Hello all: I made significant revisions, so I am sending this to the top. I think that numbers are better, and the correlations to the USA national averages are better. Thanks for your input. - Amazing
Amazing
JoinedPosts by Amazing
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"REVISED" PEDOPHILE POLL RESULTS
by Amazing inthanks for the helpful comments.
as a result, this post is revised in the "analysis" portion below.
i made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks.
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Kent's Issue vs Constitution
by Amazing ini broke this into a new thread from kent's 'wake up call for us citizens' because i want to take a new spin on it.
i have added comments and made edits to reflect those changes in red.. kent raised an excellent issue about the arrest in florida of a reporter who violated a florida law by reporting on an internal police investigation.
this is an alarming law!
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Amazing
Hi Kent: Yes, you make a very valid point. Your sub-note about Adolph Hitler reminds me of Hitler's policy that if you take away guns from the People, and given the guns just to your friends, you can control a nation. Joseph Stalin adopted this policy for the Soviet Union, and it kept the Russian People in control for over 70 years.
I have mixed feelings about guns and the evidence is mixed as well. In some Democratic nations that have banned private handgun ownership, crime seems to be low. In the USA we have both phenomenon. Some places, like New York and Wshington D.C. have banned handgun ownership, and these two cities have the highest crime rate per capita in the nation. In Florida, Texas and other states, the conceal and carry hanggun laws have reduced crime, at least against local residents. So, it is mixed.
I hate to see kids get hold of guns and use them at school to mass murder. When I was a kid we had all kinds of guns, that were kept open and loaded in my bedroom, yet, like so many kids in the 1950s and 1960s, we did not take these to school or use them on other kids. It was just unheard if to even think about such things.
On the other hand, and unarmed people are at the mercy of criminals and a rougue government. Some argue that the People at large are helpless against modern trained and equipped armies with nuclear weapons. But, they forget that when an army turns on its own citizens, use of extreme force almost never works because the logistics make use of advanced weapons unfeasible. That is why Russia has had a hell of a time in Chechnia (sp) and other nations find it hard as well to control an armed people.
I honestly don't know for sure what is best, other than hoping that we can as an advanced society make changes peacefully through the ballot box, the courts, and maybe the media, etc. I do believe that our basic rights have been greatly eroded. Many States have launched new laws that go around the criminal statutes and made many crimes a civil violation, for which the burden of proof is shifted to the accused, and grant wider police powers. It is a dangereous precedent. - Amazing
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Kent's Issue vs Constitution
by Amazing ini broke this into a new thread from kent's 'wake up call for us citizens' because i want to take a new spin on it.
i have added comments and made edits to reflect those changes in red.. kent raised an excellent issue about the arrest in florida of a reporter who violated a florida law by reporting on an internal police investigation.
this is an alarming law!
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Amazing
I broke this into a new thread from Kent's 'Wake up call for US Citizens' because I want to take a new spin on it. I have added comments and made edits to reflect those changes in red.
Kent raised an excellent issue about the arrest in Florida of a reporter who violated a Florida law by reporting on an internal police investigation. This is an alarming law! While I can understand the authorities wanting to keep an investigation under wraps until it is completed and charges filed, early disclosure can at times compromise an investigation. But this should be at the discretion of the police to control, as sometimes a little disinformation or misinformation to the press can aid in sorting out an investigation, and helping to expose the real criminal.Nonetheless, to make it a crime for a reporter to go public is alarming. I figure that if the reporter has the story, its fair game.
Federal Constitution: Many Americans misunderstand our Federal and State constitutions and the legal theory our laws are built upon. The Federal constitution was never intended to "grant rights" to the people, nor a tool to limit the rights of the People, such as the case with the now repealed 18th Ammendment which prohibited the sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages in the USA. OUR RIGHTS, that is ALL rights are already presumed to be in the possession of the people. The Constitution was really intended to limit and bound government, and what government can do. Why? Because the people of that time were scared to death of Big Organization and Central Power vested in the King and the religion of his choice! Therefore, the US Constitution is a document whereby the people only "loan" limited power to the Federal Government for a limited purpose.
What screwed us up with this piece of history is the Bill of Rights. Some of the Founding Fathers did not want to include a Bill of Rights because they feared that it would be construed that other rights not so enumerated were not self-evident. But they also feared that without a Bill of Rights, the lawyers in Congress would weasel their way into infringing on these 'understood' rights. So, the Bill of Rights was included to make sure they didn't screw with our most basic rights, and that the Bill of Rights also assures that other rights not so enumerated are still the presumed to be with the People and the States, and not the Government. This has worked well, but because our school systems have not stayed with Constitutional theory when educating grade school to high school levels, then one does not always understand this vital legal theory unless they become a lawyer. And even lawyers have lost some of this, such that some have to be known as Constitutional Lawyers.
Federal vs State: But, as good as the Federal Constitution is, it only applies to Federal issues and primarily as it relates to the several States. . The States and the People in those states are not bound by the Federal Constitution, except to be guaranteed a Republican form of government. Otherwise all bets are off. So, a State can ban guns, and religion, and freedom of speech, if the People in that state so choose to do so, or permit their State Government to do so, and the Federal government cannot do squat about it. That is why, technically the South was correct about Slavery from a 'Legal' perspective according to the Constitution. Make no mistake, I agreed and support the North in putting a stop to Slavery by force. The common moral issue outweighed the technical 'legal' issue. But my point is that this is why the South stuck to their position, because our Federal Constitution made provision for Slaves.
The Federal Constitution was later Ammended in the 19th Century to also enforce, in addition to a republican form of Government, the basic rights assured in the Bill of Rights, upon State governments. This was a radical departure from the original intend, but I believe a good move for the most part. However, this Ammendment placed the Federal Government deeper into State affairs, and helped enhance the false notion that the Federal Government grants rights to the People. That is why some Conservatives fight against new rights being 'granted' as it is really not necessary. But Liberals have a point in that some States legal mechanisms need to be dealt with at the Federal level.
In a more modern setting, this States Rights system built into the Constitution is also why the States of Illinois and New York can ban carrying a hand gun, but other States choose not to ban hand guns. Michigan just joined Florida, Texas, Oregon and a handfull of other States in reinstituting 'Conceal and Carry laws'. They could not have had such bans in the first place were they totally bound by the Federal Constitution. The Constitution only keeps Congress from infringing on your rights, to keep power divested to the States and the People in those states. Within those States, however, it is tough crap. The People can vote to do almost anything as long as they maintain a Republican form of government, and now assure something close to the Bill of Rights in the Federal Constitution. This assures that if the People don't like their laws in their States they can either vote to change them or move to another State.
States still have latitude with basic rights: Washington State, for example, allows freedom of speech and the press as does the Federal Constitution, BUT, they have weasel-worded it to say that this is confined to "responsible" speech. Who, then determines what is 'responsible' speech? Ultimately the State Legislature does when enacting Administrative rules and various Criminal Statutes. So, freedom of speech can be watered down at the State level. And unless the People of that State bitch loudly about it, and/or take matters to the US Supreme Court, their basic rights are still infringed at the State level.
Therefore, As alarming as it is, Florida is free to ban reporters within thier jurisdiction from reporting internal police investigations, and there is nothing anyone can do about it, unless the People in Florida decide to change the Law, or in this case, maybe the Press will use the courts and push the matter before the US Supremes. - Amazing
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reappoinments to elder or MS after a move...why?
by chester inthis may have already been discussed in this or other forums and i may have missed it.. in another thread chipster mentioned something about coming up for reappointment after a move.
especially if i was coming up for reappointent after a move.
it has always been a puzzle to me why a brother should have to be reappointed to his position after he moves to another congregation.. i have never heard anyone complain about it.
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Amazing
Hi Chester: I have been through this. After the Elder arrangement was put into place in 1972, when a Elder or MS moved, he was deleted and would have to completely prove himself again in the new Hall. The exception to this was if he was known already in the new Hall, or the previous congregation sent along a very good letter of introductsion. It was common practice to come in from Eldershiup in the old Hall and start as an MS in the new Hall. But, sometimes, the new Hall would simply make a direct transfer.
By the 1980s the Society clarified that any Elder transferring from one congregation to another would simply, with a letter of introduction, be reappointed in the new congregation as an Elder, and not have to go through being an MS again.
The reappointment in this case is not the same as the initial appointment by holy spirit, because that is already recognized. Rather the reappointment in this case is more of a reassignment from one congregation to another. The Society now controls what positions an Elder serves in, so when an Elder moves, he steps down from his old position, and in the new congregation he will just be an Elder with no position, unless therre is a need. - Amazing
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"REVISED" PEDOPHILE POLL RESULTS
by Amazing inthanks for the helpful comments.
as a result, this post is revised in the "analysis" portion below.
i made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks.
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Amazing
Thanks for the helpful comments. As a result, this Post is revised in the "Analysis" portion below. I made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks. I did notice the errors at first, but it was posted and I was out of time.
POLL RESULTS AND ANALYSIS: I appreciate everyone participating in the POLL. I had the thread locked so that the results would be preserved consistent with my analysis. Also, additional numbers will not add that much more meaning, as I believe that we have enough data to at least form a reasonable conclusion.
Premise of POLL: You will note that I only asked one question. I did not ask how many congregations you were in, nor did I limit the responses only to those who knew molesters. So, some of you who knew none took the time to respond. This open-ended approach is good because the simpler the poll, with few or just one question, helps to reduce confusion and mainly helps mitigate slanting or prejudicing the results: Now let’s look at the tabulation and see what we can make of it:
Total readers as of today: 1200+
Total responses: 90
Subtract to bring post to top: 7
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Net Responses: 83Total knowing zero molesters: 19
Total knowing one or more: 64
Total known molesters reported: 183
Average per ALL respondents: 2.20
Ave. among those knowing one or more molesters: 2.86Total non-USA respondents: 14
Total non-USA molesters cited: 29Percentage Non-USA responses: 17%
Percentage of Non-USA molesters:16%Analysis: I am using two important conservative values: 1.) That the average JW has been in at least five (5) congregations in their lifetime. 2.) I am using the lower average of ALL respondents of 2.20 known molesters per person, including those non-USA. This allows for any other variations such as a congregations where some know about a molester, but others do not. 3.) This study is applied only to the USA. Some of the respondents posted were from other nations as were the molesters they reported, but my conservative assumptions help offset this, and it is evident that the ratios of respondents to molesters is about the same, that is 17% to 16%. So these will be kept in the study of the USA as it will not affect the extrapolations.
A. – Averages: Total respondents were 83. If we conservatively assume that each has been in five (5) congregations, then this means that of 415 (83 x 5) congregations there are 183 known molesters. This yields an average of 0.44 molesters per congregation, whether every JW knows about the molester or not, and/or accounts for several JWs in the same congregation knowing the same molester.
B. – Extrapolation: There are about 11,500 congregation in the USA. Therefore, conservatively using the average of 0.44 molesters per congregation times 11,500 congregations, yields 5,071 molesters per ALL congregations in the USA. This is still higher than my original analysis of about 3,000 to 3,500 molesters nationwide.
C. – Additional Conservatism: "Deleted" and unnecessary
D. – Potential Victims: The victims of JW molesters do not have to be JWs themselves. The mere fact they are a victim is adequate for this analysis. Molesters are a threat to every child regardless of sex, religion, etc. The attorney that I worked with on this issue uses the average of 300+ victims per molester. He bases his number on studies that have to hold up in a court of law when prosecuting cases for his clients. Therefore, 300 victims x 5,071 molesters among the JWs nationwide yields a potential victims population of 1,521,325 victims of JW molesters.
E. – JW Population: The fact that this number exceeds the total number of about 1,000,000 JWs in the USA is not critical. Remember that the Society primarily counts active, baptized publishers as its ‘official’ count. There are likely another 1,000,000 associating who are newly interested, Bible Studies, and others. The JW parents may have as many as 1 to 3 children associating, thus adding another 1,000,000 or so to the JW population in the USA. Also, recall that the victims may not all be JW children.
F. – JWs to the USA: There are about 280,000,000 residents in the USA, of which there are about 1,000,000 active JWs. This gives a ratio of 1 active JW for every 280 residents. However, the JW population is higher if one counts those associating, studying, inactive, and children. I suggest that this falls somewhere between a total of 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 JWs and associates in the USA. This would render about 1 JW in every 100 USA residents.
The significance is that if there are 5,071 molesters among about 1,000,000 active JWs in the USA, this yields a percentage of 0.51 percent of the JW population are molesters. Let’s look at this further:
Studies show that about 6% to 60% of all females, and 3% to 30% of all males in the USA have been sexually abused or molested at least once before age 18. The current population in the USA is now almost evenly divided between male and female. That balance used to favor more females because of war in the 20th century killing off a lot of men, but has changed by the late 1990s. Using that even distribution, 6% of females and 3% of males can be averaged out to conservative 4.5% to 45% of the population in the USA has been sexually abused prior to age 18.
How many potential molesters in the general population? Using the lower number of 4.5% to 280,000,000 residents equals a potential victim population of 12,600,000 nationwide. I think this is a little low. If molesters have an average of 300+ victims, then this would translate into 42,000 molesters nationwide among the general population. Again, I think this number is a little low. It does represent a molester population of 0.0002 (0.02%) of the nation at large.
Therefore, the JW average I found of 5.2% JW victim population and 0.44 JW molester population correlates somewhat to the national averages and is withing range of the general population. The JWs averages appears a little higher I suspect because of the Watch Tower being a more fertile ground for pedophiles to locate. Or my extrapolation may be high, though I do not think so. This was also the case among other religions, public and private schools, and day care centers before the legislators increased regulations and victims increased civil suits against churches, schools, and day care centers. This forced a serious change in operations among these groups. The Watch Tower is clearly behind the rest of the nation in addressing this most serious issue.
Correlation: I find enough correlation in this study to suggest to me that the data supports the extrapolations. Given the conservatism used, and the correlation to the studies done on the general population, this study seems to be valid:
My Assessment: 1,521,325 potrential victims of JW molesters can also be evaluated down by using the national victim averages: Using the national Average of 4.5% to about 3,000,000 associated with JWs would yield 135,000 victims of JWs molesters with all who may associate with that organization. Does an order of magnitude lower make us feel better?
Why the large ranges?: The ranges of 3% to 30% (men), 6% to 60% (women), and 5.1% (JWs) shown above are not because the data is unscientific or wildly uncertain. Everyone in the USA has not submitted to study such that the actual number is not known. Mental Health professionals, therefore, have to use study data as it is collected from actual case loads and input for evaluation and extrapolation. So, the range is likely done much the same way I mitigated my extrapolations. Frankly 3% to 6% is scary enough without taking this to the potential of 30% to 60%. Also, these ranges account for definition issues, such as the total sets including fondling, whereas subsets may only discuss actual genital copulation.
What to make of this?: Approximately 135,000 to 1,521,325 victims of JW molesters? What price do you place on this? How do you account for a religion that claims to be more pure than all other religions or organizations or peoples or nations on this planet – a religion whose extrapolated molestation average of 5.2% exceeds the USA national extrapolated average of 4.5%? How do you begin to stop this insanity? How do you make sure that innocent men do not get falsely accused? How do to repair the damage and emotionally and spiritually heal the children? How do you help the children, mostly male victims, avoid double victimization as adults by being suspected as higher risk to become molesters?
How do you break the chain of abuse? Maybe its time to start standing up publicly by being counted, and break the silence! Maybe we cannot do this for the whole nation, but as former JWs, maybe we can at least help with the 1% of JW populations that we know about. Maybe, NBC Dateline is the first among many such steps to get this ball rolling – and make the world a little better for our children and grandchildren to come. Eccl. say that there is a time for peace and a time for war; a time for silence, and a time to speak.
In our civilization and in our individual lifetime we have opportunity to make a difference. We need some rational and mature treatment of this serious social ill of molestations among the JWs. The peodphiles need to be kept away from children, but need mental health treatment and/or biological treatment to find a cure for their madness. More importantly, the victims need to finally feel safe enough to speak up and get help, and identify the perpertrators. Victims need help to break the cycle before many of them will become perpertrators or isolated and mentally depressed for life. Does not this situation appeal to our inner most sense of humanity to take a stand? - Amazing
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POLL - Elders vs Molesters
by Amazing ini wish to conduct a legitimate poll, or at least as legitimate as it can get on this forum.
unless you are or were a jw, please do not respond or make comments.
please simply give an answer, without extended comments.
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Amazing
I am locking this POLL now to perserve the results. As of 10:00 AM this morning, the POLL post shows 88 responses. I want to preserve the results used as is. It is not that I mind more additions, and locking it will not really at this point have any significant effect on the results. I simply want to be sure that the POLL RESULTS POST and the POLL POST are consistent. Thanks. - Amazing
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BRCI - POLL - JUSTICE - Much to Discuss
by Amazing inhello all: i am back at my pc after brci.
i have many things to discuss with you, the poll, the completion of justice#16 - part 2, and many interesting things, some of which will surprise you and some will make you sad, and some will make you laugh.
i have a work project i must complete today first.
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Amazing
Hello All: I am back at my PC after BRCI. I have many things to discuss with you, the POLL, the Completion of Justice#16 - Part 2, and many interesting things, some of which will surprise you and some will make you sad, and some will make you laugh. I have a work project I must complete today first. It is a legal deposition unrelated to JW issues. Not serious stuff, just with some real estate actiuvity, but it has to take priority. I am posting this just so you know that I am back and will be updating you. Thanks. - Amazing
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Prelim. POLL results to Justice #16 - Part 2
by Amazing inhello all: i am going to include the poll results and analysis in part 2 to justice #16, the one where i was blindsided as a result of brother g, whom i discussed in part 1. i will also at that time discuss certain aspects of the poll that will help you see its validity.
i am shocked so far.. but here are the preliminary numbers:.
in the first 3 hours last night and then again by this morning about 12 hours later:.
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Amazing
Hello All: I am going to include the POLL results and analysis in Part 2 to Justice #16, the one where I was blindsided as a result of Brother G, whom I discussed in Part 1. I will also at that time discuss certain aspects of the POLL that will help you see its validity. I am shocked so far.
But here are the preliminary numbers:
In the first 3 hours last night and then again by this morning about 12 hours later:
03 hours: 23 responses (including mine) 51 molesters known.
12 hours: 38 responses (including mine) 97 molesters known.
Readers: 320 that looked at the POLL, many did not respond or were reviewing results themselves, but had already responded.Leaving for BRCI: I am now leaving for the conference, and have about a 7 hour drive ahead of me. When I return I will post all this on Monday and provide a conservative analysis and complete Justice #16, Part 2. This should make everyone stand up and think very seriously. But while I am away, just look at the results so far.
97 molesters known by just 38 respondants. According to the web site that reports studies on molesters, the average molester will in their careers as pedophiles, molest an average of 117 children.
SO, without any extrapolation, this means that just the numbers reported on this board, there are a minium potential of 11,349 victims. If I were to use the later figures according to the Chicago attorney I worked with on this issue - an attorney that prosecutes cases where religious men are pedophiles and therefore he must have his facts together to make his cases in a court of law - he says 300+ victims is the more realistic number, then this means we have a minium of 29,100 victims using just the 97 known JW molesters reported on JWD in a matter of 12 hours among just 38 respondants.
Now do we see why SilentLambs keeps saying that the WTS religous association is a haven for pedophiles? Just wait until the extrapolations and analysis are done and I have additional results by Monday.
Finally, if the POLL itself starts to get burried, could someone take a moment and bring it back to the top so I will not lose it. My PC and/or the JWD software will only allow me to go back a couple of days. I have monkeyed with all the settings, it is just something in the system. Also, by keeping the POLL on top, it will assure that less frequent respondants have opportunity to respond.
Thanks. - Amazing
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JUSTICE #15 - Parking Lot DFing
by Amazing inparking lot disfellowshipping .
[i have changed the sequence of the justice series.
i will post the other titles later.].
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Amazing
Hi Tina: You are correct in that you didn't make some of the allegations that I cited. When I read your post is came at the end of several supporting MommyDark who took a harsh stand with me, as though I was trying to justify something about JW Elder and Watch Tower justice. Far from it, I was, as you stated, simply stating how it was. So, I lumped together a number of items.
In my supplement to Justice #15, I clarified more of this. But MommyDark took some things and created misunderstanding, and made allegations based on her own embellishments.
No, I don't plan to stop the series. It was more of a rehtorical poiunt I was making. The context of these series is that they took place in the 1980s, and therefore, I am far removed from them. I culd never, even with training and the best of experience, even engage in this kind of religious court system ever again.
I think you made a good point in stating that maybe some of the Justice posts strike a strong chord with some, and perhaps MommyDark was also overreacting, and forgetting where I am at now as opposed to what I was then. It is an easy transition to make, and one that I do myself at times. Thanks again for posting back your thoughts and kindly stating things. - Amazing
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More on JW "Confidential Files"
by Bendrr ini had a conversation last night with an old friend (not a jw) and brought up the subject of my file.. we discussed how to obtain the file.
needless to say, over a few beers it got very interesting with drawings and maps.. when he left i phoned another old friend in the town in question and told him briefly about the discussion.. he said to hold off on any "operation" because he knew someone i could talk to.
since he was on a cell phone, he didn't want to talk much.
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Amazing
Hi Benderr: The comment by AGuest about using the Freedom of Information act is not applicable with respect to private records not in the public domain. This would be doubly true of religious protection under State and Federal Constitutions. The Elders and the Soceity would claim clergy-Pentinent privilege.
Whatever you do, don't do anyting illegal, such as having someone break in and take them. If a sympathetic JW and/or Elder is willing to retrieve them for you, that may work, and avoid charges, depending on your state laws. If you do get your records, whatever you do, make a copy first and place it in a safe place with someone or in a safe deposit box in another state, and an extra copy for your attorney. Then make a working copy to keep with you.
The files are supposed to be kept at the Kingdom Hall. (When I was Sec. we kept them at my home.) You may need to find out where in the Hall they are kept. Often they are kept in the Library or what constitutes the Sceond school. In our Hall, we had three schools, and the basement school had an office build off the back end, and that is where a locked standard four drawer metal file cabinette was kept. It was not uncommon for Elders to forget to lock it.
I strongly discourage tampering with locks or doing anything that would cause any criminal charges to be filed against you or any working with you.
If an Elder brought out your file for you to look at while he was there, you could try to have a small hidden camera on your person and make photos, but that scenario is costly, requires training, and is mot likely that an Elder would cooperate with you. Good luck.
Amazing