144 000 blasted by the MATH (WT lying again)

by hamsterbait 36 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  hamsterbait

  I just took Nathan Natas chart for numbers of memorial partakers since 1935.

  I worked out that on average 823 new partakers have been added every year since 1936, whilst on average 716 have been dying each year.

  What is especially interesting, is that when the TOTAL of new partaker numbers almost exactly matches that given in w96 15/8 p31 for 1935, is in the year 1995 - they year they began to deliberately create the fog around the "Generation" teaching. (I used actual figures, not averages here)

  I am now convinced that they have been paving the way for the Feb 15 NOOLITE since then.

  I disregarded the figure for 1935 itself, since the Witchtower gives two figures for partakers -

  w88 gives 27 006, and w96 52 465 (the figure I used to work out the "equality date" of 1995. The smaller figure gives an equality date of 1941)

  So the total memorial partakers living and dead since 1936 is almost 110 000. However the partakers given in Natas chart gives:

  1935 - 52 465

  1936 - 24 850, which means 27 615 either died or left. I calculated a 5% deathrate per annum in my working so gave the deaths for 1935 (not used in my reckoning) as 2623. Even so this smaller number still bumps the total since 1935 to 112 623.

  Notable jumps in new partakers were 1937; 11 564: 1946: 6375 and 1997: 785.

  How many Babble Students left the Borg after Rutherford took over? If this figure is high enough, it means that by implication the WT is actually denying the high numbers of Christians accepting the faith in the first century given in the Bible.

  They are also denying that Christ was able to save anybody for over 1800 years. Kind of scuppers their claim that the slave has always been on earth as claimed in the "Generation" change of Feb 15th.

  HB.
• 

  Must obey!

  Fascinating! However, I didn't understand what you meant in the third paragraph. Also don't quite understand what you mean by 'equality' date? Can you explain a bit more clearly, as this looks very interesting and potentially quite damaging to the Society's 144k literalness claim?

  Are you saying that using the Society's own officially reported stats, since 1935 there have been a minimum of 112,000 NEW partakers? WOW!

  & please, where are these figures worked out by Nathan Natas you refer to?

  Thanks for this research
• 

  Bryan

  Damn-it HB. You don't post serious numbers on New Year Eve!

  I'll try to read it again yomorrow

  Best,

  Bryan
• 

  MissingLink

  Any chance you could make a graph to clear this up?
• 

  hamsterbait

  When I say equality date I mean:

  For each year I worked out the number of new partakers as follows:

  Reported partakers minus 5% assumed to have died.

  Then take the following years reported figure and the resulting difference gives the number of new partakers.

  so taking at random 1963 to 1964.

  Partakers = 12 292. Of these I assumed 5% would die during the year =615.

  leaving at the end of 1963: 11 677 expected partakers for 1964.

  In 1964 however, there were 11 953 partakers meaning that 276 must have started taking the emblems in that year. This result was then added to the new partakers from the previous year to give a running tally.

  This running tally equalled the partakers of 1935 in 1994/1995.

  By adding together those who die and the new partakers for each year I arrived at 110 000 partakers in the course of the 71 years covered. If the drop of 27 615 in 1935 - 1936 is treated as deaths alone, that means between 1935 and 2007, a total of 137 000 had partaken of the emblems.

  Of course in Acts we are told that many thousands became Christians after Pentecost. Leaving few IF ANY places for annointed in the intervening centuries. This contradicts the claims made in the Feb 15th Watchtower about the "Generation".

  Unfortunately I don't know how to do a graph of this. Natas figures can be found doing a search for "PARTAKERS" in threads over the last month. His figures omitted the report for 1937, which I obtained from the yearbook: 35 172.

  HB
• 

  WTWizard

  This is an excellent point. Even just using 110,000 anointed, that leaves only 34,000 for the whole period between Pentecost 33 AD and 1935. They are trying to tell me that the work was totally dead after the first century. If 3,000 were added in one day, that leaves only another 31,000 for the whole time between. By the account of the Christians in Jerusalem in 70 AD, there has to have been significantly more than 34,000 total. And that doesn't even include the few that were alive (supposedly) following this.

  And that is the low estimate. Using 137,000 as the total, we only have a paltry 7,000 for the whole time between Pentecost and 1935. There is no way this could hold, since 3,000 were used up at Pentecost alone. I cannot see how they would have wasted all that time and only gotten a few thousand all those years, when 3000 were added in one day. I think the Watchtower Society is deliberately pulling a fast one.
• 

  MissingLink

  5% anual death rate seems really high. I would think more like 1.5%

  Do you have a spreadsheet you can share?
• 

  freedomfighter

  Very interesting looking at the Mathematics.

  What if 1000's of those who are partaking have got it wrong? They feel they are special and have "The Calling" so they partake.

  If they are wrong then they have a different destiny.

  Just a thought - I'm not trying to be a smart a$$.

  FF
• 

  hamsterbait

  MISSINGLINK -

  Yes at first 5% may seem high, but I arrived at this after examining the actual reported figures for memorial partakers.

  I give a smple of ten years, the actual decline reported by the WTS and my predicted figure.

  YEAR ACTUAL PREDICTED 5%

  1950 1104 1136

  1951 1398 1081

  1952 1038 1012

  1953 1299 959

  1954 1069 894

  1955 513 841

  1956 674 815

  1957 591 781

  1958 526 752

  1959 600 726

  1960 627 696

  For my purposes I decided the fit was good enough. In fact, it falls below the actual reported deaths for the first five years of the sample. and roughly equals it by the final year.

  The death rate from the reported figures is actually above the demographic figure of 1.8% you gave.

  For example using a predicted death rate of 1.8% for the years 1952 - 1953 we should expect 364 to have died, with 674 new partakers in 1953. But 1038 died.

  Between 1964 - 1965, 215 could be expected to die, with 108 new partakers in 1965. But 404 died.

  The death rate is so much higher than the expected death rate per thousand (8. 9) the annointed cannot possibly have some kind of magical immunity to death. So there must be another reason for their continued survival.

  HB
• 

  civicsi00

  FF, I'm sure that there are more than 1000 that got it wrong. For example, I know someone who told me that his dad claimed to be of the anointed, and then he wasn't, and then he was, and now he says he's not. His dad is like 92 years old, I think he's just senile. But what I always think about is the fact that before 1935, Russell and Rutherford were promoting that God was collecting all of the anointed first. Weren't all JW's back then automatically told they were going to heaven? It was only until more and more people were coming in that Rutherford had to figure out how to create a separate class, i.e. "great crowd", to try to explain the growth.