Watchtower Growth by CONTINENT and other Statistical Gems

by jwfacts 42 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Black Sheep

  NZ beats it with 84% and sits at position 11.

  I don't see a lot of Kiwi apostates around here
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  slimboyfat

  It might be interesting to compare these with Mormon figures, which are even more skewed toward the Americas.
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  steve2

  jwfacts you continue to be da man. Many thanks for yourstudious endeavours -most helpful indeed!

  I agree with Black Sheep: Most New Zealand JWs wouldn't know an apostate thought if they came across one. New Zealanders in general regardless of religion are blissfully easy going and boringly unconcerned about the intricacies of too much intelligent thinking. Ignorance rules = yay! Perhaps that's too harsh but there's more than a grain of truth in it.
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  TheOldHippie

  "What becomes apparent is a strong negative trend for the Watchtower, as converting Bible Studies into publishers is dropping rapidly. In the early 1970’s, 0.8 Studies and 200 hours resulted in a growth rate around 10%. In the early 1990’s Studies had increased to 1.0 and hours to 220, but the growth rate had fallen to 7%. In the late 2000’s, 1.0 Study and 220 hours only converts to fewer than 3% growth."

  Two things make this difficult to analyze: Firstly, that one does not have to be baptised to be a publisher, and therefore many studies start publishing, drop out, may start again, drop out, and so it is extremely difficult to compare baptisms-publishers-growth. One of the biggest branch offices a few years ago stated that 3/4 of the publishers in that country were baptised. Secondly, you would have to find out the age composition of the publishers. In areas with little growth, one would expect an increasing average age and therefore an increasing death rate or increasing rate of publishers ceasing to be publishers because of health/disability reasons. In areas with a bigger growth, average age would decrease and the death rate decrease - but then again drop outs would be not because of age but because of leaving. Continents have huge differences within themselves, too. Africa, as mentioned, with a Moslem North and a Christian centre/South - Europe with a wealthy and predominantly Protestant West/North and a poor and Orthodox East and a in the middle and Catholic South - Asia with Buddhism and Hinduism and Shintoism and China, and therefore with widely different views on life and fate - USA with its different cultures as to Caucasian/Latin/Black cultures etc.

  The more one looks at figures like these, the more difficult it is making a meaningfull statement.
• 

  Jeffro

  This is where it gets interesting is interesting.

  Interesting.
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  Jeffro

  I saw the 'choose your religion' chart a few days ago on Facebook, which I then reposted. It does illustrate fairly well, albeit humorously, that religion is not so much based on logic as exposure.
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  Jeffro

  Oceania is not a common term, even in Australia, which normally is referred to as part as Asia Pacific (APAC).

  Oceania, though not widely used in Australia, is not an especially unusual term. It is the area comprising Australia, Polynesia, Melanesia and Micronesia. Oceania is generally used geographically (to incorporate the Australian continent with the other outlying islands), as opposed to the Asia Pacific region which is generally used geopolitically and financially.
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  Phizzy

  Thanks for all the hard work ! I agree that analysing statistics is notoriously difficult, hence the old saw "There are lies, damned lies and statistics", the main danger being that they are used selectively , even if unconsciously, to prove a point.

  But , by the graphs and figures you have made it plain, and thanks again, that the WT has a problem, whatever "increase" they crow about , underneath is an outflow , a hole in the bucket, that consists of people they would be much better off retaining if only they could.

  The main growth being in the poor areas means eventually a cash flow problem that may not be solved by the property money making arm of the (religion) business. It takes time to turn over property, expenses are on a daily basis.
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  jwfacts

  TheOldHippie - You make some excellent points.

  You can be a publisher without being baptised, and not all baptised meeting attendees are publishers. Strictly speaking, you need to be a baptised publisher to be counted as a Jehovah's Witness, and in line for salvation. So the figures cannot give an exact idea of who really is a JW. However, since the classifications have be fairly constant for decades, the trends are meaningful.

  Most easily identifiable is the dramatic decline in effectiveness of the preaching work, and the effect this has on growth. You make an interesting point that if JWs are aging, they could be dying out quicker than the global death rate. However, growth is down in both baptisms and publishers, so the death of older ones cannot be the primary explanation. For JWs that want to believe Armageddon is about to come, this can be dismissed as evidence that the preaching work is almost complete. However, for anyone that does not believe in Armageddon, it is a sure sign that the Watchtower is loosing its relevance with the general population.
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  nugget

  It is always interesting to see the way witness activity is spread out accross the different continents and regional variations.

  One thing you will need to take into account is the changes to the way data is collected by the society change year on year so they artificially inflate the results the base data never remains constant. Some growth is actually reactivation of existing believers and returning DF'd. If only we had the figure of new witnesses so we could seperate out those from born ins and old witnesses.

  Recent changes that affect overall data are things such as the 15 minute reporting rule and 30 hour auxiliary pioneer requirement last memorial. Also the introduction of family study night has increased the reporting of family bible studies. As in the past a proportion of the bible studies are born ins and that also accounts for baptised but they probably account for a greater proportion of the bible studies now than before since it is expected to report family bible study activity of proof that family bible study night is taking place. Every time the figures start to flatline the society makes a change and there is an increase.

  What would be useful is to know the number df'd and da'd and whether that has gone up or down in recent years. We also have no way of knowing how many listed as publishers are true believers nor how many hours are genuine since anecdotal evidence indicates that a proportion of time spent on the service is misreported. It is the percentage of true believers that is the issue since these are the hard core at the centre of the congregation and will stick with it until the bitter end and it is how fast they decline that will be a key indicator.

  Once all the things that artificially inflate the figures are taken out there may well be a decline.