Comment on expandable chronology.
Someone above claims that the 70 years of desolation is assigned to 490 years. This does not work for the basic concepts of expandable chronology. The expandable chronology converts a year to 360 days and then using the "day of a year" formula (Ezk. 4:6), converts those days to years. This is consistent throughout. Therefore the 70-year desolation can never be converted to 490 years by this basic conversion. Let's look at a couple of examples:
A) The "7 times" prpohecy is a period of 7 years. At 360 days per year, you end up with 2520 days. Thus in this case, you have two fulfillments, one fulfilment called the "minor" fulfillment, where 2520 days are a literal 7 years, and a "major fulfillment" where the 2520 days become 2520 years, which the WTS applies to the 607 BCE date for the fall of Jerusalem and end up with 1914.
B) Another example is the "70 weeks" prophecy. A week is 7 days, so 70 weeks would be 490 days. So the "minor fulfillment" would be a period of 490 literal days, and the "major fulfillment" would use the "day for a year" formula to look for a fulfillment for 490 years. This prophecy has to do with the rebuilding of Jerusalem and also the 1st coming of the messiah. A literal 490 days is about a year and 4 months. Certainly no messiah appeared in such a short time period after Jerusalem began to be rebuilt. When 490 days becomes 490 years, though and we date the beginning of the 70th week with the appearance of the messiah at his baptism in 29 CE, then this prophecy begins in 455 BCE, as the witnesses claim. This prophecy begins with the "going forth of the word to rebuild Jerusalem." For those using the revised timeline like JWs, 455 BC has been manipulated ot occur in the 20th of Artaxerxes where we find Nehemiah engaged in rebuilding the walls of Jerusalem, which took a total of 52 days. But others who use historical records to remove 82 fake years from the Persian Period, date the 1st of Cyrus to 455 BCE. This is supported by the famous predictable eclipse by Thales occurring in year 2 of Nabonidus in February of 478 BCE. We get this chronology by using the first 20-year rule of Cyrus before he became king of Babylon and began his new rule over the combined empire of the Medes and Persians and began to start that new rule as year one. He became king over the Persians for 20 years beginning the 6th year of Nabonidus, thus in 475 BCE. (455+20=475 BCE) Add 5 years back to the 1st of Nabonidus and you get his first year in 480 BCE. (475+5=480 BCE). The eclipse match occurred in February of 478 BCE, which falls in the 2nd year of Nabonidus. After this, Nabonidus left the throne under the charge of his son, Belshazzar. The revised timeline which found an eclipse near Ionia in 585 BCE, though, is not a precise match and is not a predictable eclipse. Even so, 490 days is simply converted to 490 years.
So when someone claims that the 70 years of desolation can be converted to 490 years, it has nothing to do with the "day for a year" conversion. 70 years, a literal 70 years, when converted to days at 360 days per year is a period of 25,200 days, which then converts to 25,200 years! So it just doesn't work. I suppose one can convert 70 years to 490 years by a simple formula of multiplying by 7, but that's outside the rather direct concept of a "day for a year" conversion.
Now, someone noted that the time of desolation was only 50 years and not 70 years, quoting Josephus in Against Apion 1:21. What some don't realize is that in the same work Josephus states the period of desolation was seventy years, a reference he made in Antiquities 11:1. So the 50-year reference is considered cryptic and certainly does not reflect a revision of his previous statement about the 70 years. That is, no one has an epiphany within his own work sometime between paragraphs 1:18 and 1:21. Why he makes both references is up to interpretation, but you must remember Josephus is playing both sides of the fence here. He has created a history that can be "politically correct" on the surface while otherwise reflecting the true Biblical timeline. So you have to read between the lines. Here are those two, critical "seventy year" references by Josephus in both Antiquities and Against Apion:
Antiquities x.9.7 "7. And when they were there, God signified to the prophet that the king of Babylon was about making an expedition against the Egyptians, and commanded him to foretell to the people that Egypt should be taken, and the king of Babylon should slay some of them and, should take others captive, and bring them to Babylon; which things came to pass accordingly; for on the fifth year after the destruction of Jerusalem, which was the twenty-third of the reign of Nebuchadnezzar, he made an expedition against Celesyria; and when he had possessed himself of it, he made war against the Ammonites and Moabites; and when he had brought all these nations under subjection, he fell upon Egypt, in order to overthrow it; and he slew the king that then reigned (16) and set up another; and he took those Jews that were there captives, and led them away to Babylon. And such was the end of the nation of the Hebrews, as it hath been delivered down to us, it having twice gone beyond Euphrates; for the people of the ten tribes were carried out of Samaria by the Assyrians, in the days of king Hoshea; after which the people of the two tribes that remained after Jerusalem was taken [were carried away] by Nebuchadnezzar, the king of Babylon and Chaldea. Now as to Shalmanezer, he removed the Israelites out of their country, and placed therein the nation of the Cutheans, who had formerly belonged to the inner parts of Persia and Media, but were then called Samaritans, by taking the name of the country to which they were removed; but the king of Babylon, who brought out the two tribes, (17) placed no other nation in their country, by which means all Judea and Jerusalem, and the temple, continued to be a desert for seventy years; but the entire interval of time which passed from the captivity of the Israelites, to the carrying away of the two tribes, proved to be a hundred and thirty years, six months, and ten days."
The above 70 years are dated from the last deportation, year 23 of Nebuchadnezzar, when the nation was removed out of their land.
Antiquities 11.1.1 "1. IN the first year of the reign of Cyrus (1) which was the seventieth from the day that our people were removed out of their own land into Babylon, God commiserated the captivity and calamity of these poor people, according as he had foretold to them by Jeremiah the prophet, before the destruction of the city, that after they had served Nebuchadnezzar and his posterity, and after they had undergone that servitude seventy years, he would restore them again to the land of their fathers, and they should build their temple, and enjoy their ancient prosperity."
Here, the "poor people" is a reference to the poor people left in the land after Babylon had been destroyed in year 19 of Nebuchadnezzar, which poor people later ran down to Egypt, from which they were then deported to Egypt in year 23 of Nebuchadnezzar. Thus the 70 years of desolation are linked with the servitude of these poor people for 70 years at Babylon. Now of note, Josephus is dating this from year 23 of Nebuchadnezzar linked with the last deportation. The Bible agrees with this, and, in fact, the above reference is almost a direct paraphase of scripture at 2 Chronicles 36:
2 Chronicles 36:20 "Furthermore, he carried off those remaining from the sword captive to Babylon, and they came to be servants to him and his sons until the royalty of Persia began to reign; 21 to fulfill Jehovah’s word by the mouth of Jeremiah, until the land had paid off its sabbaths. All the days of lying desolated it kept sabbath, to fulfill seventy years."
2 Chronicles here calls the poor people "those remaining from the sword" and is a reference of those who escapled the sword of Nebuchadnezzar during his 23rd year campaign. Jeremiah 44:14 and 28 clearly notes that a few ones remaining from the sword in Egypt would return to the land of Judah. Deportations to Babylon were customarily at the very end of the year (beginning of Spring) so these last remnants of the Jewish people apparently were in Judea a very short time, perhaps only passing through Judea via the main highway from Egypt to Babylon. The WTS, therefore, ignores and contradicts both Josephus and the Bible by claiming the 70 years began the year Jerusalem fell. At any rate, you have two quotes from Josephus as to seventy years, not fifty years. Now here is his quote for seventy yeras in his final work, Against Apion 1.19:
1:19 "And when he was relating the acts of this king, he describes to us how he sent his son Nabuchodonosor against Egypt, and against our land, with a great army, upon his being informed that they had revolted from him; and how, by that means, he subdued them all, and set our temple that was at Jerusalem on fire; nay, and removed our people entirely out of their own country, and transferred them to Babylon; when it so happened that our city was desolate during the interval of seventy years, until the days of Cyrus king of Persia."
Okay? Now, rather mysteriously, just 2 paragraphs later at 1.21, he mentions these "fifty years" that everybody focuses on, ignoring the previous 3 references to the "seventy years", including the one above in the same work of Against Apion:
1:21: "These accounts agree with the true histories in our books; for in them it is written that Nebuchadnezzar, in the eighteenth year of his reign, laid our temple desolate, and so it lay in that state of obscurity for fifty years; but that in the second year of the reign of Cyrus its foundations were laid, and it was finished again in the second year of Darius."
So just so that all know, the fifty-year reference seems to be a cryptic one or it is a direct contradiction of the 70 years noted 2 paragraphs earlier in 1:19 and in consistent agreement with his two earlier references in Antiquities. So it is there to discuss and comment on and speculate on. Even, so, many always quote from 1:21 as if this 50-year reference supports the revised timeline.
MY THEORY, JUST IN PASSING: My personal take on this is that you can get around the obvious self contradiction here by Josephus if you recognize that Cyrus had two rulerships, 20 years apart. That is, by saying the temple was laid desolate for fifty years is not a contradiction if you are referencing the first fifty years before Cyrus came to the throne. Cyrus then ruled 20 years over the Persian part of the empire while Darius the Mede, his uncle-in-law, ruled over the Median part o the empire. When Babylon was conquered, Darius the Mede ruled over Babylon for 6 years. Then he abdicated to Cyrus who then became king over Greater Persia which included Babylonia, and began to restart this new rule over the entire Medo-Persian empire with year 1. So one way to harmonize the two references is within the context that the 50-year desolation occurred up to the time when Cyrus first became king over Persia Minor, but continued desolated for the next 20 years before Cyrus became king over Persia Major (including Babylonia), a period of 70 years.
Otherwise, this appears to be a contradiction and it is up for grabs why the two references are made. Even so, again, most discussants don't know about the three 70-year references, only the 50-year references that fits well into the revised chronology of the NB Period. Don't forget, per the Bible, the NB Period is 26 years longer! Many discussants like to quote Josephus' 50-year reference and apply it to 587-537 BCE, which fits into the reduced revised timeline, ignoring three 70-year references specifically beginning year 23 to the 1st of Cyrus. But that's how propaganda works in the context of ignorance, that is, ignorance about the complete references by Josephus.