by You Know 536 Replies latest jw friends
Honestly I don't read a fraction of the ridicule and nonsense you guys post. I hadn't realized until today that that's the spin you were putting on my words.
We're not spinning, we're quoting. Your words needed no spin. You said the financial system would be at war, and we've been questioning you ever since how that could even be possible. It's your stupid idea, not ours.
Let's see Mr Booby Slave ... you said ...
My proposed wager is this: I will wager 100 bucks, that before the end of the month of October that the present financial system will be in a full-blown panic crisis; and, if not in a crash-down mode, then certainly in a state of war.Now, weeks later you say ...
We don't need to spin your words, you do that yourself. Really you are quite funny, you knowEspecially since you were the one who wagered the financial system would be in a state of war. We've been ridiculing you about that statement ever since, you have totally ignored us every time we pointed it out, and now you pretend it is someone else who made the claim!Honestly I don't read a fraction of the ridicule and nonsense you guys post. I hadn't realized until today that that's the spin you were putting on my words. It is hilarious. / You Know
Also, I just realized Mr Booby has learned valuable lessons from his mommy dearest (org) - you can have your cake and eat it to - according to Mr Booby
stock markets go down = indication of 'full blown panic mode'
stock markets go up = indication of suckers investing money into collapsing system.
So no matter what happens there (in the 'side show' mind you) he get's to claim victory - very good Booby.
YOU dont KNOW finance-
oh yk, you continue to make a fool of yourself. your lack of knowledge in these areas is so incredibly obvious. it is really unneccesary for me to continue to point out the fallacies in your statements, for you do a better job than i ever could of proving your inability to grasp the financial picture. you come to the conversation obviously unprepared for intelligent responses; it really is sad to watch. yet i continue to respond, if for nothing else, so that readers that are NOT intimately involved in the financial world can see through your smokescreen of deceit.
The U.S. markets are valued at roughly $10 trillion, whereas the derivatives market is 10 times that and ballooning rapidly.as ive previously explained, the stock market and the derivatives markets are directly linked....they are not two separate issues as you would have us believe.
but I would imagine that the fund managers are panic buying by taking cash out of the money markets and throwing it into the fray to prop up stock prices so as to keep up the illusion.oh, so thats what happens every time we get a big fall, then a rally. the fund managers are panic buying.....LOL. yk, you have less than zero understanding of the cyclical nature of the stock market. there are ALWAYS falls, or dips as you like to say, and they are ALWAYS followed by periods of rising markets. you can set your watch to it, and anyone with even a small degree of intelligence can grasp this idea. saying that rallies are due to "panic buying" from fund managers is probably one of the most ridiculous notions youve made to date, and that is saying ALOT.
"OVERSOLD" is a term the brokers and analysts use anytime the stock market dips. You are merely parroting the standard line used by the hucksters who are always eager to persuade people not to sell.actually no, "oversold" is an actual measure of the market, thats why i quoted specific numbers correlating with how far the market was oversold. the level of an oversold market or an overbought market can be measured just as easily as the temperature of the air. i do not try to persuade people not to sell, in fact, when the markets get overbought, which they were in may of this year, and december of '99, we actually encourage selling. in fact, our firm went bearish at the beginning of 2000, and weve done much, much more selling than buying during that span. im not sure which "hucksters" youre referring to, but anyone that actually studies the technical side of the market effectively, can usually predict these periods of "oversold" and "overbought". it is in fact a science, and again, one which you obviously know nothing about. before spouting off your smokescreen about the term "oversold", you shouldve taken my advice and looked it up in a technical analysis guidebook. you might have saved yourself some humiliation.
At every phase of the collapse the analyst on CNBC, and elsewhere, were saying that stocks were oversold and that it was a great time to buy the dip.some were saying that yes, and some were saying to stay away (our technical anaylst for example has not been recommending buys on these dips, due to the fact that we hadnt had an indication that it was over yet). i agree though that cnbc isnt the place to get your market ideas. you should hear the people that call in saying they saw this stock or that stock on cnbc, and "should i buy it"? the problem is, at any given time on a station like cnbc, youve got 100 different analysts giving 100 opposing opinions. this firm is bullish, that firm is bearish.....this firm is recommending retails while that firm is downgrading retails. for most "green" investors, cnbc is nothing more than confusion, and they would be better served watching friends or fraiser. you no doubt get much of your "knowledge" from sources like cnbc, which may very well be why you are so uninformed and really just downright ignorant when it comes to market talk.
As long as there are suckers to be separated from their money you are going to have guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had.ive noticed youve mentioned down times such as 1929, and ive mentioned times like the crash of '87. do you think these were times that guys were running around talking about great bargains, and the "suckers" were suckered into buying? honestly, i wish i wouldve been one of those who could be "separated" from my money in 1930 or 1988, because many of those suckers are now millionaires on stock values alone.
It was a case of my underestimating your stupidity.speaking of underestimating stupidity, i believe i continue to underestimate yours yk, thinking that one of these times youll have an intelligent response to my constant habit of embarrassing you on this thread.
aa
You said the financial system would be at war, and we've been questioning you ever since how that could even be possible.
If you think that's what I meant you are more of an idiot than I even imagined. But the case could be made that the financial system is in a state of war in that it is reacting to the future prospects for war. If there are nuclear weapons used, by either the U.S. or the terrorists, than the whole system will react in ways that no one can presently imagine. At any rate, your world is coming down and there's nothing you can do about it. / You Know
So you think you can explain away what you said huh? Need I remind you ...
OK, ONCE AGAIN - Let's see Mr Booby Slave ... you said ...
quote:
My proposed wager is this: I will wager 100 bucks, that before the end of the month of October that the present financial system will be in a full-blown panic crisis; and, if not in a crash-down mode, then certainly in a state of war.
THE PRESENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL BE ... IN A STATE OF WAR.
Pretty plain words IMO. Don't pretend you can alter their meaning now, be a man and stand behind what you said, even if it is stupid.
Booby King's wet dream = the use of nukes SOMEWHERE or "Your world coming down"
He'd be right at home in one of Tallyman's pictures.
At any rate, your world is coming down and there's nothing you can do about it. / You Know
ah, the failsafe comment....one that cannot be disproved by any means at our disposal.......one to fall back on after being humiliated time and time again. in november of this year, when the dollar to yks dismay is NOT in fact worthless, he will no doubt fall back to statements such as these. "nya nya, nya nya nya.....your world is coming down....." [with thumbs in ears and tongue sticking out].
aa
as ive previously explained, the stock market and the derivatives markets are directly linked....they are not two separate issues as you would have us believe.
I didn't say they weren't linked. Some derivatives are tied to the indexes and individual stocks whereas most derivative contracts are linked to currency evaluations and interest rates of treasuries and bonds. I illustrated that by the case of LTCM.
oh, so thats what happens every time we get a big fall, then a rally. the fund managers are panic buying.....LOL.At times, yes, absolutely. The government and the Fed have on several occasions used their so-called plunge protection team to pump the markets up when the take a big fall. Panic buying is particularly evident now because the world is in such an unsettled condition and yet Americans are being called upon to do their patriotic duty and go out and buy, buy, buy. Numerous corporations have announced stock buy back schemes to try to shore up confidence. The central banks are furiously pumping billions of dollars into the system to prevent a liquidity freeze up that they know could bring the whole shebang crashing down in a heap. There is undeniable desperation on the part of the market makers to prevent a collapse. It is definetly not a cyclical event as you imagine, but rather a systemic shock that is reverberating through the system.
but anyone that actually studies the technical side of the market effectively, can usually predict these periods of "oversold" and "overbought". it is in fact a science, and again, one which you obviously know nothing about.That you would refer to the art of speculation as a science tells me just how deluded you are. I realize that there are various formulas and computer models that have been devised to help predict the future, but obviously they don't work when unanticipated events take place. How scientific is it to lose trillions of dollars of investor's money?
before spouting off your smokescreen about the term "oversold", you shouldve taken my advice and looked it up in a technical analysis guidebook. you might have saved yourself some humiliation.How have I been humiliated? If the markets crash tomorrow after you pronounced them to be technically "oversold" would that mean that your science failed? Hopefully you won't jump out of a window without coming back to the forum and explaining to me why your oversold market went belly up. / You Know
ydkf-
That you would refer to the art of speculation as a science tells me just how deluded you are.the art of speculation is not a science; determining the market level of "oversold" or "overbought" is a science, the same as measuring the air temperature (i had hoped this analogy would assist your simple mind with this idea).
. It is definetly not a cyclical event as you imagine
I realize that there are various formulas and computer models that have been devised to help predict the future, but obviously they don't work when unanticipated events take place.actually, they do. please refer to my previous post regarding market reaction during times of unanticipated tragedies. the markets react the same, every time. again, you can set your watch to it. and again, panic buying has nothing to do with it. the market is cyclical, even/especially during times of unanticipated events. tops and bottoms cannot be predicted, but rising and falling markets can be, every single time.
How have I been humiliated?by time and time again trying to sound as if you know about the markets and the financial picture, and time and time again getting proven ignorant by my responses.
If the markets crash tomorrow after you pronounced them to be technically "oversold" would that mean that your science failed?i do not believe that i ever said the markets could only reach a certain point of "oversold" before they would HAVE to rebound. in fact, in the example i used, the markets were even MORE oversold in 87 than they are now, which in itself proves that they can go lower. only a complete moron wouldve missed this point in my post. what i did say is that when the markets reach high levels of being "oversold", they ALWAYS rally. do they rally at -10? sometimes. do they rally at -5? yep, it happens. do they rally at -17 (such was the 10 day "oversold" level that i already mentioned we had reached as of friday)? well, turn on your tv, and youll see that everyone who bought on friday has just turned a nice profit. so, at what point of "oversold" do the markets rally? and can they then drop again? well, if i knew what point they would rally every time, then i wouldnt have to manage portfolios for a living, would i? and yes, of course they can drop again. for one thing yk, after todays rally, the markets will no longer be at a -17 "oversold" level (it will be recalculated). we could get another big drop, followed by another rally, etc, etc,......ITS CYCLICAL. we could get a complete market crash yet.....and again, we would then get a recovery. ITS CYCLICAL. this has been proven time and time again.....its tried and true, and again, you can set your watch to it.
i would like to reiterate a point i made in my last post, that i in fact fully expected you to ignore......
As long as there are suckers to be separated from their money you are going to have guys running around talking about the great bargains to be had.ive noticed youve mentioned down times such as 1929, and ive mentioned times like the crash of '87. do you think these were times that guys were running around talking about great bargains, and the "suckers" were suckered into buying? honestly, i wish i wouldve been one of those who could be "separated" from my money in 1930 or 1988, because many of those suckers are now millionaires on stock values alone.
......i fully expect you to ignore it again.
aa
determining the market level of "oversold" or "overbought" is a science
Those terms are relative and don't mean much, in that the primary driving force of the stock market is fear and greed. The most bought and sold commodity in the world is money itself, and the dollar in particular. Some analysts say that the dollar is overbought by over 50%. That makes your formula for determining stock values absurd. The life boats on the Titanic may have been considered in an overbought condition at one point until the fateful encounter with a giant ice cube, at which point they become quickly oversold.
the markets react the same, every time. again, you can set your watch to it.That is utter nonsense. Here's why: The global financial system that exists presently is a rather recent invention. The present floating exchange rate system has only been functioning since 1971 when Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. The derivatives market was miniscule 10 years ago. That being the case, the system has never been exposed to what would be a normal market cycle. Sometime after the LTCM collapse Greenspan admitted that it posed a systemic threat. Therefore, when people like yourself that are in the business refer to the stock market crash as a cyclic occurance you betray your own ignorance of how the system operates. That's why I say I have no interest in the stock market, only to the extent that its ongoing collapse is merely symptomatic of the crisis facing the whole financial system of things.
by time and time again trying to sound as if you know about the markets and the financial picture, and time and time again getting proven ignorant by my responses.You are apparently delusional. / You Know
