Riley, you are absolutely correct. The independent Fed accomplished what some thought impossible, a soft landing. Biden's people were professionals and did an honorable job keeping the ship aright. I don't have to have agreed with everything said or done to know that things would be much worse under Trumps stated policies. Hopefully Congress will again reject his aims to capture the Fed governors to do his bidding. He called Powell the enemy of the people when he rebuffed Trumps call for lower, even zero, interest rates to make him appear a hero. This mirrored Nixon and Reagan. Reagan was rebuffed Nixon was successful and initiated a decade of inflation. Interest rates cannot be controlled by politicians and political ambition without serious consequences.
Trump can never actually do half of what he said, because the consequences would be catastrophic. He will do enough damage even so. If allowed to control the Fed, impose broad tariffs like he has promised, and deport a large segment of our workforce, we can expect hard times ahead. The bond market already is picking up on that. Stocks are a populist greed-driven animal short term, but realistic long term. The Trump bump will center on a handful of sectors like energy and banking that are eager for less oversight and regulation and will reverse strongly in a year or so when inflationary pressures from populist fiscal policy start to show. The money Biden committed to much needed infrastructure will hopefully not be captured. Congress would have to be complicit in that., so who knows.
If he actually allows emotionally autistic Musk to cut spending as he promised to do at the rally ($2 Trillion), we will be returning to an era of seniors eating cat food. Musk himself said it would likely cause markets to tumble and cause hardship on the common people, not him of course, but you and me. Somehow, I think Trump will put Musk back in the closet now that he is done with him. Trump showed no interest in heavy handed cuts the first time.
Trump's promise to disband the Department of Education and supporting funding will collapse school budgets and further put America at a scholastic disadvantage in the world. He has proposed fining and suing private colleges for teaching history, civil rights, and politics he disapproves of. He wants compulsory patriotic propaganda in the schools. That just doesn't play. He's a social liberal who never had a patriotic bone in his body. I again suspect that was 'hyperbole' as he called it in his book.
There are far too many pieces of his agenda that would take years to push through, if he really intends to, it just won't happen before the midterm elections. If he starts out aggressive, he will do damage to the economy and people's lives, but most Americans, even some of his supporters, will push back if he implements some of what he promised.
Lara Trump wants him to change the Constitution to give him a third term, I doubt he will try, he's too freaking old.
I have faith that responsible public servants and the voting population in two years will contain the worse of his impulsive nature. We will get through it.
