Posts by Skimmer

8

The handwriting on the wall

by Skimmer in

jw
friends

the best leading indicator of the jw membership count is the baptism count as it directly measures the efficiency of the field service.

the baptism numbers represent the combined result of total hours, total literature, and total bible studies; it is the most reliable predictor of future membership counts.. and this is what has the wtbts worried.

they see the handwriting on the wall in nearly all of the developed countires and also some lesser developed countries.

Skimmer

The baptisms of children of members is also a part of the field service; the WTBTS sees it that way as far as counting bible studies, hours preached, and literature placed. The difference is that the audience in this case is somewhat captive; they can't close the door. At least until they move out of the house.

An intersting derived statistic is the conversion rate. This is nominally the number of baptisms divided by the number of bible studies. Some family bible studies may be with baptized members, but probably at least one person (and maybe more than one) in each of such is unbaptized. The WTBTS does not publish the total bible study count, but does give the average bible study count. Some bible studies may go on for years, but others may last only a few weeks. If we assume that a bible study lasts about one year, then the conversion rate for 2000 was:

(baptism count) / (average bible studies) = 288907 / 4766631 = 0.0606

So about six percent of bible studies lead to a baptism. Just slightly less than one out of sixteen.

Conversion rates for some (mostly) English speaking countries:

Australia: 8.23%
Britain: 7.31%
Canada: 6.99%
Ireland: 7.75%
New Zealand: 6.98%
United States: 7.13%

All of the above are higher than the average. Are study conductors in these countries more efficient? Perhaps so, although the baptism count overall trend for each of the above is not encouraging (to the WTBTS, at least).

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Another list: "lands" with ZERO baptisms in 2000:

American Samoa
Anguilla
Azerbajan
Comoros
Falkland Islands
Libya
Liechtenstein
Mayotte
Montserrat
Nauru
Nevis
Niue
Norfolk Island
Saba
St. Eustatius
St. Pierre & Miquelon
Tinian
Tokelau

8

The handwriting on the wall

by Skimmer in

jw
friends

the best leading indicator of the jw membership count is the baptism count as it directly measures the efficiency of the field service.

the baptism numbers represent the combined result of total hours, total literature, and total bible studies; it is the most reliable predictor of future membership counts.. and this is what has the wtbts worried.

they see the handwriting on the wall in nearly all of the developed countires and also some lesser developed countries.

Skimmer

The best leading indicator of the JW membership count is the baptism count as it directly measures the efficiency of the field service. The baptism numbers represent the combined result of total hours, total literature, and total bible studies; it is the most reliable predictor of future membership counts.

And this is what has the WTBTS worried. They see the handwriting on the wall in nearly all of the developed countires and also some lesser developed countries. A one year decline in baptisms can be easily dismissed as a statistical fluke. Two consecutive years of decline is harder to explain in a good light. Three of more years of baptism count decline can only mean that the field service in a country is near collapse, or has already collapsed.

Here is a list of those countries that have had three or more consecutive years of decline in baptisms.

Three consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Argentina
Cuba
Guatemala
India
Malawi
United States
Venezula

Four consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Britain
Estonia
Germany
Hungary
Latvia
Mexico
Portugal
Russia
Switzerland

Five consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Belgium
Canada
Finland
Poland
Slovakia
Sweden

Seven consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Czech Republic
Italy
Japan

Eight consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

Denmark

Eleven consecutive years of decline in baptisms:

France

8

Rutherford's Records Return

by Skimmer in

jw
friends

in the days of the wtbts under the presidency of rutherford a lifetime ago, jws hauled phonographs from door to door and played records of rutherford's advertising speeches.

a sort of early experiment with multimedia.. the idea has returned in a way.

you don't have to go to brooklyn or even a kingdom hall anymore to get a first taste of official wtbts media.

Skimmer

In the days of the WTBTS under the presidency of Rutherford a lifetime ago, JWs hauled phonographs from door to door and played records of Rutherford's advertising speeches. A sort of early experiment with multimedia.

The idea has returned in a way. You don't have to go to Brooklyn or even a Kingdom Hall anymore to get a first taste of official WTBTS media. They now have a video that they stream out on the Internet. I'd watch it for amusement, but I don't use Real Media software. If you do and would like to see it, check out: http://www.watchtower.org/library/vcpf/index.htm

4

Cast the first Stone or Show Mercy...which?

by ISP in

jw
friends

*** rbi8 john 8:1-8 ***.

8 but jesus went to the mount of olives.

2 at daybreak, however, he again presented himself at the temple, and all the people began coming to him, and he sat down and began to teach them.

Skimmer

Hello philo:

The first part of the eighth chapter of John (and also the last verse of the seventh chapter) is thought by many not to have been in the original manuscript and was instead a relatively early addition. Some ancient copies of the New Testament have this material placed in Luke instead of in John.

The WTBTS sometimes prints the above section in small type because it has doubts about its authenticiy. Perhaps they have a secondary reason in that the material is not usually observed in the WTBTS itself.

There is a similar case in the book of Mark. There are a couple of separate endings and each has some support in the ancient NT copies.

The study edition of the New American Bible has some good explanatory notes on the above.

Few commentators have said much about what it was that Jesus was writing in the sand in John:8. My guess is that it was the names of all the illicit sexual partners of the would be stone throwers.

13

Ask for your "Ordained Minister" ID C...

by LDH in

jw
friends

with all of the discussion going on on the board lately about "all jw being ordained ministers," i thought i'd point out something that may be new to a lot of you.. your local congregation has wbts id cards which states the 'cardbearer is an ordained minister.

' they won't volunteer these to you, i had to reg pio for two years before i got mine.

however, they can come in handy when traveling!

Skimmer

I remember the "ordained minister" cards from back in the early 1970s. The story I heard was that one of the reasons they were distributed was to help young male JWs in the United States with documentation to support a ministerial exemption from the military draft for the Vietnam War.

It's entirely possible that more than a few draft boards were convinced. There may have been some sort of unwritten agreement between Brooklyn and the elders in the United States that ministerial certification was allowed for draft eligible JWs only if they were regular in the pioneer service. It as if the WTBTS said to the unfortunate young men: "Work for us or work for the Army."

4

A poll for long time observers

by Skimmer in

jw
friends

here is a little poll for you.

the following is a lit of my predictions for changes for the wtbts and is presented in no particular order.

the idea here is to see if there is some kind of concensus concerning in what order the changes will occur.

Skimmer

Here is a little poll for you. The following is a lit of my predictions for changes for the WTBTS and is presented in no particular order. The idea here is to see if there is some kind of concensus concerning in what order the changes will occur. To respond to the poll, post an article in this topic givng the order from sooner to later of the prediction numbers. If you think that a particular prediction will not be fulfilled, mark it as "never". If you don't want to go through the whole list, just pick five or so predictions that you think most likely to come true.

The list:

1. Dropping or otherwise radically changing the 607BC/1914AD doctrine.
2. Dropping or otherwise radically changing the 1935 date of the "sealing" of the anointed.
3. Allowing blood transfusions as a "conscience mattter".
4. Dropping or otherwise radically changing the entire "anointed"/144,000/partaking doctrine.
5. Allowing non-anointed to serve on the governing body.

6. Dropping or otherwise radically making more liberal the disfellowship/shunning doctrine.
7. Allowing some interfaith activities as a "conscience matter".
8. Starting some real charitable programs.
9. Eliminating field service reporting.
10. Provide their own Internet service or browser software so that they can filter information to the rank and file.

11. Have at least five consecutive years of decreasing worldwide membership counts.
12. Start their own offical college/university with a serious attempt at accreditation.
13. Stop the open publication of detailed statisitics.
14. Hire out surplus printing capacity to other organizations.
15. Starting their own radio station or network.

16. Starting their own cable TV program or channel.
17. Starting their own direct mail advertising/soliciting program.
18. Starting their own telemarketing advertising/soliciting program.
19. Publish a successor to the _Proclaimers_ book with a complete history presented in chronological order and told with candor and honesty.

20. Drop or otherwise radically change the doctrine that all other religions are run by Satan.
21. Start passing a collection plate at meetings.
22. Membership drop to half (three million) of the current count.
23. Make available nearly all literature in electronic format.
24. Formal supported organization of youth activities (dances, camping trips, sports, etc).
25. Allow military service as a "conscience matter."

26. Allow flag salute or standing up for a national anthem as a "conscience matter."
27. Elimination of nearly all judical activity.
28. Cooperation with third party "do not call" registries.
29. Dropping secret files at the congregation level.
30. Dropping secret files at the branch level.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Here are my answers. However, do not read then until after you have thought about it yourself.

10 28 15 16 17 18 23 24 2 1 3 4 5 8 9 25 26 21 12 11 13 14 19 22 (by the year 2015).

Never: 6 7 20 27 29 30

Old/new ways of supporting pioneers

by Skimmer in

jw
friends

in the old days prior to the 1990 "donation" arrangement in the united states, regular publishers sold wtbts literature at a 25% mark-up (20% discount over retail) over the price they paid at the kingdom hall literature desk.

while the extra money was supposed to cover expenses, i don't recall anyone actually achieving this goal.

most people seemed to always have magazines left over that were eventually given away for free.. pioneers of various ranks got a different pricing schedule.

Skimmer

In the old days prior to the 1990 "donation" arrangement in the United States, regular publishers sold WTBTS literature at a 25% mark-up (20% discount over retail) over the price they paid at the Kingdom Hall literature desk. While the extra money was supposed to cover expenses, I don't recall anyone actually achieving this goal. Most people seemed to always have magazines left over that were eventually given away for free.

Pioneers of various ranks got a different pricing schedule. My memory is a little hazy on the exact numbers, but I seem to remember that there was a sliding scale with those who worked more hours getting lower prices and so higher allowed mark-ups. Full pioneers got the best deal with somewhere around a 300% mark-up (75% discount over retail); this was the way that the WTBTS "supported" the work. Yet even with this type of margin, I'm sure that the WTBTS was still making a nice profit.

Now that the "donation" arrangement is in place in those countries where the WTBTS would otherwise have to pay taxes, do pioneers today have any kind of support from the WTBTS? Do pioneers have a different and better "suggested" price list than other publishers?

11

"Problems"

by DevilsAdvocate_DA in

jw
friends

"life is a series of problems".

the problems we face will either defeat us or develop us -- depending on how we respond to them.

unfortunately most of us fail to see how jehovah wants to use problems for good in our lives.

Skimmer

>> Jehovah is just setting back watching us JACKASSES making JACKASSES out of ourselves.

He must be getting quite a laugh watching Brooklyn.

44

Contact Equals Suicide?

by patio34 in

jw
friends

didn't find an appropriate forum for this unique perspective:.

'our planet spends billions on searching for extraterrestrial life.

have they never thought seriously about the question: what would happen if we found it, or if it found us.

Skimmer

One item of interest that has just become known in the past few years is that it is becoming technologically feasible to image exosolar planets. This includes spectrographic analysis of atmospheres which in turn can give evidence of life. The plans for space based imaging arrays are already in place and all it takes is the cash for deployment.

So, if we can take pictures of nearby (ca. 10-20 lightyears) planetary systems, a more advanced civilization may be able to image across distances of 10 to 20 thousand lightyears, and this is a significant chunk of our galaxy. Therefore, turning off the radios is not going to do much for concealment; our atmosphere's spectrographic signature has been visible for thousands of millions of years. While it is not a broadcast of intelligent signs of life, it is still a broadcast of the existence of life.

If advanced civilizations are somewhere in our galactic neighborhood, they very likely have had sensors pointed our way for a long time.

Another point to consider is that within another century or so we should be able to build self replicating space probes with interstellar travel capability. Even with a modest average speed of a few hundred kilometers per second and a doubling time measured in decades, it would be possible for a self constructed fleet to deploy reporting stations throughout the entire galaxy in a few million years. That's not a very long time by astronomical standards; about a thousandth of the age of the galaxy. Has such a probe seeding been done already? (Compare with Arthur Clarke's sentinel hypothesis.) Perhaps it's happened more than once. Note that the probe fleet can continue even if the originating civilization collapses.

Personally, I think there's a good chance that we share the galaxy with others. But maybe not many, the count could be in the single digits. If there were many of them, some would be here by now.

My guess is that life up to the simple multicellular level (e.g., sponges) is quite common out there. That's what earth looked like for some two thousand million years. Is it probable that it could have stayed that way? The leap to complex animal life may have a very small probability, and the step to intelligent life might be even less likely. We just don't know.

9

Some still think Russell was right!

by professor in

jw
friends

while even the organization c.t.

russell founded, the watchtower society, now denies much of what he taught, there are still those who call themselves bible students, who follow russell to this day!.

a short history of the bible students:.

Skimmer

There is a group called the Layman's Home Missionary Movement that is also closely connected to Chuck Russell's fantasies.

If Russell were alive today, he most definitely would not be a JW.