a newly published article by british sociologist david voas argues jehovah's witnesses may be about to experience a collapse in numbers.
contrary to claims by american sociologist rodney stark who predicts strong future growth for jehovah's witnesses, voas shows that jehovah's witnesses' efforts at recruiting new members have become increasingly unsuccessful over the past few decades: the rate of increase has steadily declined, and the number of hours each publisher must preach to produce an extra convert has gone up substantially.
voas suggests a reason for the stagnation may be that there is a natural limit to the number of people in a given population that are susceptible to conversion to sectarian groups like jehovah's witnesses - the 'carrying capacity' of the population, and that the limit has largely been reached.
The numbers are propped up by modern medicine and the no-smoking trend. The oldies (late 60's up) in our cong of 65 publishers = 20 (plus 3 who have died in the last 12 months).
The only incomers are those moving in - no new blood except a few weirdo's who seem to make no progress beyond attending an occasional meeting. Only 3 born-ins under 15 as well.
That's 30% who are between 68 and 88 years old ...
They ain't gonna live forever!
i am really disturbed by some methods that jw family members try and use to emotionally manipulate us back into the organization.. one of our fellow posters here has had a family member send several photos of them as a child either out witnessing, and at an assembly.. no words - just those pictures.. it seems such an infantile and manipulative technique to employ?!.
do they think that we will all simply ignore the logical and factual reasons we no longer attend, just because we see some sentimental picture?
do they not see that this actually may reinforce our understanding that we were raised as children in a high-control religious group where we had to please our parents.
"Concerned" relative: "Well, Freddo if you don't get into the New System you won't see your (dead) parents in Paradise, will you?"
Freddo: "Well ... I suppose I have the small consolation of not having to help bury a billion dead children and babies slaughtered at Armageddon ... and just imagine the smell after a week or two."
2018-05-17-boejune's local needshttps://we.tl/ew4qtx7lb9atlantis!.
Not exactly fulano. This video will replace the local needs in the UK.
So where the local "loving" shepherds will prepare something really christian like helping orphans and widows in their tribulation or visiting the housebound or somesuch, instead they will trumpet the latest spiel on the great white elephant at Chelmsford.
Of course including "loving reminders" as to how we can "get involved" especially by way of our donations and Sophia's ice cream money.
i need a bit of advice.
i've been pimo for a long time and fading more and more.
i occasionally attend for family but never give any answers or actively participate in any way.
CoBE: "So Freddo, the Circuit Overseer and I would like to visit you to offer some encouragement."
Freddo: "How very thoughtful! But I think I will decline your kind offer as I already had Brothers Hopkins and Stearne come round only a few months ago. They told me all I need to know."
CoBE: "Who? Who are they? We don't have a Brother Hopkins or a Brother Stearne on the body of elders, Freddo."
Freddo: "You think not?"
CoBE: ????? (Then he goes and looks up the names.)
well, i got to see the final day of this years regional convention.and i saw something that disturbs me.. the final, "summing up review" video.
it disturbs me because it was so well done.
(i wish i could remember the title of the song), to the strains of a solo vocalist singing in a fine "irish tenor", we see the actors from the previous videos of the last few days all assembling together in a clearing.
Trouble is "Days of" that those studies (who likely are not the most robust of critical thinkers already) will ONLY see the "soldiers" taken out - not the nice crossing patrol lady down by the school or the kids that she helps cross the road.
The study will not equate the "wicked" with "all non-jw's" from the video.
You would need a good old fashioned ground opening, people and pet swallowing, car falling, fire and brimstone video for that.
in 1935 there were 63,146 who attended the memorial and 52,465 partook.
(proclaimers book page 717).
according to the bible teach book on page 78, it says, “since the days of the apostles, god has been selecting faithful christians in order to complete the number 144,000”.
LTPF "Of those alive in 1935 who partook, let’s say they were all 10 years of age or older. So then, if everyone who partook in 1935 was only 10 years old, they would be 82 years old now. But the far majority were much older. So nearly all of those who partook in 1935 are now dead." (Bold italics added)
92 years old actually. Born in 1925 ... so maybe even 93. It improves your excellent post.
i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.
once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.
and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.
My apologies Morpheus - I didn't make myself clear - I meant average numbers country by country.
Thanks.
read some reply's about jaracz being a child abuser.. is there any evidence about it?.
g..
"IF there is something to these allegations in regard a minor, obviously the Branch saw to it it didn't make it into the records that were at the Australian Royal Commission."
Or because both the accused and the victim are dead meant that they couldn't use it or refer to it?
i have to make a token appearance at the k.h.
once a month or so and this week went to a different hall.
and believe me they are all still totally oblivious to all the negative news about the pedophiles and shunning that have come under scrutiny by the media and other governments.
I do not think there will be a relatively quick demise of JW numbers.
BUT I think that dropping the yearbook (especially as it could so easily be produced on line) is an obvious sign that the numbers are flat lining.
Dropping the average figure of publishers for 2017 and only retaining the peak figure can only have been done because the average figure looked worse. (maybe a decline) There is no other explanation that I can think of.
IF next year all we get is "highlights" then you will KNOW that even by JW "Peak" counting methods that they have gone into decline.
IF next year we get only the worldwide figure with a slight increase and no country by country measure you can be sure that the USA has gone into decline which - after this year's (2017) increase posted of +684 out of 1,232,293 = a "massive" 0.05% increase over 2016 - would not surprise me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8hzakyfazc this is a talk this year about how to stay loyal to the cult.
it talks about not blaming yourself when your child is dfed.
but wait, when i was in the cult the elders told the parents of dfed children that it was their fault.
Yet according to the Beat ... err ... Shepherd the Flock book then an appointed man ALWAYS has his privileges "reviewed" when junior gets judicially reproved let alone DF'd.
