If there is a God, then true bonafide refinements come from God --End of story.
But the next logical question would be how this information works its way from heaven down into the minds of men, especially with so many different religions claiming to represent God in some way. And this is the point where it seems to me that JW reasoning typically devolves into generalites.
Guidance can only take two basic forms: For example, if I invited you to my house for dinner, there are two methods I could use to guide you there.
1. I could give you the address, maybe draw you a little map and let you figure it out. --This would be passive guidance. Passive guidance is largely dependent upon you and your own reasoning abilities since it is possible to misread or misundertand someone else's map.
2. I could ride with you in the car, or stay with you on the phone while you drove, telling you to, "Take your next left, then go straight and take your third right" etc. etc. --This would be active guidance. Active guidance is much less dependent upon you, since you're being told exactly what to do.
When the God of the Bible is involved, Active guidance constitutes true plenary inspiration in all the forms described therein. The JW leadership disclaims true plenary inspiration. --No dreams, no visions, no prophecy, no speech of knowledge, no gifts of the spirit, no revelations, no writing on the wall, no contact with angels, etc.
This leaves us with passive guidance. God has given us the "address" and drawn us a "map." --That map is the Bible. But since we're all fallible, it's possible to misread and misunderstand that map from time to time. This is the most reasonable, logical explanation for the JW leadership's various faux pas over the years.
--But this explanation does not suit the JW leadership at all. Every single person and organization who sincerely reads and tries to follow the Bible has an equal and identical claim to this form of guidance and this explanation if carried to its logical conclusion would rob them of much of their authority and unique position.
The result is a nebulous, 'betwixt and between' picture where the JW leadership presents itself as more than just sincere Bible students, but less than inspired prophets. Exactly what empowers them to be more than just sincere Bible students is only explained in generalities --never specifics.
As others have pointed out on this thread, "Refinements", "Adjustments", "New light" etc. in the JW faith are more often than not, simply the correction of previous mistakes and the source of the correction is usually outside pressure. (e.g. Passage of time, lawsuits)
With respect, Spike, I think presenting "Refinements" as anything more than this is a very good illustration of the pitfall of trying to reason in generalities.