Publishers per population by Continent
The Americas have by far the highest saturation of Witnesses, with one witness for every 249 people. This is followed by Europe and Oceania. These are all the traditionally Christian Continents and it becomes immediately apparent that the success of Jehovah’s Witnesses is dependant on the success of Christianity before it.
Africa has about half the rate of Witnesses of Europe, which follows on from Africa being fairly evenly split between Muslims and Christians. Christian African countries have high Witness density levels, similar to Latin America.
In the Hindu/Muslim area of Asia/Middle East there is a tiny fraction of Jehovah’s Witnesses, signified by the tall green column. Despite a population of over 4 billion people in Asia/Middle East, the number of publishers increased by only 12,399.
Growth by continent
This is where it gets interesting is interesting. Despite the high saturation of Witnesses in Latin America and Christian Africa, these two continents continue to have the highest growth rates. Both have potential to keep growing, as they also have the most Bible Studies per publisher, as shown further on. This is not a good situation, and it seems the Watchtower is a victim of its own success. Growth is occurring, and will continue to occur, in poor areas, adding to the Watchtower’s growing financial difficulties.
• Note: The large drop for Oceania seems to be due to an error in the 2010 global report. Even though there was no change in the number of countries listed in the full report for Oceania, the global reports between 2010 and 2011 showed 1 less country and a population drop. As far as I am aware, global warming has not claimed any Pacific Island countries yet. Further, the 2010 continent totals inaccurately added up to 7.2 billion, and was correctly adjusted down to 6.9 billion in 2011, with the majority of error being in the population report of Asia.
Bible Studies (or rather Watchtower Publication Studies)
Studies By Continent
The USA, Europe and Oceania have only around 0.6 of a Bible Study per publisher, including children, so there is unlikely to be any significant growth in those regions in the coming future.
The high areas are Latin America and Africa, therefore this is where the highest growth for the Watchtower is likely to come from. Africa has over 2 studies per publisher and Latin Americas has around 1.3, once you remove the USA which has only 0.6.
Studies Compared to Growth
The Average Hours per Publisher graph and the Studies per Publisher graph align closely for the last 50 years. As the hours per publisher rise, so do Bible Studies. There is an upwards trend in these graphs as well, indicating that over the decades Witnesses are doing more preaching, (or becoming more lenient in how they count time.)
What becomes apparent is a strong negative trend for the Watchtower, as converting Bible Studies into publishers is dropping rapidly. In the early 1970’s, 0.8 Studies and 200 hours resulted in a growth rate around 10%. In the early 1990’s Studies had increased to 1.0 and hours to 220, but the growth rate had fallen to 7%. In the late 2000’s, 1.0 Study and 220 hours only converts to fewer than 3% growth.
In the 3 years between 2009 and 2011 there has been a markedincrease in the number of Bible Studies per publisher, but little increase in growth. This is possibly because more people are counting studying with their children since the Book Study night ended and was replaced with family night. The other period with a higher level of studies in comparison to “hours preached” was prior to the 1975 hype.
