In many ways it appears as if the Watchtower movement is slowing down. A number of changes over the last few years certainly show that the Watchtower is in a period of transition.
They have cut back on the number of magazines they print as well as lowered the cost of production by eliminating things like hard backed books. They have sent home many workers from their largest operation in Brooklyn New York. They have acknowledged there are not enough people within the faith stepping up to fill leadership roles (A few years ago they began to tell their congregations publicly that there was a need for 30,000 - 40,000 Elders and Ministerial servants). Because of this void there is a strain on those currently in leadership roles, and the Watchtower has begun to cut back on it's scheduled meetings in order to relieve it.
There are other things as well. Baptism numbers are not as impressive as they used to be, especially when compared to the average peak publisher hours. Such comparisons show that while many people are being added to the Watchtower ranks, they are also loosing many members at the same time. There have also been changes in Watchtower policy regarding the counting of field service time, lowering the bar for more people to be counted as publishers. Depending upon how many people are taking advantage of this arrangement, the Watchtowers growth statics could be even more bleak than they currently appear.
I think these things (as well as many others) suggest that the Watchtower movement is in a very tumultuous position. Much of which I feel has to do with the growing irrelevance of their message.
There is very basic problem with religions that are based around specific apocalyptic speculation, namely that eventually those within the movement get tired of hearing that the 'end is near'.
Think of it this way. Who were the type of people in the late 1800's and early 1900's that joined the Bible Student/JW movement? Were they really interested in joining a religion that was over 120 years old? No! They wanted to be part of something that was new and exciting. Russell provided that during his lifetime, and Rutherford provided something so different from Russell that he kept the excitement going.
But the Watchtower has since become much more of an institution now. They are an 'established' faith. The problem is that their message does not reflect it.
Apocalyptic obsessions work great during the foundation of a group. They help bring together passion and excitement. But drawn out over the long term they can be very tiring. Look how much people sacrificed for the JW faith in the early part of the 20th century. Now look at were the movement is today. It has become much more routine. It follows a very predictable pattern.
A number of other groups eventually figured out that they could not obsess over the end of the world. It may have been what started the movement, but they would not continue to allow it to dominate. The transition experienced in Mormonism I think is a quite telling one. They have been quite successful in not letting their apocalyptic speculations get in the way of the future of the church.
But the Watchtower has not caught on, yet. They continue to discourage college when they should be starting the process of (gasp) starting their own. They call on members to consider a life without children when they should be telling people to grow nice big families full of true believers.
They continue to think short term. It is obvious that they still actually believe the end of the world is close. Amazingly, this dedication to their end times speculation could possibly tear apart the entire movement. Rather than planning for the future they are taking the risk of hoping the end comes before they have to deal with it.
Will they adapt and begin to plan for the future, or will they fade into disorganization and confusion. Time will tell. One thing is for sure, unless the movement begins to make some major changes like other contemporary institutions have, it is troubled times ahead.
The growing irrelevance of the Watchtower message
by drew sagan 94 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
-
drew sagan
-
BabaYaga
Very interesting take! Never thought about the established organization vs. the message before.
Thank you for this. -
purplesofa
Will they adapt and begin to plan for the future, or will they fade into disorganization and confusion.
They already are.
purps
-
drew sagan
They already are.
Are they really? So far what I have seen has been defensive action, not offensive. They are cutting back rather than adding.
The movement needs something new and fresh. This may yet come but it sure has not appeared yet. -
daniel-p
Nice write-up, drew. I agree that the WTS just does not get it, or understand their place in society. They want all sorts of benefits given fom society, but don't want to contribute to it or change it.
-
purplesofa
I find it hard to believe that people really think the organization is going to crumble. We can put huge dents in it as apostates.
It's a multi-billion dollar business.
Those men running the place are not stupid.
They are changing and adapting. All businesses do that. Religions do to.
Unless you think the planet will come to a higher consciousness and be done away with religion, I think the WT is here to stay.
purps
edited to add: I do agree with what you say, I just don't think they will crumble and fall, not anytime soon anyway.
-
hillbilly
I see a shift from "retail" religion to "mail order" for the WT in the coming future. The message is a parody now days.. suitable for info-mercials and cd sales.
Buildings, meetings, and congregated people take time away from the "message"... a Kingdom Hall is not a profit center.
The Lawyers have it all figured out.
Hill
-
drew sagan
I do agree with what you say, I just don't think they will crumble and fall, not anytime soon anyway.
First of all, I'd like to be very clear. I do not believe that people who have left the organization, aka "apostates" will be the demise of the Watchtower Society in a way that many would assume. First, I think that the role of ex-jws is much more important in regards to the many people that end up not entering the Watchtower system at all. People who may be studying or interested in the faith, but after doing research on the net decide not to.
Also, I am not looking in the short term. I'm thinking more of 30-50 years down the road. Were will the movement be then? I really believe that it fundamentally has to change dramatically. The current structure, or even something that closely resembles it is not prepared to support such a drawn out presence on the world scene. One thing I continue to think of is the youth of the movement. They continue to tell the youth to reach out for positions and privileges they never can receive (gilead, CO, ect), not to mention that usually most of the prestige is given to men. The youth in this organization have nothing realistic that they can reach out and take as their own. This is a huge mistake on the Watchtowers part and shows me that they are not as sophisticated and intelligent as their image may suggest. Smart people plan for the future. Stupid people insist that there will be no future (in this world). I remember a five or so years back the Watchtower published a brochure for their youth that told them all the privileges they could reach out for. It was unrealistic. Gilead for example graduates two classes a year I believe, and those people are usually in their 30's. What the hell kind of goal is that! Work for a decade and a half after high school and maybe you can go to a school with only 100 students. Get real. Nobody reaches out because there is nothing to reach out and take.
Currently the Watchtower is on a path of growing isolation. They are becoming more and more disengaged from the world around them. They control the flow of all information and have restricted what is published on the internet. Rather than engage those who criticize them they ignore the critics and suppress intellectuals from going out and defending the faith on an academic level. They have gone from the time of Russell where debates occurred frequently by those in charge of the articles in the magazines, to complete isolation by the writers of the magazines. We don't even know who writes the articles. They are no names, isolated from any criticism and academic responsibility. It may serve a purpose, but not in the long term.
What I picture is a continued weakening of the Watchtowers power over the average member. Eventually more and more people like Greg Stafford are going to start popping up saying that the group has lost it's way and needs to reform. It is people like him who are really the most dangerous to the Watchtower Society. While many who leave argue that all of the teachings of the JWs are wrong, people like Stafford maintain much of the theological doctrine.
When reformers try to take over a faith it can descent into confusion. This is possible if the WTS allows itself to weaken during the next 30-50 years. The problem is that in order to solidify the movement and push it forward it will have to begin to give up long held taboos and teachings. They can change, and may yet still. But I see nothing that suggests it's on its' way yet. Just more isolationism which amounts to denying the obvious. -
hamilcarr
One thing is for sure, unless the movement begins to make some major changes like other contemporary institutions have, it is troubled times ahead.
Spot on! They'll have to embrace change, or perish.
But that's the problem: a restorationist group doesn't like change (every change could be interpreted as another apostasy). It could mean their end. I don't think they'll reach the 22st century.
-
restrangled
Think of it this way. Who were the type of people in the late 1800's and early 1900's that joined the Bible Student/JW movement? Were they really interested in joining a religion that was over 120 years old? No! They wanted to be part of something that was new and exciting. Russell provided that during his lifetime, and Rutherford provided something so different from Russell that he kept the excitement going.
This is so true. I think even in the 60's leading up to the mid 70's the excitement still held. As a child I remember there was a feeling in the air, many new releases, armaggedon was just around the corner, you could hear a pin drop between some speaker's pauses. People would attend 8 day assemblies, from 9am to 9pm. The food was good, there were 2 hour breaks and you could still buy food during the talks because there were so many to feed. There was a real connection between everyone. Most of the talks were about predicting the future and getting the message out to others.
Now what I hear from my 73 year old parent are statements that contain, I don't know if I can sit through another one, I can't wait to get home, when I hear amen I'm outta there! She use to feel charged up, now it all just exhausts her.
I don't see the same anticipation or excitment out of any family members still in....just endless plodding through the weekly schedule of meetings, requirements, and the dreaded 3 day assemblies.
r.