:: When looking at the pattern over a 75 year time frame, I have to conclude that there is nothing the Organization can do to change this long term pattern.
This is the conclusion I have come to as well, over a number of years, larc.
Reform is impossible. In the meantime I will do everything in my power to correct the pedophile mess and axe the blood policy; I'd like to see an end to shunning, and there are senior men inside the Bible House who want to see this happen. I'm not optimistic about an end to this destructive evil anytime soon, if at all.
As to statistics: In a modest but dazzling display of some basic differential calculus, utilizing the second derivative of the function, AlanF a few years back analyzed the rate of growth of the rate of growth. The crunch occurs around 2000-2002. (He did this about five years ago; would love to see him take a second look at his data.) So here we are. A mighty bleak picture with an inevitable fate.
Further changes in doctrine would disillusion yet many more; they know that, another reason for the hardliners to cling. Further flock-flogging will just discourage those who keep looking for a more Christian organization.
Maximus