Coming occurred secretly in 1914, a date reached by complex historical and biblical rationales; the end of the world system must occur during the present generation (an interpretation of Luke 21: 32: “This generation will not pass away till all has taken place”). The dissidents have come to believe that Christ’s kingdom and the “last days” were inaugurated at about A.D. 33, and that Christ’s Second Coming is a future event.
The dissenters, in other words, have moved toward conventional Christianity, except for continuing to reject Christ’s divinity. For his part, Franz has not become a bitter Watch Tower antagonist. “There is no life outside the organization” is all he will say about the pain of his shunning. But other ex-Witnesses have launched a barrage of protests, publications and lawsuits. These dissidents contend that roughly 1 million people have left the Watch Tower ranks over the past decade. The Witnesses report that they are still growing, thanks to nonstop recruiting. Still, that success may not go on for long. They have necessarily backed off the 1975 date, but the End must occur during the lifetime of people who still remember the earthly events of 1914. With the rapidly thinning ranks of such oldsters, the Witnesses confront an increasingly troublesome, self-imposed and absolute deadline. —By Richard N. Ostling. Reported by Anne Constable/Atlanta"
https://time.com/archive/6856641/religion-witness-under-prosecution/