I love the SF Gate (Chronicle) they have a way of saying it like it is without seeming like attacking the crazy religious folks.
Posts by zarco
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3New crazy predicting the end of the world.
by maninthemiddle inmabe the ws needs to talk to him, they haven't predicted a date is a while.. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/01/01/ba8v1av589.dtl&tsp=1.
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Why Do JWs Say Jehovah Protects His People & Then Claim "Time & Unforseen Occurences"?
by minimus inyou'll hear experiences of how jehovah god protected his people in modern times, how only jehovah's witnesses didn't die in a calamity, how an angel evidently protected a person, etc.
they'll show how jehovah takes care of his people by all sorts of almost "miraculous" events----but if a witness did die or something deadly happened to a carload of jws, well, then, it's just "time and unforseen occurence" and we can't expect jehovah to perform miracles in our day, anyway!.
what gives?
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zarco
Moshe - good point. If only the witness god would prove as generous. I hold out hope that he is, my hope is fading somewhat.
( wait, I wasn't a JW anymore when I did that!)
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58
World Conditions Continue to Improve
by zarco instartfragment.
as we enter into a new decade, it might make sense to look back to view the progress than mankind has made in these last days.. about 200 years ago everyone on the planet lived on the modern day equivalent of about $400 a year.
the exceptions were tiny nobilities.
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zarco
Interesting comments. Time and time again the bet against humans and our ability to solve problems whether they be economic, health, food or population growth issues is a bad bet. The human mind and the vast under-utilized resources of the earth will continue to facilitate continued improvements in all aspects of human life. There will always be costs and benefits associated with each change/improvement. Interestingly most forecasters focus on the costs rather than the benefits with the main premise being that more people have to share the pie, whereas a more realistic forecast is probably how big will the pie be.
Jafco - living conditions are improving worldwide. Two and three hundred years ago, western societies had child labor, lived hand to mouth and had high mortality rates - just as third world countries do today. But just a surely as the massive innovation and critical mass pulled today's wealthy societies out of poverty, it will do the same for third world countries in the future. Think back two or three hundred years ago to life in the US or Europe and compare it to life today and look forward two or three hundred years and see what is most surely to happen to third world countries.
Villabolo - I enjoyed your comments. It is easy to project the costs of population growth, it is more difficult to project the benefits. Every forecaster that I know of has always under-estimated the benefits. And when the population growth happens it is the benefits that are vastly superior to the costs.
zarco
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HERE'S THE 2007 SERVICE YEAR REPORT
by Mary ini'm not sure if this has been posted yet, so i took the liberty of scanning a copy.
here is the figures for the 2007 service year report.
interesting that over 9,000 partook at the memorial last year when the numbers should be going down.
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zarco
AwSnap - good point. China is roughly 4.4 times as large (population) as the United States. The preaching work in the US has gone on for 100 years or so and it has not even got a good foothold in China yet. Using JW logic, the end is a long, long way off.
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The Future of the Economy
by metatron ini've started this subject a few times and dumped out of it an equal number of times, hoping for better guidance.
at this point, i think it is better for everyone to face highly likely outcomes and get realistic.. first, let's say it plainly: this is a depression.
i define "depression" as a multiyear period of economic weakness, decline, and depressed economic opportunity.
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zarco
the majority of retirees will be out of the main stream of spending and put into a conserving mode
thetrueone - people in conserving mode is probably the best thing that can happen. I know that flies in the face of common knowledge, but consider:
When people conserve they use less of things, those who produce such things are now freed up to do other things that add more value. If a retired person eats less there is more food and if no one wants the extra food the price of food goes down. Both good things.
z
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World Conditions Continue to Improve
by zarco instartfragment.
as we enter into a new decade, it might make sense to look back to view the progress than mankind has made in these last days.. about 200 years ago everyone on the planet lived on the modern day equivalent of about $400 a year.
the exceptions were tiny nobilities.
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zarco
Villabolo - the "Texas example" is an extreme to get people to think creatively. Imagine the remainder of the US to use for agriculture and other uses Increasing population is a good thing and it is self-regulating if it becomes a bad thing. Michael Kremer - the Harvard economist - has gathered data for all of recorded human history and pre-history to support the theory that population growth drives technological progress, technological progress drives economic growth and economic growth drives population growth - a virtuous cycle....
Thomas Malthus said when welcoming in nineteenth century predicted that uncontrolled population growth would lead to mass starvation and human misery. It didn't happen then and will not in this century.
Some really profound thinking on the costs and benefits of population growth (the benefits far outweigh the costs) are found in the writing and research of Sowell, Kremer and Landsburg. Give it a read.
Best,
Z
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58
World Conditions Continue to Improve
by zarco instartfragment.
as we enter into a new decade, it might make sense to look back to view the progress than mankind has made in these last days.. about 200 years ago everyone on the planet lived on the modern day equivalent of about $400 a year.
the exceptions were tiny nobilities.
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zarco
Moshe - a statistic and a thought for your consideration.
Population growth is the greatest thing that can happen. We need more geniuses, we need more people growing and producing things of value. Technology advances increase food production and such advances are highly correlated with increases in population. And families can choose its own population growth rate, which become self-regulating.
A statistic from Thomas Sowell: Take the state of Texas, divide it into lots of 5,000 square feet, put a house on each lot and put a family of four in each house. You have just housed the entire world population. Think about that, just the state of Texas.....
Best,
Zarco
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10
The Future of the Economy
by metatron ini've started this subject a few times and dumped out of it an equal number of times, hoping for better guidance.
at this point, i think it is better for everyone to face highly likely outcomes and get realistic.. first, let's say it plainly: this is a depression.
i define "depression" as a multiyear period of economic weakness, decline, and depressed economic opportunity.
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zarco
Metatron – I enjoy your posts very much. They are thought-provoking. Below I present a few thoughts that disagree with yours.
First, let's say it plainly: this is a depression.
The United States and much of the developed world has had a economic slow down. However, the economies are not contracting, rather they are growing. Since the industrial revolution, incomes in the west have increased on average 1.5 percent per year, in the last 50 years 2.3 percent. These growth rates are unprecedented in human history.
The Great Depression of the 1930s reduced income levels to what they had been about 20 years previously. For a few years, people had to live as their parents lived, not worse.
If we are in a depression, we might have to live like individuals did a decade ago, but no worse than that. It is not a catastrophe, rather a blimp in the most prosperous time in human history.
Second, nearly no one is willing to discuss the demographic problem facing the world. It's very simple: how can you have economic growth if you are losing net workers, net population, AND the fastest growing part of your population is retired people?
It is true that population growth in the west if stagnate and that the population is growing older. However, the world’s population is increasing. This increase will produce more ideas through a larger pool of geniuses, more innovation, larger markets and trading partners. In today’s global market and economy the populations of a few countries has little effect.
How can nations borrow huge amounts of money that is supposed to be paid back by grandchildren who aren't being born?
The per-capita debt of the US is lower than any other western economy and it is a fraction of the GNP. See a representative table below illustrating the per-capita debt of top 10 countries.
Greeks: $27,746
Belgians: $27,023
Austrians: $26,502
Irish: $24,247
Norwegians: $21,402
Italians: $21,089
French: $18,946
Germans: $15,574
Finns: $13,617
Americans: $11,094
Your point about new technology destroying jobs does not seem accurate. Think back to the greatest innovations of the 20 th century, the computer, the railroad, the internet, the airplane. In all instances new, robust markets developed around these innovations. History suggest that this will be the case again.
We are living a great time, the economy is better, our health is better, we live longer and the list goes on and on. We will look back a decade from now and marvel at how far we have progressed.
All the best,
zarco
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58
World Conditions Continue to Improve
by zarco instartfragment.
as we enter into a new decade, it might make sense to look back to view the progress than mankind has made in these last days.. about 200 years ago everyone on the planet lived on the modern day equivalent of about $400 a year.
the exceptions were tiny nobilities.
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zarco
As we enter into a new decade, it might make sense to look back to view the progress than mankind has made in these “last days”.
About 200 years ago everyone on the planet lived on the modern day equivalent of about $400 a year. The exceptions were tiny nobilities. In the late 18 th century life for all humans started to improve from one year to the next. Today we expect our cars, medical care and other systems to continually improve. Since the early 20 th century incomes have increased 1.5 percent per year.
Not only are we richer, we work less and have better products than ever before. A hundred years ago men began working in their teens with no vacations. One hundred years ago 26 percent of male workers retired by age 65, today over 80 percent do.
In developed countries the 99 percent of the poorest of the poor have refrigerators, in the US 64 percent have air conditioning and 60 percent have washers and dryers.
The probability of a 20-year-old having a living grandmother is higher than a 20-year-old having a living mother a century ago.
The list goes on and on. We live better, there is less starvation than anytime in recorded history, less water pollution than 100 years ago, we live longer and we are wealthier than any other time.
A sign of the last days, I think not.
Best,
Zarco
The comments above are taken from the American economist Steven Landsburg. Please see his writings for more statistical proof that the world is getting much, much better.
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39
Why Do JWs Say Jehovah Protects His People & Then Claim "Time & Unforseen Occurences"?
by minimus inyou'll hear experiences of how jehovah god protected his people in modern times, how only jehovah's witnesses didn't die in a calamity, how an angel evidently protected a person, etc.
they'll show how jehovah takes care of his people by all sorts of almost "miraculous" events----but if a witness did die or something deadly happened to a carload of jws, well, then, it's just "time and unforseen occurence" and we can't expect jehovah to perform miracles in our day, anyway!.
what gives?
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zarco
Moshe - I realize that this post will sound arrogant but here it goes... we have helped the elderly, we have bought cars for those who needed them, we have employed those without jobs and have bought food and shelter for some (many food, few shelter). We did it because we wanted to do so and are glad that we did. But god (jehovah) would not step up and do what he is supposed to do. He really has some explaining to do. What a cruel person he appears to be.
Zarco